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I agree with you that this will be interesting to watch. I too hope for some rain from this. I know my yard will appreciate it! What are your feelings on this one? The intensity of this storm doesn't seem to ramp up too much correct?

rnmm wrote:I agree with you that this will be interesting to watch. I too hope for some rain from this. I know my yard will appreciate it! What are your feelings on this one? The intensity of this storm doesn't seem to ramp up too much correct?

I am thinking a possible TD or even weak TS IF it get offshore far enough. Should it develop closer to the coast or inland, the track would likely bring heavy rainfall and some breezy conditions across the Northern Gulf Coast IMO. Regardless, some folks are going to get a lot of rain and potentially flooding rains at that.

Well now...

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1130 AM EDT SUN 15 AUGUST 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 16/1100Z TO 17/1100Z AUGUST 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-076

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA GULF OF MEXICO - REMNENTS OF TD 05
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 16/1800Z
B. AFXXX 0405A INVEST
C. 16/1700Z
D. 29.5N 86.0W
E. 16/1700-2200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 71
A. 17/0600Z- 1200Z
B. AFXXX 0505A CYCLONE
C. 17/0500Z
D. 29.5N 87.5W
E. 17/0500-1200Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 6 HRLY FIXES
IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.

Most of the activity is offshore, and it, with what is onshore, is moving southward. My take on this, at the moment, is that we will indeed have redevelopment. I think it will be well offshore, and it could be enough to get a name. As far as Texas rains go... That depends on how a few things pan out over the next few days. Maybe equal chances either way. I'd be careful to assume strength and landfall, ATM.. Get it far enough offshore, given enough pre landfall time, this system will have the ability to quickly get it's act together..


Pray for rain, folks... Bring it on.

12Z GFS suggests a slow mover...

66 hours



78 hours



90 hours



102 hours



114 hours

Noon...

Watching carefully for any MCV (mesoscale vortex) that may spin up. Certainly brings back memories of a mid August back in 83...

That is does srainhoutx.

srainhoutx wrote:Watching carefully for any MCV (mesoscale vortex) that may spin up. Certainly brings back memories of a mid August back in 83...

HAHA yes it does. Umm makes me think of my avatar.....

Nice blow up of convection

Interestingly enough, that storm in 1983 formed as a depression on August 15th.
Made landfall on the 18th.
Hmmmm.

Man that was a horrible 2 weeks without power.
It was hot even as a 10 year old.

Rip76 wrote:Interestingly enough, that storm in 1983 formed as a depression on August 15th.
Made landfall on the 18th.
Hmmmm.

Man that was a horrible 2 weeks without power.
It was hot even as a 10 year old.

It was my first hurricane. Funny how an event such as that as a child determined (at least for me it did) what I would do with my life.

451
ABNT20 KNHC 151731
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN AUG 15 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...THE REMNANT OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
FIVE...IS LOCATED OVER SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA. THIS SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE NORTHERN GULF COAST LATER
TODAY AND TONIGHT AND IT COULD EMERGE OVER THE GULF WATERS BY EARLY
MONDAY...WHERE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME
DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

12Z HWRF...

srainhoutx wrote:12Z HWRF...

What is your thinking Steve? A weak T.S. somewhere east of Lake Charles? Flash flooding for sure, somewhere?

Looks we may see Danielle as weak TS. IF I were guessing, probably landfall somewhere near Vermillion Bay, maybe a bit W of there. Certainly looks like a flooding event for some folks IMO.

I have a feeling, I'll be running my sprinklers next week.

srainhoutx wrote:Looks we may see Danielle as weak TS. IF I were guessing, probably landfall somewhere near Vermillion Bay, maybe a bit W of there. Certainly looks like a flooding event for some folks IMO.

I was thinking Grand Chenier myself....

Landfall will be somewhere from S. E. Texas, to Central LA. You can take that to the bank. Certainly no further east than NOLA, but I think this will push a bit further south than some may think at this point, so NOLA would seem less likely.

We'll see..

I wonder if watches at the very least would be posted once the low itself moves off shore given the short time frame from a possible redevelopment to a move inland.