September 2021: Hurricane Nicholas

[Cpv17]

For the first time, ECMWF shows “development”. But, like the CMC, it’s in the BOC.

In regards to 91L, it still gets somewhat stuck/suppressed by the building ridge... it’s just after landfall on this run.

The Euro is pretty much a no go on the next system for now. We’ll see what the EPS shows.

[weatherguy425]

For the first time, ECMWF shows “development”. But, like the CMC, it’s in the BOC.

In regards to 91L, it still gets somewhat stuck/suppressed by the building ridge... it’s just after landfall on this run.

The Euro is pretty much a no go on the next system for now. We’ll see what the EPS shows.

Also remember that the ECMWF (especially operational) has struggled with genesis, in particular, the past couple seasons. Just noting the subtle change in the operational model.

[Texaspirate11]

91L is going east i dont see how it will come to us
The next one may come but everything depends on this ridge. Ill wait and watch

[don]

For the first time, ECMWF shows “development”. But, like the CMC, it’s in the BOC.

In regards to 91L, it still gets somewhat stuck/suppressed by the building ridge... it’s just after landfall on this run.

The Euro is pretty much a no go on the next system for now. We’ll see what the EPS shows.

Actually it seems like the Euro and Canadian models do show development also,but they have the development on the Pacific side instead of the Atlantic like the GFS.As they show the energy crossing over central America into the pacific and consolidating there instead of in the Atlantic.

[weatherguy425]

For the first time, ECMWF shows “development”. But, like the CMC, it’s in the BOC.

In regards to 91L, it still gets somewhat stuck/suppressed by the building ridge... it’s just after landfall on this run.

The Euro is pretty much a no go on the next system for now. We’ll see what the EPS shows.

Actually it seems like the Euro and Canadian models do show development also,but they have the development on the Pacific side instead of the Atlantic like the GFS.As they show the energy crossing over central America into the pacific and consolidating there instead of in the Atlantic.

Both do now have closed surface lows in the BOC even with the very southerly consolidation.

[Cpv17]

The Euro is pretty much a no go on the next system for now. We’ll see what the EPS shows.

Actually it seems like the Euro and Canadian models do show development also,but they have the development on the Pacific side instead of the Atlantic like the GFS.As they show the energy crossing over central America into the pacific and consolidating there instead of in the Atlantic.

Both do now have closed surface lows in the BOC even with the very southerly consolidation.

Remember the strong signal the GEFS showed consistently with Ida? I don’t see this with either 91L or the next system.

[Stratton20]

We will see, but I personally think their is a decent chance we will see something in the gulf late next week, track and strength are just a speculation though

[Cpv17]

We will see, but I personally think their is a decent chance we will see something in the gulf late next week, track and strength are just a speculation though

I think there’s a decent chance there could be development but as far as anything strong goes I doubt that at the present time.

[Stratton20]

Just tested positive for Covid-19 today unfortunately, I guess on the bright side is this gives me more time to focus on weather, and the tropics now that im going to be by myself for the next 10 days:(, just hope the GFS is wrong tho about next week though

[weatherguy425]

Actually it seems like the Euro and Canadian models do show development also,but they have the development on the Pacific side instead of the Atlantic like the GFS.As they show the energy crossing over central America into the pacific and consolidating there instead of in the Atlantic.

Both do now have closed surface lows in the BOC even with the very southerly consolidation.

Remember the strong signal the GEFS showed consistently with Ida? I don’t see this with either 91L or the next system.

True, but such a strong symbol isn’t necessarily common either. Other systems have developed with less support.

Worth a watch.

12Z EPS is a bit more robust with 91L with some support for a stall and slide west under the building ridge.

There is also a signal, albeit weak, for BOC or Caribbean development in the longer range.

[Cpv17]

Both do now have closed surface lows in the BOC even with the very southerly consolidation.

Remember the strong signal the GEFS showed consistently with Ida? I don’t see this with either 91L or the next system.

True, but such a strong symbol isn’t necessarily common either. Other systems have developed with less support.

Worth a watch.

12Z EPS is a bit more robust with 91L with some support for a stall and slide west under the building ridge.

There is also a signal, albeit weak, for BOC or Caribbean development in the longer range.

The EPS is hard to ignore for 91L and Texas.

[Stratton20]

weatherman425 the 12z EPS is practically a worse case scenario, but qe will see how this plays out

[weatherguy425]

weatherman425 the 12z EPS is practically a worse case scenario, but qe will see how this plays out

Not a worst case scenario, simply implies a risk of a landfalling tropical system somewhere along the Texas coast.

[Stratton20]

weatherman425 oh i meant the stall part, we definitely dont need that if it came towards texas

[Scott747]

18z GFS is a little slower with 91l but still eventually picks it up and out. It's also a little faster with our 'phantom' system in the Caribbean and allows it to move further n and e as the ridge isn't as deep when it builds back in allowing a track towards Louisiana.

[DoctorMu]

Meanwhile back at the ranch, it's Surface of the Sun Saturday! Gameday!

Upper 90s. Heat Index approaching 108°F. 0% chance of rain

[DoctorMu]

91L, next system probably bound for Louisiana.

[Stratton20]

We will see about that second system, looks like we have something to possibly track in the gulf next week, but beyond that, strength and a possible track are just a speculation, however considering the GFS has had a hurricane on its last 3-4 model runs, definitely something to really watch , Texas and Louisiana need to be on gulf watch next week

[Texaspirate11]

91L, next system probably bound for Louisiana.

Thats what ive been saying lol
The second one..well it seems that the GFS always
Wants to wipe us out first.

[weatherguy425]

Let’s not get too confident in any one thought or gut feeling - especially so many days out, y’all.