February 2021: Arctic Outbreak/Warmup Begins

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cperk
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Cpv17 wrote: ↑Sun Feb 07, 2021 11:07 am
Kingwood36 wrote: ↑Sun Feb 07, 2021 11:00 am Cmc trended warmer with the euro...geez....lol see call me crazy but I think some way some how the euro will win out
I’ve never been so confused in all my years of keeping up with the weather.
Yeah this is some serious crazy,but we still have 7 or 8 days before the event hopefully by mid week we will have consensus.
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Kingwood36
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cperk wrote: ↑Sun Feb 07, 2021 11:16 am
Cpv17 wrote: ↑Sun Feb 07, 2021 11:07 am
Kingwood36 wrote: ↑Sun Feb 07, 2021 11:00 am Cmc trended warmer with the euro...geez....lol see call me crazy but I think some way some how the euro will win out
I’ve never been so confused in all my years of keeping up with the weather.
Yeah this is some serious crazy,but we still have 7 or 8 days before the event hopefully by mid week we will have consensus.
Ya I wont really start to get my hopes up till around Wednesday or Thursday if its still showing a winter storm
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don
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Yep we still have a ways to go. But this is definitely not the first time we've seen the GFS and EURO diverge.I expect the models will start to converge on a solution over the next 48-72 hours.
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Kingwood36
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I'm starting a drinking game. I'm taking a shot everytime the euro and gfs have different solutions lol
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Cpv17
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Well it looks like the Euro has trended slightly towards the GFS for next weekend. Baby steps folks.
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don
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The EURO is struggling trying to figure out this complex setup. As the 12z 500mb pattern looks substantially different from just last nights 0z run. The 12z has trended colder by a good 10 degrees from the previous run.We will have to see if its the start of a trend or not.
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Stormlover2020
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Models always struggle with shallow air masses
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DoctorMu
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Cpv17 wrote: ↑Sun Feb 07, 2021 10:11 am My goodness, the 12z ICON model is insane with the cold.
GFS, ICON went mega colder, Canadian went warmer, one of the Ensembles is colder. Euro warmer. Unresolved.
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DoctorMu
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Cpv17 wrote: ↑Sun Feb 07, 2021 8:18 am
Kingwood36 wrote: ↑Sun Feb 07, 2021 8:12 am Man this just keeps getting pushed back again and again..what is preventing it from just letting go?
The SE ridge I believe. And maybe not enough blocking up near Alaska/far western Canada.
There's plenty of cold air in the Midwest. It's modifying below Tulsa (must be the Ozarks ;) )

...or SW flow aloft...

https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/c ... &length=24
Last edited by DoctorMu on Sun Feb 07, 2021 2:46 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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DoctorMu
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don wrote: ↑Sun Feb 07, 2021 10:52 am Yep the 12z GFS has a major winter storm now over southeast Texas instead of just freezing drizzle like it had yesterday. As the shortwave passes over the area this weekend.
I approve this message. 8-)
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Kingwood36
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Freezing rain shifted south to the coast with the 12Z GFS
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djmike
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Wouldn't that be something if it went too far south and skipped us altogether. Lol
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(IH-10 & College Street)
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Texaspirate11
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Kingwood36 wrote: ↑Sun Feb 07, 2021 2:50 pm Freezing rain shifted south to the coast with the 12Z GFS
Oh lovely.
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Kingwood36
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djmike wrote: ↑Sun Feb 07, 2021 3:03 pm Wouldn't that be something if it went too far south and skipped us altogether. Lol
Well it is 2021....lol
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Cpv17
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DoctorMu wrote: ↑Sun Feb 07, 2021 2:32 pm
Cpv17 wrote: ↑Sun Feb 07, 2021 10:11 am My goodness, the 12z ICON model is insane with the cold.
GFS, ICON went mega colder, Canadian went warmer, one of the Ensembles is colder. Euro warmer. Unresolved.
Euro actually went colder compared to 0z and it’s ensemble has below average temps now too.
Last edited by Cpv17 on Sun Feb 07, 2021 3:50 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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don
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djmike wrote: ↑Sun Feb 07, 2021 3:03 pm Wouldn't that be something if it went too far south and skipped us altogether. Lol
Lol the model actually shows frozen precipitation for all of southeast Texas.Its just that the northern half of the precipitation is sleet so it doesn't show up as freezing rain accumulation.Not that it really matters this far out lol.
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Cpv17
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don wrote: ↑Sun Feb 07, 2021 3:29 pm
djmike wrote: ↑Sun Feb 07, 2021 3:03 pm Wouldn't that be something if it went too far south and skipped us altogether. Lol
Lol the model actually shows frozen precipitation for all of southeast Texas.Its just that the northern half of the precipitation is sleet so it doesn't show up as freezing rain accumulation.Not that it really matters this far out lol.
I’m not even concerned about precip this far out. Maybe by Thursday I’ll start looking more at that. I’m just worried about the temps right now.
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sambucol
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Cpv17 wrote: ↑Sun Feb 07, 2021 4:01 pm
don wrote: ↑Sun Feb 07, 2021 3:29 pm
djmike wrote: ↑Sun Feb 07, 2021 3:03 pm Wouldn't that be something if it went too far south and skipped us altogether. Lol
Lol the model actually shows frozen precipitation for all of southeast Texas.Its just that the northern half of the precipitation is sleet so it doesn't show up as freezing rain accumulation.Not that it really matters this far out lol.
I’m not even concerned about precip this far out. Maybe by Thursday I’ll start looking more at that. I’m just worried about the temps right now.
Same here.
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Kingwood36
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18z GFS trending warmer...here we go🤦‍♂️

Damn alot warmer..I knew it would go to the euro...let's make a spring topic now lol
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Cpv17
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Kingwood36 wrote: ↑Sun Feb 07, 2021 4:29 pm 18z GFS trending warmer...here we go🤦‍♂️

Damn alot warmer..I knew it would go to the euro...let's make a spring topic now lol
Yep. 18z GFS just caved to the Euro. 57 is going to be very happy. He gets his way too much lol
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