August 2020:

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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tireman4
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As I agree with Scott, still need lots of more model runs to go, more Recon to put the information into the models. We are WAY out from a definite path. Keep your kits ready, be vigilant, stay prepared. This might be a long season.
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Kingwood36
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Models will flip back and fourth...nothing is set in stone
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davidiowx
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Recon will help with Fourteen so hopefully tonight the models start to consolidate
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Scott747
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12z UKIE about 100 mi offshore of New Iberia with little movement at the end of the run.

HMON just offshore of Grand Isle as a strong TS.

Eventually moves nne towards Gulfport...
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Cpv17
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The reason you’re seeing the models shift east is because it’s developing faster now. If it would’ve waited to develop further west near the Yucatan or in the Gulf then it more likely would go towards Texas. At least that’s the way I understand it. Of course it’s not set in stone though.
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Scott747
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12z HWRF ends up with a strong TS or minimal hurricane near Houma late Monday night.

As with yesterday and the trend W, today is back E. Euro the last one up for this cycle...
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DoctorMu
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Scott747 wrote: ↑Thu Aug 20, 2020 11:47 am 12z GFS with a shift to central Louisiana.
Well, that means west. lol
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DoctorMu
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Very wide cone...
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don
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Cpv17 wrote: ↑Thu Aug 20, 2020 11:53 am
Scott747 wrote: ↑Thu Aug 20, 2020 11:47 am 12z GFS with a shift to central Louisiana.
12z ICON is into Louisiana too for the most part.
12z ICON actually shifted way west from its previous run and hits southeast Texas around chambers county but the system weakens rapidly before landfall so it doesn't show any windfield or significant moisture fwiw.
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DoctorMu
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Canadian's solution is a depression into northern Mexico.

GEPS Ensemble take TD14 into Freeport as a weak system.
Last edited by DoctorMu on Thu Aug 20, 2020 1:27 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Scott747
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So far 12z Euro is much stronger coming out of the NW Caribbean/YP. Slightly to the N and E of 0z.
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Rip76
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DoctorMu wrote: ↑Thu Aug 20, 2020 1:24 pm Canadian's solution is a depression into northern Mexico.
Haha
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Scott747
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Recon should be descending soon and get at least two fixes before the 4 pm package.
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DoctorMu
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Scott747 wrote: ↑Thu Aug 20, 2020 1:25 pm So far 12z Euro is much stronger coming out of the NW Caribbean/YP. Slightly to the N and E of 0z.
Yep - on a vector towards Lake Charles.
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Scott747
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Euro with a solid 1, heading in the general direction of the upper Texas coast/sw la.
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Scott747
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12z Euro weakens slightly at hr 120 heading for Galveston....
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srainhoutx
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Scott747 wrote: ↑Thu Aug 20, 2020 1:32 pm Euro with a solid 1, heading in the general direction of the upper Texas coast/sw la.
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Stormlover2020
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Euro right in line with nhc
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jasons2k
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Stormlover2020 wrote: ↑Thu Aug 20, 2020 1:38 pm Euro right in line with nhc
I was just gonna post the exact same thing. :lol:

Even though it's still early, when the NHC, Euro, and TVCN are all almost identical, that definitely gets my attention.
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DoctorMu
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DoctorMu wrote: ↑Thu Aug 20, 2020 1:31 pm
Scott747 wrote: ↑Thu Aug 20, 2020 1:25 pm So far 12z Euro is much stronger coming out of the NW Caribbean/YP. Slightly to the N and E of 0z.
Yep - on a vector towards Lake Charles.
Nope - left turn into Freeport. lol
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