Page 12 of 70
Re: 93L Western Caribbean. RECON Cancelled Again.
Posted: Thu Jun 24, 2010 6:42 pm
by Hardcoreweather
RED BABY
Quote:
0
ABNT20 KNHC 242332
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT THU JUN 24 2010
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE BROAD
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED BETWEEN THE EASTERN TIP OF HONDURAS
AND JAMAICA HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED THIS EVENING. SURFACE
PRESSURES HAVE BEEN FALLING IN THE AREA AND THERE HAS BEEN AN
INCREASE IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE GRADUALLY
BECOMING MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND THE SYSTEM COULD BECOME
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BEFORE IT REACHES THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IN A
COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA/BLAKE
Re: 93L Western Caribbean. RECON Cancelled Again.
Posted: Thu Jun 24, 2010 7:41 pm
by srainhoutx
Code: Select all
WHXX01 KWBC 250019
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0019 UTC FRI JUN 25 2010
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL932010) 20100625 0000 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
100625 0000 100625 1200 100626 0000 100626 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 16.0N 81.6W 16.4N 83.2W 17.0N 84.5W 18.2N 86.1W
BAMD 16.0N 81.6W 15.9N 83.2W 15.9N 84.9W 16.0N 86.8W
BAMM 16.0N 81.6W 16.2N 83.2W 16.7N 84.6W 17.3N 86.2W
LBAR 16.0N 81.6W 16.1N 83.6W 16.8N 85.9W 17.6N 88.3W
SHIP 25KTS 29KTS 36KTS 44KTS
DSHP 25KTS 29KTS 36KTS 44KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
100627 0000 100628 0000 100629 0000 100630 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 19.4N 87.5W 22.1N 90.2W 24.4N 92.3W 25.7N 94.4W
BAMD 16.3N 88.7W 16.9N 91.8W 17.2N 94.5W 17.3N 98.1W
BAMM 18.0N 87.8W 19.9N 90.4W 21.4N 92.6W 22.4N 95.1W
LBAR 18.7N 90.5W 21.2N 94.1W 24.1N 96.1W 26.8N 97.8W
SHIP 54KTS 70KTS 75KTS 77KTS
DSHP 54KTS 30KTS 38KTS 40KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 16.0N LONCUR = 81.6W DIRCUR = 265DEG SPDCUR = 7KT
LATM12 = 16.3N LONM12 = 80.3W DIRM12 = 263DEG SPDM12 = 8KT
LATM24 = 16.2N LONM24 = 78.2W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 75NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
Re: 93L Western Caribbean. RECON Scheduled Friday.
Posted: Thu Jun 24, 2010 7:56 pm
by Hardcoreweather
Click image to enlarge.
Re: 93L Western Caribbean. RECON Scheduled Friday.
Posted: Thu Jun 24, 2010 8:00 pm
by srainhoutx
Try our attachment feature for images James.
Re: 93L Western Caribbean. RECON Scheduled Friday.
Posted: Thu Jun 24, 2010 8:44 pm
by redfish1
is it possible this system becomes a hurricane if it threatens the upper texas coast and what are the chances of that?
Re: 93L Western Caribbean. RECON Scheduled Friday.
Posted: Thu Jun 24, 2010 10:46 pm
by Ptarmigan
Code red for 93L. Also, there are multiple tropical waves behind it. I would not be surprised if they too develop.
Re: 93L Western Caribbean. RECON Scheduled Friday.
Posted: Thu Jun 24, 2010 10:53 pm
by Hardcoreweather
It's on like donkey kong
Re: 93L Western Caribbean. RECON Scheduled Friday.
Posted: Thu Jun 24, 2010 11:40 pm
by Scott747
The 0z GFS takes what is now 93l across the YP and into the Gulf eventually heading towards Brownsville as a weak system.
Re: 93L Western Caribbean. RECON Scheduled Friday.
Posted: Thu Jun 24, 2010 11:44 pm
by Andrew
Scott747 wrote:The 0z GFS takes what is now 93l across the YP and into the Gulf eventually heading towards Brownsville as a weak system.
I still don't understand how the GFS expects for a trough to dig that far south. It amazes me.
From this I expect GFDL and some of the other models to switch back over to the west also.
Re: 93L Western Caribbean. RECON Scheduled Friday.
Posted: Fri Jun 25, 2010 12:01 am
by Paul
Andrew, the EURO scenario that has been spitting out for more than a few runs now....Even the NWS AFD stated they were siding with the EURO solution rather than the GFS. IMO, the GFS finally caught on to EURO and NOGAPS. The trof washes out high builds in behind it and wala west driven ala Dolley track......
edit to add that GFS run is far south...mid FL......I am not seeing it..NWS AFD not seeing it either....I would be interested to see if it did make it to mid- FL....
Re: 93L Western Caribbean. RECON Scheduled Friday.
Posted: Fri Jun 25, 2010 12:26 am
by Andrew
Paul wrote:Andrew, the EURO scenario that has been spitting out for more than a few runs now....Even the NWS AFD stated they were siding with the EURO solution rather than the GFS. IMO, the GFS finally caught on to EURO and NOGAPS. The trof washes out high builds in behind it and wala west driven ala Dolley track......
edit to add that GFS run is far south...mid FL......I am not seeing it..NWS AFD not seeing it either....I would be interested to see if it did make it to mid- FL....
Yes that is what I am saying I wonder why the GFS thinks the trof will make it that far south. Very interesting indeed and if it does happen like that it will be something I have never seen before.
Re: 93L Western Caribbean. RECON Scheduled Friday.
Posted: Fri Jun 25, 2010 12:33 am
by Scott747
0z HWRF takes it towards Panama City as a TS.
Re: 93L Western Caribbean. RECON Scheduled Friday.
Posted: Fri Jun 25, 2010 12:35 am
by Scott747
0z GFDL -
Re: 93L Western Caribbean. RECON Scheduled Friday.
Posted: Fri Jun 25, 2010 1:08 am
by Mr. T
0z CMC takes this south of Brownsville
Re: 93L Western Caribbean. RECON Scheduled Friday.
Posted: Fri Jun 25, 2010 5:14 am
by Hardcoreweather
Re: 93L Western Caribbean. RECON Scheduled Friday.
Posted: Fri Jun 25, 2010 6:09 am
by srainhoutx
Latest
Re: 93L Western Caribbean. RECON Scheduled Friday.
Posted: Fri Jun 25, 2010 7:18 am
by wxman57
By the way, wxdata made a thread on how to make a thumbnail image here, but I cannot fidn the interface he used anywhere on this website. I don't see any upload button for images here. I store the images on a web server that I have access to.
Re: 93L Western Caribbean. RECON Scheduled Friday.
Posted: Fri Jun 25, 2010 7:23 am
by Hardcoreweather
Re: 93L Western Caribbean. RECON Scheduled Friday.
Posted: Fri Jun 25, 2010 7:24 am
by srainhoutx
Some image servers may not allow for the use of the image attachment feature. (Photobucket is an example). Go ahead and post your image wxman57. We are looking at other solutions today.
Re: 93L Western Caribbean. RECON Departs 9:30 AM CDT.
Posted: Fri Jun 25, 2010 7:41 am
by srainhoutx
Sunrise in the Caribbean. Will we see TD 1 today?
