Hurricane Alex. 40 Miles NNE of La Pesca. 100 MPH/948MB

[Hardcoreweather]

RED BABY

Quote:
0
ABNT20 KNHC 242332
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT THU JUN 24 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE BROAD
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED BETWEEN THE EASTERN TIP OF HONDURAS
AND JAMAICA HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED THIS EVENING. SURFACE
PRESSURES HAVE BEEN FALLING IN THE AREA AND THERE HAS BEEN AN
INCREASE IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE GRADUALLY
BECOMING MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND THE SYSTEM COULD BECOME
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BEFORE IT REACHES THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IN A
COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/BLAKE

[srainhoutx]

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 250019
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0019 UTC FRI JUN 25 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL932010) 20100625 0000 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        100625  0000   100625  1200   100626  0000   100626  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    16.0N  81.6W   16.4N  83.2W   17.0N  84.5W   18.2N  86.1W
BAMD    16.0N  81.6W   15.9N  83.2W   15.9N  84.9W   16.0N  86.8W
BAMM    16.0N  81.6W   16.2N  83.2W   16.7N  84.6W   17.3N  86.2W
LBAR    16.0N  81.6W   16.1N  83.6W   16.8N  85.9W   17.6N  88.3W
SHIP        25KTS          29KTS          36KTS          44KTS
DSHP        25KTS          29KTS          36KTS          44KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        100627  0000   100628  0000   100629  0000   100630  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    19.4N  87.5W   22.1N  90.2W   24.4N  92.3W   25.7N  94.4W
BAMD    16.3N  88.7W   16.9N  91.8W   17.2N  94.5W   17.3N  98.1W
BAMM    18.0N  87.8W   19.9N  90.4W   21.4N  92.6W   22.4N  95.1W
LBAR    18.7N  90.5W   21.2N  94.1W   24.1N  96.1W   26.8N  97.8W
SHIP        54KTS          70KTS          75KTS          77KTS
DSHP        54KTS          30KTS          38KTS          40KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  16.0N LONCUR =  81.6W DIRCUR = 265DEG SPDCUR =   7KT
LATM12 =  16.3N LONM12 =  80.3W DIRM12 = 263DEG SPDM12 =   8KT
LATM24 =  16.2N LONM24 =  78.2W
WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =   75NM WNDM12 =   25KT
CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD =  180NM SDEPTH =   M
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM

[Hardcoreweather]

Click image to enlarge.

[srainhoutx]

Try our attachment feature for images James.

[redfish1]

is it possible this system becomes a hurricane if it threatens the upper texas coast and what are the chances of that?

[Ptarmigan]

Code red for 93L. Also, there are multiple tropical waves behind it. I would not be surprised if they too develop.

[Hardcoreweather]

It's on like donkey kong

[Scott747]

The 0z GFS takes what is now 93l across the YP and into the Gulf eventually heading towards Brownsville as a weak system.

[Andrew]

The 0z GFS takes what is now 93l across the YP and into the Gulf eventually heading towards Brownsville as a weak system.

I still don't understand how the GFS expects for a trough to dig that far south. It amazes me.

From this I expect GFDL and some of the other models to switch back over to the west also.

[Paul]

Andrew, the EURO scenario that has been spitting out for more than a few runs now....Even the NWS AFD stated they were siding with the EURO solution rather than the GFS. IMO, the GFS finally caught on to EURO and NOGAPS. The trof washes out high builds in behind it and wala west driven ala Dolley track......


edit to add that GFS run is far south...mid FL......I am not seeing it..NWS AFD not seeing it either....I would be interested to see if it did make it to mid- FL....

[Andrew]

Andrew, the EURO scenario that has been spitting out for more than a few runs now....Even the NWS AFD stated they were siding with the EURO solution rather than the GFS. IMO, the GFS finally caught on to EURO and NOGAPS. The trof washes out high builds in behind it and wala west driven ala Dolley track......


edit to add that GFS run is far south...mid FL......I am not seeing it..NWS AFD not seeing it either....I would be interested to see if it did make it to mid- FL....

Yes that is what I am saying I wonder why the GFS thinks the trof will make it that far south. Very interesting indeed and if it does happen like that it will be something I have never seen before.

[Scott747]

0z HWRF takes it towards Panama City as a TS.

[Scott747]

0z GFDL -

[Mr. T]

0z CMC takes this south of Brownsville

[Hardcoreweather]

[srainhoutx]

Latest

[wxman57]

By the way, wxdata made a thread on how to make a thumbnail image here, but I cannot fidn the interface he used anywhere on this website. I don't see any upload button for images here. I store the images on a web server that I have access to.

[Hardcoreweather]

[srainhoutx]

Some image servers may not allow for the use of the image attachment feature. (Photobucket is an example). Go ahead and post your image wxman57. We are looking at other solutions today.

[srainhoutx]

Sunrise in the Caribbean. Will we see TD 1 today?