Re: June 2019: Cooler Temperatures/Isolated Showers
Posted: Tue Jun 11, 2019 8:37 am
Just beautiful out. Nice to be able to breathe.
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88 in Wharton with DP of 66 at 3 PM. Still pretty warm down here. No complaints though.srainhoutx wrote: ↑Tue Jun 11, 2019 2:37 pm 82F with a DP of 59 at 2 PM in NW Harris County. Nice and comfortable for mid June!
tireman4 wrote: ↑Tue Jun 11, 2019 8:50 am Amazing. I love it. Woo Hoo..If only our Summers were like this...
000
FXUS64 KHGX 111206
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
706 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2019
.AVIATION [12Z TAF Issuance]...
VFR for the 12Z TAFS with mainly high clouds and NE winds expected
across the area today. Any SHRA/TSRA are expected to stay to the
SW of the sites. Light winds tonight. Wind shift to the N expected
during the day tomorrow as a cold front moves into the area. Might
see some SHRA/TSRA development with this front. 42
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 425 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2019/...
.SHORT TERM [Today Through Wednesday Afternoon]...
Deeper moisture levels remain in/around the Matagorda Bay area
and off the lower coast where some early morning showers and
thunderstorms have been drifting to the south and southwest.
With daytime heating, expecting to see more shower/thunderstorm
development mainly late this morning through this afternoon in/
around our southwest counties and the Matagorda Bay area. Models
gradually work this moisture field further eastward tonight and
Wednesday. With a weak cold front moving into the area from the
north and northwest and daytime heating, think we may see some
shower/thunderstorm development mainly around and south of the
I-59/69 corridor on Wednesday. Have made little changes to the
temperature forecast which has warmer afternoon highs coming
back to the area on Wednesday. 42
.LONG TERM [Thursday Through Tuesday]...
Thursday through early Saturday should be fairly quiet weather wise,
with dry conditions in place behind another weak frontal boundary
which should eventually push off the coast Thursday morning. Winds
will remain out of the northeast much of the day Thursday before
turning back onshore Friday. Behind this frontal boundary, expect
drier dew points in the upper 50s to 60s. Rather zonal upper level
flow sets up late Thursday afternoon, with mostly clear skies
overhead through at least Friday morning. High temperatures Thursday
and Friday will be in the low to mid 90s. Partly cloudy conditions
return by Friday afternoon as better moisture is pumped into the
region. As a result, expect a warming trend mid week through the
weekend, with high temperatures climbing steadily into the mid 90s
this weekend and apparent temperatures once again in the low 100s.
The chance for showers and thunderstorms increases Saturday, as a
more summer like regime returns. Forecast soundings bring
precipitable water values back to 1.5 to 1.7 inches, with some
instability to work if able to erode a decent cap between 850-700 mb
layer. Convective temperatures Saturday in the upper 80s to low 90s
should be reached, and would expect to see some convection to
develop along the sea breeze by the afternoon hours. Still some
disagreement in the upper level pattern in the extended between the
global guidance in regards to a few upper level disturbances or
shortwaves. The GFS appears more bullish and sends a shortwave
across SE TX both early Saturday evening and another on Saturday
afternoon, while the ECMWF only shows signs of a weak disturbance
Saturday afternoon. Regardless, with better moisture and warm
temperatures in place this weekend, would expect the possibility of
showers and thunderstorms to return by Saturday afternoon and
continue through the beginning of next week, with the sea breeze
providing the best focus for convection.
.MARINE...
With most of the area`s northeast winds still up early this
morning, will continue to carry SCEC flags until mid morning
when speeds are expected to begin a downward trend under a
relaxing gradient. Mainly east to southeast winds are expected
across the waters tonight and Wednesday followed by a shift to
the north and northeast Wednesday night and Thursday as a weak
front moves off the coast. An onshore flow returns to the area
and strengthens beginning Thursday night and Friday as surface
high pressure moves off to the east and pressures begin to fall
off to our northwest. Over the weekend, caution flags will
likely be needed, and advisories will be possible. 42
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 86 66 90 68 90 / 0 0 10 10 0
Houston (IAH) 89 69 92 72 93 / 0 0 20 0 10
Galveston (GLS) 87 78 88 78 89 / 0 10 30 10 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 10 AM CDT this morning
for the following zones: Coastal waters from High Island to
Freeport TX out 20 NM...Galveston Bay...Waters from
Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60
NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport TX from 20 to 60
NM.
&&
$$