Wx Infinity Forums

kayci wrote:

Andrew wrote:

kayci wrote:Hello Andrew, and congrats on your new status.

Please tell me you were laughing because it was a real joke! And tell me you drew those graphics. right?

Hey Kayci, and thank you.

The reason I was laughing is because of how many times the GFS has painted a similar scenario. This far out, you or I would have the same chance of predicting where a storm might hit/form. Watch next run there either won't be a storm or it will hit the east coast. That is how the GFS rolls.

*whew* THANK YOU! Then I shall laugh too!

Yes I just hope the GFS doesn't make a miracle call.

18z

Consistent:

I've been watching the runs over the last three or four days from the GFS that develops the wave behind Julia. A few red taggers are keeping a eye on it as well. Euro is showing mild support and it should get the Star Trek designation in the next day or two with more detailed analysis beginning. Should be enough separation between the wave and Julia that they don't interact.

http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/index.php ... p__5098461

Apparently it was already given the Star Trek number. Should take awhile for any development if it stays within the ITCZ and why the modeling shows it getting much further to the W.

Unlike the preceding PGI41L/Igor & PGI43L/93L, PGI45L is weaker
and forecast to stay farther south. Some models stretch it into
an E-W strip of ITCZ-like vorticity at the end of the forecast.

Scott747 wrote:I've been watching the runs over the last three or four days from the GFS that develops the wave behind Julia. A few red taggers are keeping a eye on it as well. Euro is showing mild support and it should get the Star Trek designation in the next day or two with more detailed analysis beginning. Should be enough separation between the wave and Julia that they don't interact.

http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/index.php ... p__5098461

Yes the GFS has been consistent so I hope I don't end up eating crow. As Wxman showed, the Caribbean in the next couple of days should begin to have rising air. Will be something to watch:

Keep an eye on PGI45L (Star Trek Invest as Scott747 would call it).

Andrew wrote:As Wxman showed, the Caribbean in the next couple of days should begin to have rising air. Will be something to watch

Does rising air make an environment more conducive for a disturbance to develop into a storm? Does it help steer a storm more into the Gulf? In what way does rising air affect a disturbance?

sambucol wrote:

Andrew wrote:As Wxman showed, the Caribbean in the next couple of days should begin to have rising air. Will be something to watch

Does rising air make an environment more conducive for a disturbance to develop into a storm? Does it help steer a storm more into the Gulf? In what way does rising air affect a disturbance?

Quote from wxman:

The good news is that there is still quite a bit of stable, sinking air across the western Caribbean and Gulf. Same sinking air that prevented Gaston from redeveloping. It does look less impressive then it did a few days ago.

So, yes rising air will make for a better environment for development. It shouldn't affect steering but as I said it makes development more likely.

*Wxman if I said something wrong please feel free to correct me*

Very interesting article via chron.com this morning...

http://blogs.chron.com/sciguy/archives/ ... lf_of.html

I forgot to check the long range GFS last night. Does it still paint the system getting into the carribean?

Ed Mahmoud wrote:

Andrew wrote:I forgot to check the long range GFS last night. Does it still paint the system getting into the carribean?

6Z run is different. Your results may vary.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_384l.gif

Thanks Ed, wow GFS is consistent.

That's the 0z run above. 6z run weakens the ridge and lifts the area to the N and towards Fla.

0z Euro along with the GFS develops the wave behind this first fantasy storm.

http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/index.php ... p__5100471

Models continue to suggest a long tracking cyclone across the Atlantic aka PGI45L. The end of September could get interesting.

The GFS has been consistent with showing a strong tropical system entering the GOM around the end of the month and threatening someone across the Western Gulf.

Tonight's dish includes a TX hit and a cold front...

Mr. T wrote:The GFS has been consistent with showing a strong tropical system entering the GOM around the end of the month and threatening someone across the Western Gulf.

Tonight's dish includes a TX hit and a cold front...

It's either the faster solution (GFS, Caribbean Cruiser) or the slower one (Euro, who knows where.)

Are these disturbances that the models are sniffing being tracked by the PREDICT team? There appears to be some confusion on just exactly which may be PGI45L and what is showing up on guidance (GFS and the EC). Time to pay a little more attention I guess.

srainhoutx wrote:Are these disturbances that the models are sniffing being tracked by the PREDICT team? There appears to be some confusion on just exactly which may be PGI45L and what is showing up on guidance (GFS and the EC). Time to pay a little more attention I guess.

Tried to clairfy yesterday as I kept thinking that the GFS seemed rather fast. I'll update at your other board if anyone else is still confused. I'm assuming that if the area out ahead of 45l does begin to show signs of developing that PREDICT will assign it a new number. Now we could have a case where the further western area is the only one that develops and they adjust if the area behind doesn't. Purely speculation with how new this is.

http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/index.php ... p__5101562

The short disco by PREDICT does a good job of highlighting what we're seeing on the runs.

Pouch Name: PGI45L Official Name: Initial Center Point: 8N 8W

Notes:

Both ECMWF and GFS depict two pouches by 120 hours, at which
point they appear to be circulations within, or at least very
close to, the ITCZ. In both models, I have chosen to track the
stronger eastern pouch. So, please note, that the models are
hinting of another weaker western pouch that will cross 40W
before the one that I have tracked.


It appears to me that the GFS develops the western 'pouch' into the stronger system that I keep referring to and the PREDICT forecaster is tracking the potential 'pouch' to the E that the Euro has and what the GFS has shown as a second area on some of the runs.

Once again the GFS suggests a vigorous storm crossing the Atlantic and developing into a Hurricane in the Caribbean. There have been repeated Operational Models runs showing this feature. Our eyes will likely need to turn East in the days ahead.

The 12z GFS would be a nice run should it come true. With the rather strong mid-level trough/ low across Oklahoma digging a bit more south before becoming cut-off would likely give us our first real front as well as keep any tropical system to our east. GFS 2-meter temps show 50 degree temps all the way to the coast with some upper 40's north of I-10 on Wednesday morning (9/29). It should be interesting to see how many times it flip/flops over the next few days.