JUNE 2018: Drying Trend & Summer Heat Returns

[jasons2k]

Here comes another outflow, from the south and southwest. But it's already cooled off, so I don't know...still hoping for something today.

[jasons2k]

This is so frustrating...it smells like rain, but there isn't any. That outflow undercut whatever was trying to form above me. It looked so promising only to tease me yet again.

I hope 91L doesn't end-up being a Lucy. I have this sinking feeling it might.

I think a couple of years ago I mentioned that you're in the donut hole where it rained all around you, but rarely on you. Welcome back to the donut hole.

Well the same darn areas as yesterday west of here are getting dumped on right now while I get nothing.

[BlueJay]

We got a short shower yesterday evening with some hefty winds. Currently we are getting a thunder performance and cloudy skies but no rain yet.

Happy Flag Day to all!

[unome]

loving this

https://www.harriscountyfws.org/

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... anim=html5

[DoctorMu]

Bring on some of that liquid gold. So far, this is titrating and behaving pretty well for a tropical system. Hoping that prognosis becomes a reality. Drive carefully in HOU Sunday.






Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
311 PM CDT Thu Jun 14 2018

.DISCUSSION...
Showers and thunderstorms (one intense with a wind gust of 56 mph
at Hobby Airport at 1:31 PM and another with a very heavy rainfall
rate of 0.48 inches in five minutes to the east of Hobby between
2:05 PM and 2:05 PM) are found across Southeast Texas this afternoon.
Brief strong wind gusts and locally heavy rainfall will continue
to be possible not only this afternoon but possibly on into tomorrow
and Saturday as moisture levels continue to slowly rise and instabilities
continue to slowly increase. We will continue to indicate gradually
increasing rain chances through Saturday followed by much better chances
beginning Saturday night near the coast and Sunday further inland as
moisture associated with the tropical disturbance currently emerging
over the southern Gulf of Mexico and the Bay of Campeche reaches the
Texas coast (NHC continues to carry only a 10% chance of formation
during the next five days). These higher rain chances with locally
heavy rainfall the main severe weather threat will persist through
Monday and maybe even on into Monday night and Tuesday. This extended
high rain chance period coincides with the arrival and persistence
of precipitable water values at or above 2.50 inches and is very
supportive for the threat of locally heavy rainfall. Rainfall totals
from Saturday night through Monday of 2 to 5 inches with locally
higher amounts still seem likely with the higher values near the
coast and the lower values the further inland you go. Although these
storms will be moving at a much faster pace than today`s locally
heavy rain producing activity, any spots where significant training
sets up could easily hit the 2 to 5 inch mark in a short period of
time. It is too early to pinpoint where the heaviest rains will fall,
as this is largely dependent on the track of the tropical disturbance.
We are still looking at gradually decreasing rain chances possibly
beginning Monday night or Tuesday, but with precipitable water values
remaining around 2 inches we might need to extend our locally heavy
rainfall threat beyond Monday. 42
&&

[stormlover]

Srain, the icon, Cmc, Euro, show more of the moisture towards the south more, when do u think the models are going to really latch on ?

[Andrew]

Srain, the icon, Cmc, Euro, show more of the moisture towards the south more, when do u think the models are going to really latch on ?

More organization will result in further south bullseye for rain while less organized system would be more sheared/northern bullseye

[stormlover]

Gotcha, thanks...so Andrew do u think it will be a more organized system ?

[Andrew]

Gotcha, thanks...so Andrew do u think it will be a more organized system ?

Probably not, but some type of surface low might develop during the day on Sunday or Monday focusing things closer to the to the center of the low pressure. Looks like as it stands ECMWF and CMC show that happening while the gfs is weaker and has the bullseye setting up further north. I think that is the more likely situation and more often than not you see moisture streaming well north.

[stormlover]

Thanks

[srainhoutx]

Whatever happens with 91L, it appears to be Texas bound...

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Thu Jun 14 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A broad area of disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity
continues over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico and the Yucatan
Peninsula. This activity is expected to persist over this region
through Friday, and then will move slowly northwestward during the
weekend. Development of this disturbance, if any, should be slow
to occur due to strong upper-level winds.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

Forecaster Cangialosi/Latto

[djmike]

JUst want some good prolonged beneficial rains. No devastation please.

[CrashTestDummy]

JUst want some good prolonged beneficial rains. No devastation please.

Amen!!

We got about .10” of the wet stuff today. Storms all around us most of the day, but finally got some rain around lunchtime.

[skidog44]

I gotta bad feelin.

[davidiowx]

I gotta bad feelin.

Harvey was insane and doesn’t sit well with me (lost everything) or anyone I know. Having said that, I can’t fathom this will be anything close to it. Models with Harvey painted a bad picture for a few days.. even a model watching geek and weather obsessed person I am, couldn’t predict what happened. I wouldn’t believe the rainfall rates I was seeing 2-3 days out.. but I will say this, they verified and some. I’d be hard pressed to say that will ever happen again in my life time. Then again, technology is a beautiful thing.

Why do you have a bad feeling?

[Andrew]

ECMWF and GFS have backed off quite a bit and show highest totals closer to the coast which makes the most sense. One thing we will have to monitor is any mesoscale banding that could occur. That is where you will, of course, see your higher totals and flooding issues. As it stands today I feel good in widespread 3-5 inches with some isolated up to 10 inches. Keep in mind this is forecasted over several days which should alleviate some of the flooding concerns. Will continue to monitor and see how the models trend over the next 24 hours, especially as we get into Hi-res model resolution scaling.

[Andrew]

Looks like WPC is backing off a little too with more of the convection staying further south/more developed low.

[Cromagnum]

Modern day Houston, where not even a tropical depression guarantees you will get much rain.

[srainhoutx]

NHC dropped the disturbance overnight in the Bay of Campeche..

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri Jun 15 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Blake

[srainhoutx]

Looks like there is still a lot of tropical thunderstorm activity nearing the Yucatan from the NW Caribbean this morning.