January 2016: Mardi Gras WX Outlook

[BigThicket]

The morning Updated Teleconnection Indices and the MJO continue to advertise a pattern capable of delivering a colder and stormier pattern to our Region. We will need to monitor the evolution of these indicators to see if a Hemispheric Pattern Change is truly underway.

01082016 AO ao_sprd2.gif

01082016 Tele Indices 4panel.png

01082016 MJO ALL_emean_phase_full.gif

I think all the indices are lined up and I think giving A prelude of sorts...just watched a video that says Jan 10 through Feb. could completely reverse the heat gains in December basically bring the mean back to normal or even below nation wide. Is it hype or for real??? The past cycles in previous years give the indices and models credence. SRAIN just spitball for me here a minute...if the Arctic cold heavily infiltrates our region and with the sub tropical jet delivering waves what could it look like around here...now I know this is hypothetical based on current indices and models.

[srainhoutx]

I think all the indices are lined up and I think giving A prelude of sorts...just watched a video that says Jan 10 through Feb. could completely reverse the heat gains in December basically bring the mean back to normal or even below nation wide. Is it hype or for real??? The past cycles in previous years give the indices and models credence. SRAIN just spitball for me here a minute...if the Arctic cold heavily infiltrates our region and with the sub tropical jet delivering waves what could it look like around here...now I know this is hypothetical based on current indices and models.

Time will tell. Looking back at the analogs we can see trends of what somewhat similar El Nino patterns can deliver, if the Hemispheric conditions are just right. Most of the Professionals and knowledgeable longtime weather enthusiast understand that no two patterns are exactly the same, but we can see what has happened. NW Gulf lows are forming fairly regularly as pressures fall in advance of the active Pacific storm pattern. We have snow on the ground across much of Canada, the Western US/Great Basin into the Northern and Central Plains. I noticed this morning that temperatures across Nunavat and the NW Territories were running anywhere from near -30 to -40C. Those Canadian Prairies are awfully chilly, by my standards. While I still am not onboard with a brutally cold and dry Arctic airmass diving straight down to the Gulf, I certainly can see temperatures just cold enough to create problems. As long as the sub tropical jet remains noisy and Pacific storms undercut the building West Coast Ridge, you have the ingredients for an active weather pattern for the foreseeable future. We will see...

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z ECMWF suggests a strong shot of Arctic air with a 1050mb+ Arctic High moves S out of Canada through Montana into Colorado with a frontal passage a week from today. The Euro keeps the upper trough back to our SW and builds the cold air well South into Texas next Saturday/Sunday. Still way too far out to be taken seriously, but if the trend continues we may have a rather significant storm system to monitor next week.

Hour 192:

01082016 12Z 192 ecmwf_z500a_sd_namer_9.png

01082016 12Z 192 ecmwf_T850a_namer_9.png

Hour 216:

01082016 12Z 216 ecmwf_z500a_sd_namer_10.png

01082016 12Z 216 ecmwf_T850a_namer_10.png

Hour 240:

01082016 12Z 240 ecmwf_z500a_sd_namer_11.png

01082016 12Z 240 ecmwf_T850a_namer_11.png

[snowman65]

The 12Z ECMWF suggests a strong shot of Arctic air with a 1050mb+ Arctic High moves S out of Canada through Montana into Colorado with a frontal passage a week from today. The Euro keeps the upper trough back to our SW and builds the cold air well South into Texas next Saturday/Sunday. Still way too far out to be taken seriously, but if the trend continues we may have a rather significant storm system to monitor next week.

Assuming there Is there a chance the arctic shot could slide more East as it typically does, instead of diving south into our region?

[BigThicket]

With the blocking and teleconnection over western Canada and the source being Arctic in nature once the damm breaks and starts south it's gonna go all the way to Brownsville. If the cold air sets up more central Canada there is a greater chance it shunts to the midwest area and we get back door cold. The next 3-4 days of consistent runs will tell more of the story.

[snowman65]

With the blocking and teleconnection over western Canada and the source being Arctic in nature once the damm breaks and starts south it's gonna go all the way to Brownsville. If the cold air sets up more central Canada there is a greater chance it shunts to the midwest area and we get back door cold. The next 3-4 days of consistent runs will tell more of the story.

I will be in N. Alabama next weekend. Just trying to get a feel for what to pack (regular coat or arctic gear)...lol

[snowman65]

OK, this could be very interesting for me...yikes....I fly back the afternoon of the 18th

[BigThicket]

If the cold air flows into Texas it will move east with the expansion of the easterly migrating trough so you will get your fair share and if it were to go more east you definitely will.

[BigThicket]

OK, this could be very interesting for me...yikes....I fly back the afternoon of the 18th

Wow look at that warming over the Arctic...the cold is gonna lock in over the lower 48

[harpman]

If the cold air flows into Texas it will move east with the expansion of the easterly migrating trough so you will get your fair share and if it were to go more east you definitely will.

Looks like all the northern Gulf coast would! Even those of us in south Louisiana.

[snowman65]

OK, this could be very interesting for me...yikes....I fly back the afternoon of the 18th

Wow look at that warming over the Arctic...the cold is gonna lock in over the lower 48

I would be right smack in the middle of who knows what!

[srainhoutx]

The Afternoon Updated Day 11+ Analogs and Day 8 to 14 Outlook:

01082016 CPC Day 11+ Analogs 814analog_off.gif

01082016 CPC 814temp_new.gif

01082016 CPC 814prcp_new.gif

8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JAN 16 - 22 2016

TODAY'S ENSEMBLE-MEAN DYNAMICAL-MODEL FORECASTS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
PREDICTED 500-HPA CIRCULATION PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA INTO THE WEEK-2
PERIOD. THE PREDICTED CIRCULATION PATTERN IS SIMILAR TO THAT EXPECTED FOR THE
6-10 DAY PERIOD. TROUGHS ARE FORECAST OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE NATION
AND THE NORTH PACIFIC OCEAN, WHILE A RIDGE IS PREDICTED NEAR THE WEST COAST OF
THE CONUS. THE ENSEMBLE SPAGHETTI DIAGRAMS INDICATE LOW TO MODERATE SPREAD
ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST DOMAIN.

THERE ARE INCREASED CHANCES OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR ALASKA AND THE FAR
WESTERN CONUS WITH THE PREDICTED RIDGE. BELOW-NORMAL HEIGHTS ENHANCE THE ODDS
FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS EXCEPT
FOR MAINE WHERE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED.

THE TROUGH EXPECTED OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC OCEAN FAVORS ABOVE MEDIAN
PRECIPITATION FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. THE TROUGH PREDICTED OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS ENHANCES PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR BOTH
THE EAST COAST AND THE GULF COAST. SUBSIDENCE ON THE REAR SIDE OF THE TROUGH
FORECAST OVER THE EAST CONUS TILTS THE ODDS TO BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR
THE GREAT LAKES REGION, THE OHIO VALLEY, AND THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. NEAR TO
BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES ARE ENHANCED FOR ALASKA DUE TO 500-HPA
RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED ABOVE-NORMAL HEIGHTS.

THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF: 20% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE
MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 20% OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
11, 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 20% OF
YESTERDAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 10, AND 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z
CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11


FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS: ABOVE-AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE
TO GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS, AND RELATIVELY GOOD
AGREEMENT AMONG THE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TOOLS.

FORECASTER: LUKE HE

[BigThicket]

The 12z Canada GEM has the country as a whole very cold coast to coast and north to south. Bastardi just tweeted that when the oceans and poles get warm that the continents get cold in winter to even things out...pretty impressive map he showed to back that statement up!

[srainhoutx]

The Storm Prediction Center continues the Enhanced Risk for Severe Storms across portions of SE Texas and SW Louisiana. The 20Z Update has a 30% Hatched Outlook for Hail.

01082016 20Z SPC day1otlk_20160108_2000_prt.gif

01082016 20Z SPC day1probotlk_20160108_2000_hail_prt.gif

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0157 PM CST FRI JAN 08 2016

VALID 082000Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER SERN TX INTO SWRN LA...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER SERN TX INTO SWRN LA...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER ERN TX THROUGH SWRN
ARKANSAS AND MUCH OF LA...

...SUMMARY...
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS...SOME WITH LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO
OR TWO WILL DEVELOP...MOST LIKELY BEGINNING EARLY THIS EVENING INTO
EARLY SATURDAY FROM THE MIDDLE AND UPPER TEXAS GULF COAST INTO
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS.

...ERN TX THROUGH LOWER MS VALLEY...

PRIMARY CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST HAS BEEN TO INCLUDE A SMALL SIG
HAIL AREA OVER SERN TX INTO SWRN LA. A ZONE OF MID-LEVEL ASCENT
APPEARS TO BE ADVANCING EWD THROUGH CNTRL/ERN TX IN ASSOCIATION WITH
A MINOR LEAD IMPULSE AHEAD OF PRIMARY UPPER TROUGH. SPECIAL LAKE
CHARLES 18Z RAOB DATA INDICATE STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND COLD
AIR ALOFT RESULTING IN MODERATE INSTABILITY /1600 J/KG MUCAPE/ ABOVE
A LOW-LEVEL INVERSION. DEEPER ASCENT WILL INCREASE THROUGH ERN TX
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING WITHIN EXIT REGION OF A STRONG UPPER
JET. AS THIS ZONE OF ASCENT INTERACTS WITH THE DESTABILIZING
ATMOSPHERE...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER ERN TX AND
SUBSEQUENTLY MOVE THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL
SUPPORT SOME SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITH LARGE HAIL THE MAIN THREAT
BEFORE STORMS BEGIN TO GROW UPSCALE. SMALL WINDOW WILL EXIST FOR A
TORNADO OR TWO AS THE LLJ STRENGTHENS THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER
SERN TX WHERE THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS SLIGHTLY MORE MOIST AND
UNSTABLE.

..DIAL.. 01/08/2016

[srainhoutx]

Good support from the 12Z Euro Ensembles.

01082016 12Z 192 ecmwf-ens_z500a_sd_namer_9.png

01082016 12Z 192 ecmwf-ens_T850a_namer_9.png

[srainhoutx]

01082016 mcd0005.gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0005
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0254 PM CST FRI JAN 08 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...UPPER TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 082054Z - 082300Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL STORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE NEAR OR
SOUTHEAST OF THE GREATER HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. MORE SUBSTANTIVE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT...WHICH COULD REQUIRE A WATCH...SEEMS MORE LIKELY AFTER
09/00-01Z THAN BEFORE...BUT TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED.

DISCUSSION...ALTHOUGH THE OFFSHORE GULF OF MEXICO BOUNDARY LAYER IS
NOT PARTICULARLY MOIST...SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE TEXAS
COAST IS CONTRIBUTING TO MODEST MOISTENING. INLAND OF COASTAL AREAS
MOISTURE RETURN AND ASSOCIATED DESTABILIZATION APPEAR GENERALLY
ELEVATED ABOVE AT LEAST A SHALLOW RESIDUAL SURFACE BASED STABLE
LAYER. BUT...ALONG COASTAL AREAS BETWEEN VICTORIA AND
GALVESTON...WHERE SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE IN THE MID 60S...THIS IS
PROBABLY BOUNDARY LAYER BASED.

THIS DESTABILIZATION...COUPLED WITH FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED
WITH LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION...HAS CONTRIBUTED TO THE RECENT
INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND THE INITIATION OF
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY NEAR UPPER TEXAS COASTAL AREAS. ASCENT...AND
SUPPRESSION OF AT LEAST WEAK INHIBITION ASSOCIATED WITH ELEVATED
MIXED LAYER AIR EVIDENT IN THE 18Z SOUNDING FROM LAKE CHARLES...MAY
CURRENTLY BE AUGMENTED BY A SUBTLE PASSING MID-LEVEL WAVE. SO THE
LONGEVITY OF ONGOING ACTIVITY REMAINS A BIT UNCLEAR...WITH
CONSIDERABLE MODEL GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE RAPID
REFRESH...SUGGESTING THE MORE APPRECIABLE STORM DEVELOPMENT AFTER
09/00Z...WITH THE CONTINUED APPROACH OF THE PRIMARY UPSTREAM
MID-LEVEL WAVE.

IN THE NEAR TERM...INTENSIFICATION OF ONE OR TWO STORMS ACROSS AND
SOUTHEAST OF THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA DOES NOT APPEAR
COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION. ALTHOUGH THE RAPID REFRESH SUGGESTS
SOME WEAKENING OF 20-30 KT SOUTHERLY 850 MB FLOW IS POSSIBLE THROUGH
EARLY EVENING...DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD STILL REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR
SUPERCELLS. ANY SUSTAINED DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MAY BE
ACCOMPANIED BY THE RISK FOR SEVERE HAIL...AND PERHAPS THE RISK FOR
AN ISOLATED TORNADO.

..KERR/CORFIDI.. 01/08/2016


ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...CRP...EWX...

[srainhoutx]

The Friday Week 3/4 Experimental Climate Prediction Center Outlook has been issued:

01082016 CPC WK34temp.gif

01082016 CPC WK34prcp.gif

Prognostic Discussion for Experimental Week 3-4 Outlook
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD
300PM EST Fri Jan 08 2016

Week 3-4 Forecast Discussion Valid Sat Jan 23 2016-Fri Feb 05 2016

As was the case last week, ongoing and forecast short-term climate variability are making for a challenging Week 3-4 outlook. The background ENSO state continues to heavily influence the pattern of tropical convection and, as a result, influence the circulation from the subtropics into the midlatitudes. Robust MJO activity continues as well, with the enhanced phase propagating across the Pacific Ocean into the Western Hemisphere. Weather and climate forecasts spanning the next 5 to 10 days point to the development of a strongly negative AO pattern, with a block developing over the Davis Strait. The interaction of these phenomena over the next few weeks remains highly uncertain.

Dynamical guidance is in reasonable agreement, with the ECMWF, CFS, and JMA, all depicting 500-hPa circulation patterns that appear largely ENSO driven. There are some important differences, however. The ECMWF and JMA maintain an anomalous Aleutian Low centered near (JMA) or west (ECMWF) of 150W. The CFS maintains an eastward-shifting position ending near 140W by Week-4. The latter is characteristic of mild period across most of the CONUS, while the former is teleconnected to below-normal temperatures across parts of the Southeast.

There are two key forecast uncertainties which mostly pertain to the temperature outlook. First, the evolution of the MJO is important. Should the MJO propagate into phases 2 and 3 in the Wheeler and Hendon paradigm, it could force a warmer solution for the eastern two-thirds of the U.S. by the very end of the period. Also, the persistence of a strong negative AO through the remainder of the month would lead to a colder solution from parts of the Plains to the Southeast. These two points are not completely independent, so statistical guidance utilizing the MJO is valuable.

The outlook relies most strongly on the statistical guidance that captures ENSO, the current state of the MJO, and long term trends. Below-normal temperatures are favored across parts of the Southeast, while above-normal temperatures are favored across much of the northern and western parts of the CONUS. Most of Alaska continues to favor above-normal temperatures as well.

The precipitation outlook is largely driven by the ENSO signal, and remains similar to the previous outlook. There are some minor changes to account for the latest calibrated ECMWF output.

Above-normal temperatures and below-median precipitation is forecast for Hawaii during the period.

[srainhoutx]

Severe Thunderstorm Watch issued for SE Texas & SW Louisiana:

Code: Select all

WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION FOR WATCH 1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
354 PM CST FRI JAN 8 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
1 IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS

IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS THIS WATCH INCLUDES 21 COUNTIES

AUSTIN                BRAZORIA              BRAZOS               
BURLESON              CHAMBERS              COLORADO             
FORT BEND             GALVESTON             GRIMES               
HARRIS                HOUSTON               LIBERTY              
MADISON               MONTGOMERY            POLK                 
SAN JACINTO           TRINITY               WALKER               
WALLER                WASHINGTON            WHARTON              

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...ALVIN...ANAHUAC...ANGLETON...
BELLVILLE...BRENHAM...BROOKSHIRE...BRYAN...CALDWELL...CLEVELAND...
COLDSPRING...COLLEGE STATION...COLUMBUS...CONROE...CORRIGAN...
CROCKETT...DAYTON...EAGLE LAKE...EL CAMPO...FREEPORT...
FRIENDSWOOD...GALVESTON...GROVETON...HEMPSTEAD...HOUSTON...
HUMBLE...HUNTSVILLE...KATY...LAKE JACKSON...LAKE SOMERVILLE...
LEAGUE CITY...LIBERTY...LIVINGSTON...MADISONVILLE...
MISSOURI CITY...MONT BELVIEU...NAVASOTA...ONALASKA...PASADENA...
PEARLAND...PIERCE...PRAIRIE VIEW...RICHMOND...ROSENBERG...SEALY...
SHEPHERD...SUGAR LAND...TEXAS CITY...THE WOODLANDS...TOMBALL...
TRINITY...WEIMAR...WHARTON...WILLIS AND WINNIE.

[Katdaddy]

2016 Severe Thunderstorm Watch #1 is for SE TX!

Screen Shot 2016-01-08 at 3.57.20 PM.png

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
350 PM CST FRI JAN 8 2016

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA
SOUTHEAST TEXAS
COASTAL WATERS

* EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 350 PM UNTIL
1100 PM CST.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL LIKELY WITH ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS
TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
A TORNADO OR TWO POSSIBLE

SUMMARY...SEVERAL AREAS OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH A RISK FOR
LARGE HAIL ...AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO OR TWO...EXPECTED TO AFFECT
SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 110
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES NORTHWEST OF
LUFKIN TEXAS TO 55 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF PORT ARTHUR TEXAS.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

&&

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 24040.

[Katdaddy]

Storms rapidly developing along the Ft Bend and Brazoria County lines SW of Houston moving NE.