April 2015: Pleasant Weather To End April

Fri Apr 17, 2015 2:42 pm

Unverified report from La Salle County 4 miles E of Los Angeles rotating wall cloud

Fri Apr 17, 2015 2:48 pm

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
245 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CORPUS CHRISTI HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN MCMULLEN COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
NORTHEASTERN LA SALLE COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...

* UNTIL 315 PM CDT

* AT 243 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED
NEAR FOWLERTON...OR 17 MILES WEST OF TILDEN...AND MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 30 MPH. SPOTTERS REPORTED A ROTATING WALL CLOUD 4 MILES EAST OF
LOS ANGELES.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ZELLA AND FOWLERTON.

Fri Apr 17, 2015 3:10 pm

updated Thunderstorm Outlook http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/enhtstm/

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/ ... 9301331029

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/ ... 9301199634

Fri Apr 17, 2015 3:19 pm

Looks like my drive to and from Lake Conroe tonight/overnight is gonna be a rough one. My backyard is still flooded from yesterday so any rain today/tonight is sure to be run-off.

Fri Apr 17, 2015 3:23 pm

The meso cyclone near Pleasanton just West of I-37 continues to cycle and show signs of strengthening once again. Merging cell are noted near and just N and W of San Antonio as will as storm rapidly developing ahead of the meso low near Victoria. The area to our West should congeal into a rather large Mesoscale Convective System and move generally E towards SE Texas. From Nesdis:

SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 04/17/15 2015Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-EAST:2000Z JS
.
LOCATION...S CENT TO SE TEXAS...
.
ATTN WFOS...HGX...CRP...EWX...
ATTN RFCS...WGRFC...
.
EVENT...UPDATE TO EARLIER SPENES MESSAGE SENT A FEW HOURS AGO EMPHASIZING
THE OUTLOOK.
.
SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...SINCE EARLIER MESSAGE, HAVE SEEN SOME
CONSOLIDATION OF THE ACTIVITY OVER S CENT TX WITH ENOUGH MEAN FLOW THROUGH
THE COLUMN TO ALLOW FOR FORWARD PROPAGATION FOR MOST OF THE CONVECTION AND
EVEN SOME ACCELERATION WITH THE SOUTHERN MOST BATCH. HAVE ALSO SEEN SOME
TRAINING OVER SW TX WITH THE SW END OF THE LINE AROUND KINNEY/MAVERICK
COUNTIES WHERE SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL INFLOW IS NOW UNIMPEDED BY STRONG
CLUSTER TO ITS SE WHICH HAS MOVED FAR ENOUGH E TO NOT INTERFERE. ALSO,
CONVERGENCE NEAR DRYLINE AND LEFTOVER SLIVER OF UNTAPPED INSTABILITY/CAPE
SEEN IN GOES SOUNDER PRODUCTS IS ALSO AIDING THIS BACK BUILDING/TRAINING.
.
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS, EXPECT THE PRIMARY BATCH OF INTENSE CONVECTION
AND HIGH RAIN RATES OVER S CENT TX TO CONTINUE TO ADVANCE EASTWARD
INTO FAVORABLE UNTAPPED ENVIRONMENT WHERE INSTABILITY MAX AND LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE/CONFLUENT S-SE-E SFC INFLOW/S 850MB LLJ RESIDES. WILL ALSO
NEED TO MONITOR FOR DEVELOPMENT OUT AHEAD OF THIS GROWING COMPLEX ALONG W
END OF OLD STALLED OUT SFC BOUNDARY OVER SE TX. THIS COULD FURTHER ENHANCE
RAINFALL RATES/TOTALS AS MAIN ACTIVITY APPROACHES. THIS IS CERTAINLY A
CONCERN GIVEN THE APPARENT LOW FFG VALUES RESIDING OVER SE TX. FOR LATER
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, MUCH DEPENDS UPON THE LIKELY DEVELOPMENT
OF TRAILING RAIN COOLED/REINFORCED LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY SET DOWN BY THE
CURRENT BATCH OF S CENT TX ACTIVITY. WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING
SUBTROPICAL FLOW BACKING WITH BROAD INFLECTION POINT FORMING OVER BAJA/W
MEXICO AND APPARENT EMBEDDED MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SEEN IN ANIMATION
OF THE CIRA LAYERED 500-300MB TPW PRODUCT NOW MOVING ACROSS S BAJA INTO
W MEXICO, THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR NEW DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING UPSTREAM
OVER MEXICO AND EVENTUALLY MOVING INTO S CENT TX WHICH WOULD MOST LIKELY
TRACK ALONG ANY BOUNDARY SET DOWN BY THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING'S CONVECTION.
HAVE OUTLINED THREAT AREAS IN ATTACHED GRAPHIC WHICH SHOULD APPEAR ON
THE INTERNET ADDRESS BELOW IN APPROX 10 MINUTES. PLEASE SEE WPC QPF AND
EXCESSIVE DISCUSSION FOR LATER QPF INFO.

Fri Apr 17, 2015 3:26 pm

04172015 mcd0339.gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0339
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0322 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...MID/UPPER TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 172022Z - 172215Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR SEVERE HAIL AND DAMAGING SURFACE WIND GUSTS
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITH AN EVOLVING CONVECTIVE SYSTEM
OVERSPREADING THE MID/UPPER TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN THROUGH 22-00Z.

DISCUSSION...A STILL RELATIVELY SMALL...BUT EVOLVING MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM IS MAINTAINING INTENSITY...AND A 25-30 KT EAST
NORTHEAST MOTION AS IT PROGRESS SOUTH AND EAST OF SAN ANTONIO.
FURTHER INTENSIFICATION REMAINS PROBABLE IN THE PEAK BOUNDARY LAYER
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE MID/UPPER TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN. AS THE
CONVECTIVELY GENERATED COLD POOL CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...AN
INCREASE IN FORWARD ACCELERATION SEEMS LIKELY TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY A
GENERAL INCREASE IN DAMAGING SURFACE GUSTS...WHICH COULD IMPACT THE
HOUSTON METROPOLITAN BY AREA AS EARLY AS 00Z.

..KERR/HART.. 04/17/2015

ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...EWX...

Fri Apr 17, 2015 3:30 pm

Severe Thunder Storm Watch issued for portions of SE Texas until 10:00 PM CDT

04172015 ww0068_overview_big.gif

Code: Select all

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
     SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 68
     NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
     330 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015
     
     SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 68 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT
     FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS
     
     TXC007-015-021-039-041-051-055-057-071-089-123-149-157-167-175-
     177-185-201-239-285-287-321-339-391-409-469-473-477-481-
     180300-
     /O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0068.150417T2030Z-150418T0300Z/
     
     TX 
     .    TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
     
     ARANSAS              AUSTIN              BASTROP             
     BRAZORIA             BRAZOS              BURLESON            
     CALDWELL             CALHOUN             CHAMBERS            
     COLORADO             DEWITT              FAYETTE             
     FORT BEND            GALVESTON           GOLIAD              
     GONZALES             GRIMES              HARRIS              
     JACKSON              LAVACA              LEE                 
     MATAGORDA            MONTGOMERY          REFUGIO             
     SAN PATRICIO         VICTORIA            WALLER              
     WASHINGTON           WHARTON

Fri Apr 17, 2015 3:45 pm

Update from Jeff:

SPC has issued a Severe Thunderstorm Watch for a large portion of SE TX until 1000pm.

Developing bow echo south of San Antonio is moving E at 25-35kts into a largely unstable and uncapped air mass. Storm cluster is showing good storm organization with comma rotation in the radar pattern suggesting a meso low is developing and decent cold pool which will drive this system E to ESE into SE TX this evening.

Main threat will be straight line wind damage of 60-70mph along the leading edge of this bow and this wind damage could be fairly widespread. Will also be monitoring cells developing near Matagorda Bay for severe modes as they progress NNE ahead of the main line.

Forward timing places the line into SE TX around 500-600pm and into the Houston metro area between 700-900pm.

Would not rule out development ahead of this main line as is already underway over Colorado County, TX

Radar out of CRP is supporting intense rainfall rates of 2-3 inches per hour with this activity and FFG over Harris, Liberty, Chambers Counties is very low and will likely be exceeded resulting in significant run-off and flash flooding.

Severe Thunderstorm Watch # 68 with Radar Overlay:

04172015 Jeff ww0068_radar_big.gif

Fri Apr 17, 2015 3:59 pm

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SPECIAL MARINE WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
353 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* SPECIAL MARINE WARNING FOR...
MATAGORDA BAY...

* UNTIL 500 PM CDT

* AT 353 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM...
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WINDS 34 KNOTS OR GREATER AND LARGE HAIL...
LOCATED NEAR PORT O'CONNOR...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 KNOTS.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
COX BAY...PORT O CONNOR...EAST MATAGORDA BAY...PALACIOS BAY...
MATAGORDA BAY...PORT O'CONNOR...CHOCOLATE BAY...CARANCAHUA BAY...
LAVACA BAY...PORT LAVACA...MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL...TURTLE BAY...
KELLER BAY AND PORT LAVACA.

Fri Apr 17, 2015 4:47 pm

04172015 mcd0046.gif

MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0046
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
538 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL TO SERN TEXAS

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 172138Z - 180238Z

SUMMARY...THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT IS INCREASING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE CNTRL AND ERN TEXAS COASTAL PRAIRIES WITH 3 HOURLY RAINFALL
RATES OF 3-4 INCHES EXPECTED THROUGH 02Z.

DISCUSSION...AT 21Z...A FORWARD PROPAGATING BOWING SEGMENT OF
CONVECTION OVER WILSON AND KARNES COUNTIES WAS OBSERVED TO BE
MOVING ENE AT AROUND 30 TO 35 KTS. IN ADDITION...RADAR/SATELLITE
SHOWED A THIN LINE OF SHOWERS ALONG A NWD DRIFTING CONVERGENCE
AXIS EXTENDING INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO TO JUST SOUTH OF MATAGORDA
BAY WITH ADDITIONAL...LESS ORGANIZED...CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHWEST
OF HOUSTON AND NORTH OF SAN ANTONIO. SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY IS
ESTIMATED TO BE ANYWHERE BETWEEN 1000-2500 J/KG ACROSS SOUTHEAST
TEXAS AND PRECIPITABLE WATER SOUTH OF A STATIONARY FRONT...LOCATED
ABOUT 100 MILES INLAND OF THE TEXAS COAST...WAS OBSERVED TO BE 1.8
INCHES PER SPECIAL 18Z SOUNDING AT CRP WHICH IS 2 TO 3 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE NORM.

SRLY LOW LEVEL FLOW INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT
DEEPER MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH INTO THE THREAT AREA INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. IT IS EXPECTED...PER A CONSENSUS OF RECENT HI-RES
MODEL GUIDANCE...THAT THE BOWING SEGMENT WILL PRECEDE SCATTERED
SHOWERS DEVELOPING WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR...JUST AHEAD OF THE
BOWING SEGMENT...WITH THE OVERALL CLUSTER OF CONVECTION TO SPREAD
EASTWARD THROUGH 02Z...POSSIBLY IMPACTING PORTIONS OF
CHAMBERS...JEFFERSON...LIBERTY COUNTIES THAT RECEIVED 4-7 INCHES
OF RAIN OVER THE PAST 24-30 HOURS.

OTTO

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...HGX...LCH...

Fri Apr 17, 2015 4:48 pm

funktop, I usually use this for tropical systems !

loop it here http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/sc/mflash-ft.html

Fri Apr 17, 2015 4:56 pm

Radar estimates rainfall rates of 4-5 inches per hour ESE of San Antonio moving generally ENE toward Metro Houston.

Fri Apr 17, 2015 5:19 pm

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
518 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

JACKSON TX-
518 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 530 PM CDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN JACKSON COUNTY...

AT 517 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
SPEAKS... OR 15 MILES NORTHWEST OF EDNA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40
MPH. THE STORM IS ALSO PRODUCING FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
AND VERY HEAVY RAIN.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CORDELE AND MORALES.

Fri Apr 17, 2015 5:36 pm

geez, look at that lightning

http://www.lightningmaps.org/realtime

http://www.blitzortung.org/Webpages/ind ... &page_0=31

Fri Apr 17, 2015 5:40 pm

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
539 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

COLORADO TX-WHARTON TX-
539 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
SOUTHWESTERN WHARTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...

* UNTIL 845 PM CDT

* AT 538 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED HEAVY RAIN DUE TO
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL CAUSE MINOR FLOODING IN THE ADVISORY
AREA. UP TO 2.5 INCHES OF RAIN HAVE FALLEN.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
EL CAMPO...PIERCE AND LOUISE.

Fri Apr 17, 2015 5:44 pm

04172015 mcd0342.gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0342
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0541 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...S TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 67...68...

VALID 172241Z - 180015Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
67...68...CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...SEVERE RISK SHOULD PERSIST BEYOND 00Z EXPIRATION OF WW 67
AND MAY DEVELOP INTO DEEP S TX THROUGH LATE EVENING. A NEW WW
ISSUANCE IS LIKELY.

DISCUSSION...PRIMARY NEAR-TERM SEVERE RISK WILL EXIST IN THE FORM OF
DAMAGING WINDS WITH A LEAD CLUSTER CROSSING FROM S-CNTRL INTO SE TX
AT AROUND 45-KT FORWARD MOTION. ADDITIONAL UPSTREAM CELLS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO REGENERATE ALONG/N OF THE CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
THAT STRETCHED FROM SOUTHERN BEE TO NORTHERN WEBB COUNTY AS OF
2230Z...AIDED BY LARGE-SCALE ASCENT VIA A SHORTWAVE IMPULSE
APPROACHING FROM NRN CHIHUAHUA. DESPITE THE 21Z HRRR PROLIFIC
OVER-FORECAST OF CONVECTION OVER CHIHUAHUA AT PRESENT...2215Z
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DOES INDICATE A ROBUST UPDRAFT AROUND 55
WSW LRD.

MODIFIED 18Z CRP/BRO RAOBS SUGGEST MLCAPE OF 2500-3500 J/KG IS
PROBABLE ACROSS DEEP S TX WITH MINIMAL MLCIN. WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR
HAVING INCREASED TO AROUND 60-KT PER CRP/DFX VWP DATA...SUPERCELLS
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE WINDS SHOULD BE A THREAT WELL INTO
THE EVENING. ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS MODEST AND PROGGED TO
REMAIN SO...ENHANCED 0-1 KM SRH ALONG THE N SIDE OF THE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY COULD SUPPORT A TORNADO OR TWO AS WELL WITH ANY
WELL-DEVELOPED SUPERCELL.

..GRAMS/CORFIDI.. 04/17/2015

ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...EWX...BRO...

Fri Apr 17, 2015 5:45 pm

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
545 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL COLORADO COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
SOUTHWESTERN WHARTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
JACKSON COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
WESTERN MATAGORDA COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...

* UNTIL 630 PM CDT

* AT 544 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM NEAR HALLETTSVILLE TO NEAR SPEAKS TO NEAR WOOD HI...
AND MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
EL CAMPO...EDNA...COLUMBUS...GANADO...LA WARD...PIERCE...LOLITA...
ALTAIR...CORDELE...LAKE TEXANA DAM...MORALES...SHERIDAN...LOUISE...
ROCK ISLAND...GARWOOD...VANDERBILT AND NADA.

Fri Apr 17, 2015 6:06 pm

wouldn't want to be driving on I-10 west right now

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/in ... X-N0Q-1-12

Fri Apr 17, 2015 6:08 pm

Trees reported down in Morales. Bow echo increasing in strength as it approaches Wharton County.

Fri Apr 17, 2015 6:11 pm

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
606 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

GUADALUPE TX-LLANO TX-COMAL TX-HAYS TX-BURNET TX-CALDWELL TX-
TRAVIS TX-BASTROP TX-BLANCO TX-WILLIAMSON TX-
606 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
NORTHEASTERN GUADALUPE COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
SOUTHEASTERN LLANO COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
NORTHEASTERN COMAL COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
HAYS COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
CENTRAL BURNET COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
CALDWELL COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
TRAVIS COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
BASTROP COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
BLANCO COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
SOUTHWESTERN WILLIAMSON COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...

* UNTIL 900 PM CDT

* AT 604 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED SPOTTY HEAVY RAIN DUE TO
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL CAUSE MINOR FLOODING IN THE
ADVISORY AREA. UP TO ONE INCH OF RAIN HAS ALREADY FALLEN.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
AUSTIN...ROUND ROCK...CEDAR PARK...GEORGETOWN...PFLUGERVILLE...SAN
MARCOS...LOCKHART...BASTROP...KINGSLAND...MARBLE FALLS...BURNET...
LULING...SMITHVILLE...WIMBERLEY...DRIPPING SPRINGS...BLANCO...
BERTRAM...ROUND MOUNTAIN...TANGLEWOOD FOREST AND ANDERSON MILL.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 3 INCHES IS EXPECTED OVER THE AREA. THIS
ADDITIONAL RAIN WILL MAKE MINOR FLOODING.

April 2015: Pleasant Weather To End April

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