Wx Infinity Forums

This cold air is coming from the backdoor so lets see what happens. I saw so many different forecast and believe its a wait and see kinda of weather.

Dewpoint at Wharton has increased from 21 to 30 (+9) between 500pm and 835pm. Surface temp. has fallen from 40-38 (-2) in the same time period. As the models suggested...Td rises and T does not fall...saturating through raising the dewpoint not cooling the air temp (warm air advection) not wet bulb cooling.

Onset of next surge of cold air will reset the process with CAA allowing wet bulb cooling Saturday AM...but looks like precip is very light and to our west...things just really are not lining up for anything more than a few ice pellets here and there and maybe some freezing rain for a small window CLL to UTS. Note the upstream dewpoint at Amarillo behind the next front is 25 compared to 17 at Dallas in the retreating previous frontal air mass.

tx_kingwood32 wrote:
Ha! And they said houston wouldn't see any frozen precip! 3 ice pellets baby!

Forecast models get it wrong.

jeff wrote:Note the upstream dewpoint at Amarillo behind the next front is 25 compared to 17 at Dallas in the retreating previous frontal air mass.

Interesting - this is the first time I recall seeing this with a reinforcing plunge of arctic air.

Anyway, it's 37 with drizzle here. The sidewalk is damp. It was all liquid during the 30-seconds or so I spent inspecting my dimly lit windshield for any ice pellets.

Lol I just did that exact same thing! Quickly decided it was time for a warm bed for the night! Not exciting.

Cold damp dreary weather looks to continue into early next week. The overnight guidance has trended 'warmer', so other than the Hill Country and the far Northern areas of SE Texas into SW Louisiana the threat of freezing rain has diminished. The next front is moving a bit slower S, so it may take until late this afternoon to reach the Coast. The pesky upper low to our West finally nears Texas Saturday night as a Coastal trough gets going Saturday afternoon. The heaviest rain looks to be along the Coast and offshore. We may dry out briefly Sunday afternoon before the last in a series of Pacific shortwaves and another cold front arrives late Monday into Tuesday. Fingers crossed...there may even finally be some sunshine on Wednesday as the upper pattern changes and the West Coast Ridge moves inland and settles across the Plains bringing warmer weather.

On a personal note, I depart early Monday for a sorely needed vacation to Northern New Mexico and Taos Ski Valley for a full week of rest and relaxation in the Mountains where the cold and snow belongs...

Morning briefing from Jeff:

Cold and wet weather for the next several days.

Threat for freezing rain and ice is limited across the area.

Secondary arctic frontal boundary is approaching the region from the north and will move through over the next several hours. Overnight warm air advection (southerly winds) did the trick by warming dewpoints into the mid 30’s (+10-20 degrees warmer than 24 hours ago) while surface temperatures only fell 2-3 degrees. This effectively negated any freezing temperatures over the area preventing any freezing rain. Light rain and drizzle will continue through mid to late morning before onset of next surge of cold air which will advect in another very dry low level air mass (dewpoints back into the lower 20’s by tonight).

Upper level storm system near Baja will begin to slowly move eastward into TX Saturday with large scale lift increasing. Surface dewpoints Saturday morning (midnight-1000am) will be low across the region and this time cold air advection will be ongoing at the surface instead of warm air advection. If the atmosphere were to precipitate during this period then the opposite effect of this morning would happen with the air temperature cooling toward the dewpoint (evaporative cooling to the wet bulb temperature). This only happens if it is precipitating long and hard enough to allow this process to take place. Models show a strong dry layer in the lowest 100mb of the air mass through the critical period of Saturday morning and this layer should effectively evaporate any falling precipitation and prevent it from reaching the ground. Overall the onset of light rain is out of phase with the potential for maximum wet bulb cooling Saturday morning. Rainfall will onset with the arrival of strong lift after about 1000am and more likely after noon when the surface temperature will be warming into the mid and upper 30’s and stronger warm air advection will be in progress above the surface…end result is a very cold rain.

With all that said…will maintain a very slight threat for freezing rain west of a line from Edna to Columbus to College Station to Crockett just in case the rainfall does onset a few hours earlier and the evaporative cooling reduces the air temperature to near freezing for a few hours. If this were to happen surface temperature would only fall to 31-32 allowing some very minor ice accumulation on elevated surfaces. This chance is remote but not non-zero.

Will be done with any threats of winter precipitation Saturday afternoon in favor of just cold rain and cold temperatures for the next several days. Overall pattern changes little with several upper air disturbances expected to cross the region producing periods of rainfall. Strongest system will be Saturday night and Sunday with widespread rain expected. Temperatures will remain cold with clouds and rainfall keeping any warming trend muted. Another front arrives Monday and the entire process starts again with the next upper air disturbance moving across on Tuesday and Wednesday with more rainfall. Temperatures will remain in the 40’s and 50’s for highs through next Wednesday with 30’s and 40’s for lows with cloudy skies and periods of rain.

Board got awful quiet once folks realized this would be a cold, miserable, and rainy event.

Not for me!! This is gonna be awesome. I'll let you guys know how things go. Am in Bandera to run a trail race, I'll be right out in it all day!!

the rain has pssed. looks like snow/sleet/ice line is aroundvlufkin. i went outside and enjoyed a winters walk with my dog! looks like it will be a cold wet weeknend!!! loving this weather

ticka1 wrote:the rain has pssed. looks like snow/sleet/ice line is aroundvlufkin. i went outside and enjoyed a winters walk with my dog! looks like it will be a cold wet weeknend!!! loving this weather

Looking at all the reporting stations in Texas, and specifically Lufkin, not one reports snow, sleet, or ice?
Glad you're enjoying this miserable weather. Personally, I'm looking forward to Spring.

Agree (on the miserable cold). I'd take 100 degrees any day over today's weather. I can't remember the last time I rode my bike...

Okay, Jasper appears to be reporting snow, and looking at that radar it does indeed look like snow may be in the Lufkin area.

There are reports coming in now of freezing rain and some sleet back across the Hill Country and further E to around Fairfield and SE near Crockett.

Enjoy NM, Srain.

Ounce wrote:Enjoy NM, Srain.

Thank you Ounce! I just need to beat what looks to be a potential Major Winter Storm in New Mexico beginning sometime Monday afternoon continuing into Wednesday. Also, it looks like NWS San Antonio/Austin may issue a Winter Weather Advisory later this afternoon.

That pesky upper low is not weakening as it moves E and is traveling a bit quicker than the guidance had originally suggested and not shearing out. Lightning strikes reported with that Upper low over Northern Mexico at this time.

Srain, earlier today you mentioned something about a potential storm next week?

harpman wrote:Srain, earlier today you mentioned something about a potential storm next week?

A weaker shortwave is nearing the California Coast this afternoon and will weaken as it crosses the Southern Rockies tomorrow into Saturday. There is another upper disturbance organizing in Western Canada and a secondary storm system in the Pacific about 500 miles W of California. Those two systems may combine near the Four Corners Region on Monday and develop a Winter Storm over New Mexico Monday night into Tuesday. Another cold front is expected in the wake of that storm and should push through Texas Tuesday night bringing additional rain chances before the Upper Ridge builds in over the Southern Plains/Southern Rockies and ends this messy weather.

Thank you.