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Re: January 2013: Tracking The Texas Winter Storm
Posted: Fri Jan 04, 2013 10:24 am
by harpman
srainhoutx wrote:harpman wrote:Thanks again for your prompt response. I know this is primarily a Texas forum and I'm in New Orleans, but I do get a lot of information here!
We have become a much more Regional Forum that covers New Mexico/Mexico/Oklahoma/Arkansas and Louisiana, harpman over the past several years. That was always the dream that those that came before such as Dan as well as the fine folks at KHOU had envisioned for our Community. Our members and those that read, post and participate stretch
well beyond Texas. In fact we have members and followers from Coast to Coast, from Canada to the Caribbean.
yes, I know several folks here locally who follow this forum. Thanks again!
Re: January 2013: Tracking The Texas Winter Storm
Posted: Fri Jan 04, 2013 10:35 am
by Portastorm
Ed Mahmoud wrote:Winter-wise-
SXUS74 KEWX 041331
RERAUS
RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO, TX
727 AM CST FRI JAN 04 2013
...RECORD DAILY MAXIMUM SNOWFALL SET AT AUSTIN BERGSTROM...
A RECORD SNOWFALL OF A TRACE WAS REPORTED AT THE
AUSTIN BERGSTROM AIRPORT THIS MORNING. THIS TIES
THE OLD RECORD OF TRACE SET IN 1972.
$$
That is curious ... I didn't hear or see any snow reports from KAUS. Perhaps the "trace" relates to the rain/sleet mix which occurred throughout much of the Austin metro area in the last 10 hours or so.
Re: January 2013: Tracking The Texas Winter Storm
Posted: Fri Jan 04, 2013 11:24 am
by srainhoutx
Here are some of the preliminary storm totals across Southern New Mexico and Texas. NWS El Paso as not updated their information as well as San Angelo. It does appear the Southern New Mexico into El Paso received 4 inch amount with isolated higher totals of snow. San Angelo suggests 1-4 inches across their Western Region in the Permian Basin and along and S of I-20. Here is Midland and San Antonio/Austin updated graphics. Sleet is still currently falling in San Antonio at Lackland AFB.
Re: January 2013: Tracking The Texas Winter Storm
Posted: Fri Jan 04, 2013 11:52 am
by srainhoutx
NWS San Angelo Updated storm totals...
Code: Select all
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1129 AM CST FRI JAN 04 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0545 AM SNOW DYESS AFB 32.42N 99.86W
01/04/2013 E1.0 INCH TAYLOR TX PUBLIC
0600 AM SNOW ABILENE 32.45N 99.73W
01/04/2013 M1.0 INCH TAYLOR TX CO-OP OBSERVER
0600 AM SNOW 5 SW SAN ANGELO 31.38N 100.49W
01/04/2013 M2.8 INCH TOM GREEN TX NWS OFFICE
0645 AM SNOW BANGS 31.71N 99.13W
01/04/2013 E3.0 INCH BROWN TX PUBLIC
0645 AM SNOW MAY 31.98N 98.92W
01/04/2013 M2.8 INCH BROWN TX PUBLIC
0700 AM SNOW CARLSBAD 31.60N 100.63W
01/04/2013 M5.1 INCH TOM GREEN TX PUBLIC
COCORAHS
0700 AM SNOW KNICKERBOCKER 31.27N 100.62W
01/04/2013 M2.3 INCH TOM GREEN TX PUBLIC
COCORAHS
0700 AM SNOW 4 W SAN ANGELO 31.45N 100.52W
01/04/2013 M4.5 INCH TOM GREEN TX NWS EMPLOYEE
0700 AM SNOW SANTA ANNA 31.74N 99.32W
01/04/2013 M1.5 INCH COLEMAN TX CO-OP OBSERVER
0700 AM SNOW ROSCOE 32.45N 100.54W
01/04/2013 M1.3 INCH NOLAN TX CO-OP OBSERVER
0700 AM SNOW 5 NNE BRONTE 31.96N 100.27W
01/04/2013 M5.1 INCH COKE TX PUBLIC
COCORAHS
0700 AM SNOW 6 NNE SILVER VALLEY 32.04N 99.52W
01/04/2013 M2.5 INCH COLEMAN TX PUBLIC
COCORAHS REPORT FROM LAKE COLEMAN AREA
0700 AM SNOW STERLING CITY 31.84N 100.98W
01/04/2013 M3.7 INCH STERLING TX PUBLIC
COCORAHS
0700 AM SNOW SONORA 30.57N 100.64W
01/04/2013 M1.0 INCH SUTTON TX CO-OP OBSERVER
0700 AM SNOW ROBERT LEE 31.89N 100.48W
01/04/2013 M3.0 INCH COKE TX CO-OP OBSERVER
0700 AM SNOW 12 NNW MERTZON 31.42N 100.89W
01/04/2013 M4.9 INCH IRION TX CO-OP OBSERVER
0718 AM SNOW GRAPE CREEK 31.58N 100.55W
01/04/2013 M3.8 INCH TOM GREEN TX PUBLIC
0724 AM SNOW 5 W SAN ANGELO 31.45N 100.54W
01/04/2013 E4.0 INCH TOM GREEN TX NWS EMPLOYEE
0724 AM SNOW 12 S BAIRD 32.22N 99.40W
01/04/2013 E3.0 INCH CALLAHAN TX CO-OP OBSERVER
0725 AM SNOW MERTZON 31.26N 100.82W
01/04/2013 E4.5 INCH IRION TX LAW ENFORCEMENT
0728 AM SNOW PAINT ROCK 31.51N 99.93W
01/04/2013 E3.0 INCH CONCHO TX CO-OP OBSERVER
0729 AM SNOW 5 SW SAN ANGELO 31.38N 100.49W
01/04/2013 M2.8 INCH TOM GREEN TX NWS OFFICE
0729 AM SNOW BROWNWOOD 31.71N 98.99W
01/04/2013 E2.0 INCH BROWN TX CO-OP OBSERVER
0730 AM SNOW 11 NE SAN ANGELO 31.56N 100.32W
01/04/2013 M3.2 INCH TOM GREEN TX CO-OP OBSERVER
0730 AM SNOW 4 N WATER VALLEY 31.73N 100.72W
01/04/2013 M6.0 INCH COKE TX CO-OP OBSERVER
0732 AM SNOW 3 SSW CHRISTOVAL 31.15N 100.52W
01/04/2013 M1.5 INCH TOM GREEN TX NWS EMPLOYEE
0732 AM SNOW 3 NE SAN ANGELO 31.48N 100.42W
01/04/2013 E3.0 INCH TOM GREEN TX PUBLIC
PAULANN AREA
0800 AM SNOW 2 SW WATER VALLEY 31.65N 100.74W
01/04/2013 M3.0 INCH TOM GREEN TX CO-OP OBSERVER
0800 AM SNOW 2 WSW SAN ANGELO 31.43N 100.48W
01/04/2013 M3.0 INCH TOM GREEN TX NWS EMPLOYEE
0800 AM SNOW 22 SSW OZONA 30.43N 101.38W
01/04/2013 M2.5 INCH CROCKETT TX PUBLIC
0800 AM SNOW 18 S OZONA 30.45N 101.16W
01/04/2013 M2.5 INCH CROCKETT TX PUBLIC
COCORAHS
0800 AM SNOW 8 N BRADY 31.25N 99.33W
01/04/2013 E1.5 INCH MCCULLOCH TX PUBLIC
0800 AM SNOW 2 SSW OZONA 30.68N 101.22W
01/04/2013 M2.0 INCH CROCKETT TX CO-OP OBSERVER
0806 AM SNOW BALLINGER 31.74N 99.96W
01/04/2013 M1.0 INCH RUNNELS TX CO-OP OBSERVER
0811 AM SNOW 3 SSW SAN ANGELO 31.41N 100.47W
01/04/2013 M4.0 INCH TOM GREEN TX NWS EMPLOYEE
0817 AM SNOW FORT MCKAVETT 30.83N 100.11W
01/04/2013 M1.0 INCH MENARD TX CO-OP OBSERVER
0830 AM SNOW 8 WSW BUFFALO GAP 32.24N 99.96W
01/04/2013 E2.0 INCH TAYLOR TX CO-OP OBSERVER
0830 AM SNOW SWEETWATER 32.47N 100.41W
01/04/2013 E1.0 INCH NOLAN TX LAW ENFORCEMENT
0830 AM SNOW ELDORADO 30.86N 100.60W
01/04/2013 E1.5 INCH SCHLEICHER TX LAW ENFORCEMENT
1 TO 2 INCHES REPORTED IN ELDORADO.
0832 AM SNOW MENARD 30.92N 99.79W
01/04/2013 E3.0 INCH MENARD TX LAW ENFORCEMENT
0840 AM SNOW HARRIET 31.55N 100.32W
01/04/2013 E4.0 INCH TOM GREEN TX PUBLIC
0900 AM SNOW SONORA 30.57N 100.64W
01/04/2013 M1.0 INCH SUTTON TX CO-OP OBSERVER
0900 AM SNOW MERTZON 31.26N 100.82W
01/04/2013 M4.0 INCH IRION TX CO-OP OBSERVER
0900 AM SNOW VOCA 31.01N 99.18W
01/04/2013 E1.0 INCH MCCULLOCH TX PUBLIC
0900 AM SNOW FREDONIA 30.93N 99.11W
01/04/2013 E1.0 INCH MASON TX POST OFFICE
0903 AM SNOW DOOLE 31.40N 99.60W
01/04/2013 E1.0 INCH CONCHO TX PUBLIC
0904 AM SNOW BLACKWELL 32.09N 100.32W
01/04/2013 E3.0 INCH NOLAN TX POST OFFICE
0911 AM SNOW RICHLAND SPRINGS 31.27N 98.94W
01/04/2013 E1.0 INCH SAN SABA TX POST OFFICE
ABOUT 1 INCH OF SNOW ON ELEVATED SURFACES
0935 AM SNOW 20 E SONORA 30.57N 100.31W
01/04/2013 E1.0 INCH SUTTON TX PUBLIC
ALONG INTERSTATE 10
0953 AM SNOW BARNHART 31.13N 101.17W
01/04/2013 M3.0 INCH IRION TX TRAINED SPOTTER
0957 AM SNOW COLEMAN 31.83N 99.43W
01/04/2013 E3.5 INCH COLEMAN TX DEPT OF HIGHWAYS
3 TO 4 INCHES IN COLEMAN
1007 AM SNOW 9 SW VIEW 32.25N 99.99W
01/04/2013 E2.5 INCH TAYLOR TX PUBLIC
AT CORONADOS CAMP
Re: January 2013: Tracking The Texas Winter Storm
Posted: Fri Jan 04, 2013 11:55 am
by srainhoutx
ABQ Updated storm totals:
Code: Select all
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1037 AM MST FRI JAN 04 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0400 PM SNOW 9 NW ARABELA 33.68N 105.27W
01/03/2013 E2.5 INCH LINCOLN NM TRAINED SPOTTER
0400 PM SNOW 1 S CAPITAN 33.53N 105.59W
01/03/2013 M1.0 INCH LINCOLN NM CO-OP OBSERVER
0500 PM SNOW 11 SE CEDARVALE 34.26N 105.56W
01/03/2013 M3.5 INCH LINCOLN NM TRAINED SPOTTER
0537 AM SNOW 6 WSW BONITO LAKE 33.40N 105.80W
01/04/2013 E1.0 INCH LINCOLN NM PUBLIC
SKI APACHE.
0600 AM SNOW 9 SW CORONA 34.15N 105.70W
01/04/2013 E1.5 INCH LINCOLN NM TRAINED SPOTTER
0600 AM SNOW PICACHO 33.35N 105.14W
01/04/2013 E1.0 INCH LINCOLN NM TRAINED SPOTTER
0600 AM SNOW 4 E ELK 32.93N 105.26W
01/04/2013 E1.5 INCH CHAVES NM TRAINED SPOTTER
0600 AM SNOW 16 NE DUNKEN 32.97N 105.00W
01/04/2013 E1.0 INCH CHAVES NM TRAINED SPOTTER
0600 AM SNOW 16 SE CORONA 34.09N 105.40W
01/04/2013 E2.0 INCH LINCOLN NM TRAINED SPOTTER
0600 AM SNOW LAKE ARTHUR 33.00N 104.37W
01/04/2013 E2.5 INCH CHAVES NM TRAINED SPOTTER
0600 AM SNOW CARRIZOZO 33.64N 105.88W
01/04/2013 E2.0 INCH LINCOLN NM TRAINED SPOTTER
0600 AM SNOW DEXTER 33.19N 104.37W
01/04/2013 E1.0 INCH CHAVES NM LAW ENFORCEMENT
0600 AM SNOW 1 SSE LINCOLN 33.48N 105.38W
01/04/2013 E1.0 INCH LINCOLN NM TRAINED SPOTTER
0600 AM SNOW 4 NNW ANCHO 33.99N 105.75W
01/04/2013 E1.0 INCH LINCOLN NM TRAINED SPOTTER
0900 AM SNOW 5 SW BONITO LAKE 33.40N 105.78W
01/04/2013 E2.0 INCH LINCOLN NM OTHER FEDERAL
SIERRA BLANCA SNOTEL.
0930 AM SNOW 16 E ELKINS 33.69N 103.78W
01/04/2013 E1.0 INCH CHAVES NM TRAINED SPOTTER
Re: January: Tracking The Jan 7th-11th Storm System
Posted: Fri Jan 04, 2013 1:29 pm
by srainhoutx
The HPC Model Diagnostic Discussion favors the Euro and it ensembles so far for the next week Storm. The 12Z Euro is less progressive and is suggesting a closed core low (at 500mb) slowly meandering S of the Great Basin across Southern New Mexico before turning a bit ENE. The GEFS has trended a bit slower, but remains on the faster side of the 12Z solutions at this time. Once this system ejects into the Plains, some major changes lie ahead as yet another Winter Storm crosses the Southern Rockies/Southern Plains and perhaps phases with a storm system riding the Polar Jet from Western Canada late next week into next weekend ushering in some very chilly air that appears to entrench the West and the Plains all the way down to the Western/Central Gulf Coast. As always, we'll see if all this plays out as the computer models suggest...
![Wink ;)](./images/smilies/icon_e_wink.gif)
Re: January: Tracking The Jan 7th-11th Storm System
Posted: Fri Jan 04, 2013 3:01 pm
by srainhoutx
Very impressive full latitude long wave trough via the 12Z Euro Ensembles..
Re: January: Tracking The Jan 7th-11th Storm System
Posted: Fri Jan 04, 2013 3:23 pm
by jasons2k
Yuck. Since the holidays are over now, I'm ready for spring!
Side note: I was in Austin last weekend & had forgotten how brown everything looks after a hard freeze. It was downright depressing looking with all the brown grass (sorry Porta). I hope we can skip it this winter for a change.
Re: January: Tracking The Jan 7th-11th Storm System
Posted: Fri Jan 04, 2013 3:39 pm
by Portastorm
jasons wrote:Yuck. Since the holidays are over now, I'm ready for spring!
Side note: I was in Austin last weekend & had forgotten how brown everything looks after a hard freeze. It was downright depressing looking with all the brown grass (sorry Porta). I hope we can skip it this winter for a change.
I've been trying to tell folks that "yes, it (drought) is really bad here." We had one period early in the fall where it rained a bit. Honestly, since October we haven't had much rain at all. Lake Travis is way, way down. Vegetation/grass is very brown. We're desperate for some ample rainfall.
A hard freeze would be devastating to the Austin area in several ways. First, the obvious effects of a hard freeze in any year. Second, it would just exponentially magnify the wildfire threat if the drought continues as we'd have a tinderbox of grass/vegetation around us.
Re: January: Tracking The Jan 7th-11th Storm System
Posted: Fri Jan 04, 2013 3:58 pm
by harpman
srainhoutx wrote:Very impressive full latitude long wave trough via the 12Z Euro Ensembles..
Wow, that looks like a cold air pipeline!
Re: January: Tracking The Jan 7th-11th Storm System
Posted: Fri Jan 04, 2013 4:39 pm
by srainhoutx
It’s time to start focusing on the next storm system which has a
potential to be a high impact event for our Region. The 12Z suite of ensembles are in and while there remain some uncertainty on the eventual track and timing, it does appear the threat of a Winter Storm with both wintry and severe elements may well have an effect on New Mexico/Texas/Oklahoma into Louisiana. At this time the on set of this developing storm would be Monday to our W across New Mexico and Tuesday into Wednesday depending on which solution ends up being more correct. We will need to keep an eye for development over the weekend into early next week as there are strong signals that a very potent dynamic Winter Storm will have an impact, be it wintry or severe.
Re: January: Tracking The Jan 7th-11th Storm System
Posted: Fri Jan 04, 2013 5:45 pm
by tireman4
Not sure if anyone posted this from HGX NWS...but....I wonder (humm) what the last statement means...LOL
FXUS64 KHGX 042207
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
407 PM CST FRI JAN 4 2013
.DISCUSSION...
NOT TOO MANY CHANGES FOR THE SHORT TERM PART OF THE FCST WITH THIS
PACKAGE AS THE COLD/CLOUDY/WET PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE OVER SE TX
THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THIS WEEKEND. STRONG SOUTHERN STREAM JET
HELPING TO BRING A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE
NEXT ONE LOOKING LIKE IT IS GOING TO MOVE THROUGH OUR CWA LATE TO-
NIGHT/SAT (PER LATEST THE WV LOOPS).
THE PERSISTENT BKN/OVC MID/HIGH CLOUD DECK SHOULD BREAK BY SUN AS
THE MAIN UPPER TROF AXIS SHIFTS EAST AND THE BRIEF RIDGING DEVEL-
OPS IN ITS WAKE. BUT AS IT HAS BEEN THE TREND OF LATE...THIS VERY
PROGRESSIVE UPPER PATTERN WILL BE BRINGING THE NEXT SYSTEM TOWARD
THE STATE QUICKLY. WHILE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WE ARE STILL
SEEING MARKED DIFFERENCES IN REGARD TO THE TIMING FOR THE PASSAGE
OF THE NEXT CLOSED UPPER LOW STORM SYSTEM. ECMWF RETAINING A LONE
WOLF ROLE WITH ITS SLOWER TIMING...WITH THE GFS APPEARING TO HAVE
SPED UP WITH THE 12Z RUNS. DID MAKE SOME CHANGES TO POPS FOR THIS
TUES/TUES NIGHT TIMEFRAME ACCOUNT FOR THE UNCERTAINTY. REGARDLESS
WE COULD BE DEALING WITH STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THIS SYSTEM (NO MATTER WHICH DAY IT ARRIVES). PROGS OF STRONG LOW
TO MID LEVEL INFLOW (40-50KTS)...FAVOURABLE POSITION OF THE UPPER
JET (LFQ) AND THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT ITSELF ALL SEEM TO BE
POINTING IN THAT DIRECTION. BEAR WATCH IN PLACE. 41
http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1
Re: January: Tracking The Jan 7th-11th Storm System
Posted: Fri Jan 04, 2013 7:30 pm
by Ptarmigan
srainhoutx wrote:It’s time to start focusing on the next storm system which has a potential to be a high impact event for our Region. The 12Z suite of ensembles are in and while there remain some uncertainty on the eventual track and timing, it does appear the threat of a Winter Storm with both wintry and severe elements may well have an effect on New Mexico/Texas/Oklahoma into Louisiana. At this time the on set of this developing storm would be Monday to our W across New Mexico and Tuesday into Wednesday depending on which solution ends up being more correct. We will need to keep an eye for development over the weekend into early next week as there are strong signals that a very potent dynamic Winter Storm will have an impact, be wintry or severe.
Somehow I get a feeling this could be a night event. Night storm events are common when there are cold fronts. I see more night events in fall and spring than in winter. Last January's storm was a morning event.
Re: January: Tracking The Jan 7th-11th Storm System
Posted: Fri Jan 04, 2013 7:40 pm
by harpman
What does "bear watch in place" mean? Not quite sure.....
Re: January: Tracking The Jan 7th-11th Storm System
Posted: Fri Jan 04, 2013 8:00 pm
by C2G
harpman wrote:What does "bear watch in place" mean? Not quite sure.....
Just means we need to watch the situation closely for the possibility of strong to severe thunderstorms.
Or, maybe we have a rampant, out of control bear population I wasn't aware of?
Re: January: Tracking The Jan 7th-11th Storm System
Posted: Fri Jan 04, 2013 9:04 pm
by jasons2k
Hmm. Over 2" per HPC next week. I love that forecast. Not to sound too cynical....but I'll believe it when I see it.
Re: January: Tracking The Jan 7th-11th Storm System
Posted: Sat Jan 05, 2013 1:01 am
by gocuse22
Re: January: Tracking The Jan 7th-11th Storm System
Posted: Sat Jan 05, 2013 4:46 am
by C2G
Looks like a wet day for southeast Texas.
Love this much needed rain.
![Image](http://radar.weather.gov/lite/N0R/HGX_loop.gif)
Re: January: Tracking The Jan 7th-11th Storm System
Posted: Sat Jan 05, 2013 7:43 am
by srainhoutx
A very wet morning across Coastal Texas and Western Louisiana this morning. A wave of low pressure is SSE of Corpus Christi this morning providing lift and over running light to moderate showers from the Coastal Bend to Ft Polk. Temps are chilly in the lower 40's as the sub tropical jet remains noisy across our Southern Regions.
All eyes turn W toward the California Coast tomorrow as a storm system over the Pacific begins to move inland. While there remain some timing issues, it does appear that a very stormy pattern is ahead for Tuesday into Wednesday. The SPC has outlined a large portion of S/S Central/Central/SE/E Texas and possibly extending into Western Louisiana for a chance of storms, some possibly severe. The HPC paints 3-4 inch QPF amounts for Central/E Texas extending into Western Louisiana. The guidance continues to advertise a cold core upper low will develop across Texas and a surface low will form along the Coast and ride ENE setting the stage for a potential very heavy rainfall event for a large portion of our Region. If the trends continue, I would not be surprised to see Flash Flood Watches hoisted on Monday for parts of Central/SE/E/NE TX and perhaps portions of Louisiana. We'll need to monitor the SPC for the potential of a Slight Risk issuance in future updates as well.
Re: January: Tracking The Jan 7th-11th Storm System
Posted: Sat Jan 05, 2013 8:38 am
by Portastorm
Wouldn't mind seeing a 3-4 inch QPF "bomb" right over Austin this next week. We would welcome the rain.