April: Warm & Muggy To End The Month. Showers Monday?

[jasons2k]

Keep an eye out today as we will have plenty of time for daytime heating with this one. It sure is windy too!

[srainhoutx]

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0752 AM CDT SUN APR 15 2012

VALID 151300Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR NE
IA...SE MN...AND WRN WI...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY TO E
TX/NW LA...

...UPPER MS VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE EVENING...
AN INTENSE MIDLEVEL TROUGH/110 KT JET...AND AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE
CYCLONE...WILL PROGRESS NEWD FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE UPPER MS
VALLEY BY EARLY TONIGHT. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL LIKEWISE MOVE
EWD FROM ERN NEB/KS THIS MORNING TO CENTRAL IA/WRN MO BY THIS
EVENING. SOME MOISTENING /BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS OF 60-62 F/ IS
EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF WEAKENING MORNING CONVECTION ACROSS NRN
MO/SRN IA...AS WELL AS SOME SURFACE HEATING WITH CLOUD BREAKS ON THE
NOSE OF THE MIDLEVEL DRY SLOT. THE NET RESULT WILL BE MODEST
DESTABILIZATION IN A CORRIDOR IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW
AND A LITTLE S OF THE LOW ALONG THE TRAILING COLD FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON IN IA/SRN MN. THE SYNOPTIC SITUATION SUPPORTS THE
DEVELOPMENT OF AN ARC OF STORMS BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON ACROSS NW
IA...AND STORMS THEN MOVE QUICKLY EWD/NEWD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THIS SCENARIO IS GENERALLY SUPPORTED BY MOST SHORT-RANGE
MODEL GUIDANCE...AS WELL AS CONVECTION-ALLOWING RUNS.

MLCAPE COULD INCREASE TO NEAR 1000 J/KG OR SO IN THE MDT RISK
AREA...WHILE VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE QUITE STRONG WITH EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR OF 70-80 KT AND EFFECTIVE SRH OF 200-300 M2/S2. THIS WILL
SUPPORT FAST-MOVING STORMS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGHLY-SHEARED
SUPERCELLS /GIVEN THE MODEST BUOYANCY/ CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
TORNADOES...AS WELL AS BOWING SEGMENTS WITH A DAMAGING WIND RISK.
LARGE HAIL CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY SUSTAINED
SUPERCELLS. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL GRADUALLY WANE IN THE 00-03Z
TIME FRAME ACROSS WI AS THE STORMS MOVE E OF THE MORE UNSTABLE WARM
SECTOR.

...MO/IL SWD TO AR/NW LA/E TX...
A BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES FROM SE KS ACROSS ERN OK INTO
NRN/CENTRAL TX AS OF 12Z. A TREND FOR INCREASING SURFACE MOISTURE
HAS BEEN NOTED RECENTLY IN ADVANCE OF THE LINE ACROSS ERN OK...AND
ADDITIONAL MOISTENING/DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY
FARTHER E AND N INTO AR/MO. THUS...THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTION ALONG THE SLIGHTLY PRE-FRONTAL BAND TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY
THIS MORNING...AND THEN EXPAND/INTENSIFY BY AFTERNOON BOTH SWD INTO
E TX...AND NWD INTO MO. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS LINE OF STORMS IN A SOMEWHAT UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND
PROFILE. HOWEVER...LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT THE RISK FOR A COUPLE OF TORNADOES TODAY.

..THOMPSON/MOSIER.. 04/15/2012

[srainhoutx]

04152012 mcd0546.gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0546
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0925 AM CDT SUN APR 15 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN TX...ERN OK...WRN AR AND SWRN THROUGH SCNTRL
MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 176...

VALID 151425Z - 151600Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 176
CONTINUES.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 176 WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE REPLACED WITH A
TORNADO WATCH BEFORE 16Z. NEW WW WOULD INCLUDE A PORTION OF NERN
TX...EXTREME ERN OK...WRN AR INTO SRN MO.

SQUALL LINE FROM EXTREME SWRN MO SWWD THROUGH ERN OK AND NERN TX
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ADVANCING EWD THROUGH NERN TX INTO THE
LOWER-MID MS VALLEY THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. A 50 KT LLJ
DEVELOPING SLOWLY NEWD WILL ADVECT SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS NWD
WITH TIME. VISIBLE IMAGERY IS SHOWING SOME CLOUD BREAKS...AND AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS AN AXIS OF 800-1200 J/KG MLCAPE MAY DEVELOP NWD
INTO MO. VERY LARGE HODOGRAPHS WILL PERSIST ALONG THE LLJ AXIS JUST
EAST OF THE LINE ALONG WITH STRONG EFFECTIVE SHEAR. DESPITE A
DOMINANT LINEAR MODE...POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN FOR SOME OF THE STORMS
IN THE LINE TO EVOLVE INTO SUPERCELLS. BOWING SEGMENTS ARE ALSO
LIKELY. GIVEN FAVORABLE HODOGRAPHS...THE THREAT FOR A FEW TORNADOES
IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZES.

..DIAL.. 04/15/2012


ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...FWD...

[Paul]

that pressure gradient is tight! just got a TS gust in the mid- 30's....sheehs.....dynamics are there for a interesting evening. Put out the bonus S.....

[tireman4]

Torcon for today and tomorrow....

Sunday April 15
AR west, central - 4
AR east - 3 night
IA northeast - 7
IA northwest - 3
IA central, southeast - 5
IL northeast, central, southwest - 4
IL south - 3 to 4 night
IN northwest - 3 to 4
KY west - 3 night
LA northwest - 3 to 4
LA north, west - 3 night
MI upper - 3 to 4
MI lower - 3 to 4 night
MN southeast - 7
MN southwest - 4
MN east-central - 5
MO northeast, central, south - 4
MS northwest - 3 night
OK southeast - 3
TN west - 3 night
TX east - 3
WI southwest, west-central - 7
WI southeast, east-central - 4 to 5
WI north - 3 to 4
Other areas - less than 2


Monday April 16
AL - 2
GA west - 2
KY northeast - 2
LA central, south - 2
ME northwest - 2
MS northeast, central, south - 2
NH north - 2
NY west, north - 2
OH south-central, east - 2
PA west - 2
TN southeast - 2
TX coastal - 2
VT north - 2
Other areas - 1 or less


http://www.weather.com/outlook/weather- ... 2011-07-11

[srainhoutx]

Keeping a close eye on Burleson/Washington Counties. There appears to be a boundary across that region and as the pre frontal trough/outflow boundary from the diffuse line of storms slowly progressing E from Central TX, storm initiation may well begin to increase. Very gusty and extremely humid out there with peak heating ahead...

[srainhoutx]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
105 PM CDT SUN APR 15 2012


.AVIATION...
LINE OF SHOWERS FROM SAT TO ATT TO PRX MOVING SOUTHEAST WITH A FEW
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS SLOWLY RELAXING
THIS AFTERNOON. ATMOSPHERE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE BOUNDARY WAS
STRONGLY CAPPED PER THE TAMU 15Z SOUNDING AND MODEL SOUNDINGS THE
CAP SHOULD ERODE BUT MAY BE JUST A LINE OF SHOWERS NEAR ARM WITH
MORE SHRA/TSRA MIXED AS IT REACHES IAH/SGR/HOU AREA AROUND 22-02Z
TIME FRAME. EXPECT A BKN DECK TO DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE FIRST
PUSH OF STORMS THIS EVENING THEN AS UPPER JET REALLY COMES TO BEAR
THE FRONT SHOULD STALL AND SHRA/TSRA SHOULD REDEVELOP BUT STILL
SOME ISSUES WITH WHERE THEY WILL FOCUS...AT PRESENT WILL BE
KEEPING THEM MAINLY IAH VCSH/-SHRA TO SHRA/VCTS FOR THE GLS AREA
BETWEEN 10-18Z.

[ajurcat]

So what does it mean with the line somewhat breaking apart around College Station? Good or bad or ?

[srainhoutx]

It appears the boundary is stalling in our NW zones near Bryan/College Station. The 15Z SPC SREF suggests storms will begin to fire along the HWY 59 Corridor near or just after 00Z. We'll see how things progress, but streamer showers are developing out ahead of that boundary under the cap. Time will tell I suppose as to who and where any heavy training storms begin to fire, if at all.

[Ptarmigan]

Code: Select all

000
FXUS64 KHGX 152059
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
359 PM CDT SUN APR 15 2012

.DISCUSSION...
LINE OF STORMS STILL LOOKING AWFULLY RAGGEDY AS IT MOVES INTO THE
AREA...LARGELY IN PART TO THE STRONG CAP IN PLACE OVER SE TX. BUT
THAT BEING SAID A BIT RELUCTANT TO REMOVE THE MENTION OF SVR ATTM
AS THERE IS STILL A VERY ISOLATED CHC OF STRONG/SVR ACTIVITY THRU
THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTN. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN PLACE FOR POSS-
IBLE EVENTS OVERNIGHT/TOMORROW. MODELS KEEPING WITH THE IDEA OF A
MORE WET PERIOD AS THEY STALL THE BOUNDARY OVER THE REGION. SHORT
WAVE ENERGY COMBINED WITH A FAVORABLE UPPER JET PATTERN DOES SEEM
TO INDICATE BETTER RAIN CHCS OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW. BUT...GIVEN
THE CURRENT TRENDS...HARD-PRESSED TO GET TOO OPTIMISTIC ABOUT THE
POSSIBILITY. CONDTIONS SHOULD IMPROVE LATE MON/TUES AS THIS BOUN-
DARY SLOWLY WASHES OUT AND HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS OVER THE AREA.
41

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1

Cockroach cap is holding up at this time. I think it will weaken later tonight before the cold front comes.

[Katdaddy]

Watching a rapidly developing storm NNE of Beeville and showing signs of rotation.

[srainhoutx]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
515 PM CDT SUN APR 15 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CORPUS CHRISTI HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
WESTERN GOLIAD COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS

* UNTIL 600 PM CDT

* AT 511 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
PAIR OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GOLF BALL SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE
LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM CHARCO TO 8 MILES NORTHWEST OF
BERCLAIR...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 12 MILES NORTHWEST OF
GOLIAD TO 16 MILES NORTH OF BEEVILLE. THESE STORMS WERE NEARLY
STATIONARY.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BERCLAIR...

[Andrew]

Maybe a little rotation with the cell down south but not much right now:

[Rip76]

About to get crankin'?

Seems like it...

[srainhoutx]

Cap appears to be breaking. We'll see how the developing MCS in S Central TX affects the boundary...

04152012 22Z VIS TX latest.jpg

04152012 23Z VIS TX latest.jpg

04162012 00Z VIS TX f0015.jpg

[srainhoutx]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0555
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0629 PM CDT SUN APR 15 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF MIDDLE TEXAS COASTAL AREAS AND ADJACENT
COASTAL PLAIN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 152329Z - 160100Z

THE NEED FOR A WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...BUT TRENDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF AN INCREASING SEVERE
THREAT.

LOCALLY ENHANCED CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE INTERSECTION OF AN
INLAND ADVANCING SEA-BREEZE AND SOUTHEASTWARD ADVANCING WEAK COLD
FRONT APPEARS TO HAVE BEEN THE INITIATING MECHANISM FOR ISOLATED
INTENSE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO THE SOUTHWEST OF VICTORIA. THIS
IS BEING SUPPORTED BY FAIRLY LARGE CAPE OF 2000-3000+ J/KG...IN THE
PRESENCE OF HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES. DEEP LAYER SHEAR BENEATH 30-50 KT SOUTHERLY 500 MB FLOW IS
AT LEAST MARGINALLY SUFFICIENT FOR SUBSTANTIVE MID-LEVEL UPDRAFT
ROTATION. AIDED BY A FOCUSED AREA OF ENHANCED LOWER/MID
TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION...ACTIVITY MAY PERSIST AT LEAST ANOTHER
SEVERAL HOURS. IT IS NOT CLEAR THAT A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN
COVERAGE WILL OCCUR...BUT THE RISK FOR LARGE HAIL COULD
CONTINUE...ALONG WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED
TORNADO...PERHAPS EVENTUALLY A LOCALIZED STRONG DOWNBURST...MAINLY
WEST/NORTHWEST OF CORPUS CHRISTI THROUGH 00-02Z.

..KERR.. 04/15/2012


ATTN...WFO...CRP...

[Rip76]

May have just missed the boat with this one.

Cap breaking, heating gone...

[Ptarmigan]

Looks to be more of a night event.

[C2G]

Looks to be more of a night event.

Which I prefer. Looks like Victoria could be the area to watch. If that complex holds together or grows it will be a fun night.

[srainhoutx]

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
750 PM CDT SUN APR 15 2012

TXC469-160130-
/O.CON.KCRP.SV.W.0054.000000T0000Z-120416T0130Z/
VICTORIA-
750 PM CDT SUN APR 15 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 830 PM CDT
FOR VICTORIA COUNTY...

AT 731 PM CDT...THE PUBLIC REPORTED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING
QUARTER SIZE HAIL. THIS STORM WAS NOW LOCATED NEAR VICTORIA COLONY
CREEK COUNTRY CLUB...OR NEAR VICTORIA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.
THIS STORM HAS WEAKENED SLIGHTLY...BUT COULD RE-INTENSIFY AND
PRODUCE QUARTER SIZED HAIL AGAIN.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
VICTORIA REGIONAL AIRPORT...
TELFERNER...
WOOD HI...
SALEM...
INEZ...