March: Warm Days To End The Month With Isolated Showers

[srainhoutx]

Morning e-mail from Jeff:

Significant severe weather event including the potential for strong tornadoes increasingly likely this afternoon through Tuesday.



Heavy rainfall and flash flooding also likely on Tuesday.



SPC has upgraded the severe threat to a moderate risk for much of central and north TX.



Discussion:

Powerful upper level storm system will move slowly into the southern plains today/Tuesday with widespread downstream thunderstorm development over TX. Parameters appear to be coming together for a widespread severe weather event across much of the state this afternoon-Tuesday. Combination of increasingly cooler air aloft over heated surface air, strong jet stream dynamics, tremendous wind energy, and favorable instability all point to severe weather including tornadoes…a few strong.



As large scale forcing increases this afternoon over central TX, expect to see rapid development of isolate supercells capable of very large hail (baseball size or larger) and tornadoes. Meso scale models show numerous supercells developing in the 300-800pm period this evening roughly along the I-35 corridor in central TX with fairly rapid upscale growth into a large line of severe thunderstorms extending from SW MO to S TX overnight/early Tuesday. Initial cells will be a higher tornado threat (see SPC moderate risk outline below) in the region of favorable backed low level flow lending strong low level shear in a very moist air mass. Strong squall line (possible bow echo…line of thunderstorm with widespread wind damage) appears possible after midnight across central and SC TX in the region of strong jet dynamics and favorable low level Gulf inflow (low level jet of 50kts+ over the middle/upper TX coast). Strong mid level flow of 60-80kts plowing into the underside of the upper level storm and the backside of the squall line suggest wind damage is likely with this line. Surface wind gusts to 60-70mph will be possible with the squall line.



Line should approach our western counties between 200-400am and then slow some reaching the I-45 corridor between 600-1000am. Still some questions on timing as the models slow the line as the main upper storm slows down however strong cold pool generation could help shove this line faster to the east than the meso models are suggesting. Some concern than meso low formation on the line just north of SE TX could result in a buckling and slowing/stalling of the line over some portion of the area on Tuesday into Tuesday night which would keep a severe and then significant flash flood threat into Tuesday night.



Severe Impacts:

Damaging winds of 60mph or greater appear to be the greatest threat at this time with large hail and tornadoes a close second. Wind threat will increase overnight into early Tuesday with the greatest tornado threat this evening and then again on Tuesday after mid morning as the air mass heats. As is usual with these types of squall lines in SE TX brief tornadoes will be possible along the leading edge of the line with little warning.



Heavy Rainfall:

Starting to get a little concerned with a few of the models trying to slow and stall the line of storms over the area on Tuesday-Tuesday night. Moisture levels will be increasing to near 200% of normal today and with very favorable low level inflow off the Gulf and strong upper level divergence aloft the red flags for excessive rainfall are in place. Main question is does the storms move through or slow enough to drop 4-5 inches of rainfall in a few hours. Given the amounts of moisture that will be in place combined with the threat for slowing storm motions and training of cells some hefty short term totals will be possible. Models have been bouncing around with the idea of widespread amounts of 2-4 inches across various areas of SE TX and the latest HPC output shows a large swath of 2-4 inches over the area with a bullseye of 6.42 inches just east of metro Houston. Given the likelihood of high short term rainfall rates of (1-3 inches per hour) urban ponding/flooding on streets and areas of poor drainage is likely. Grounds are already wet from previous rainfall and run-off will be enhanced with this event producing rises on area watersheds. Flash Flood Watches have been issued for central and north TX and a watch may be required for parts of SE TX later today.



Hydro:

Several rivers are still seeing higher than normal flows from the last round of heavy rainfall and based on the current forecast several basins will see additional widespread very heavy rains tonight-Wednesday. Form the WGRFC in Fort Worth:



Moderate River flooding is likely on the: Upper Sabine, Upper Neches, and middle Trinity Rivers.

Moderate River flooding is possible on the: Middle Brazos, middle Colorado, upper Guadalupe, and upper San Antonio Rivers.



Rises to flood stage will be possible on smaller creeks and bayous across the state.



***Remember to never drive into high water even if it is “not deep”. Always turn around don’t drown!



Tornado Safety:

We have seen the large tornado outbreaks over the past year and TX has been largely spared in part due to the drought. The following tips are reminders of what to do if a tornado approaches your location:



Seek shelter in a strong sturdy building, abandon poor constructed housing

Abandon mobile homes for strong shelter, if no shelter is available lie flat in a ditch or low area and cover your head with your hands.

In a strongly built structure move to an interior room on the lowest floor of the location away from windows and outside facing walls. Cover yourself with pillows and blankets to protect from flying debris.

Never tie to outrun a tornado…abandon vehicles for strong shelter, if a strong shelter is not available lie flat in a ditch an d cover your head…DO NOT hide under freeway overpasses…they act as wind tunnels and increase the wind speeds under and around them.



SPC Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook:

[redneckweather]

Looks like a pretty active day.

Where are the storm chasers setting up today?

[srainhoutx]

Jeff forgot something...

With everything else going on this morning…forgot to mention the Wind Advisory in effect for the entire region today as the focus is on the severe and flash flood threat.



As low pressure deepens to our west and northwest a strong pressure gradient will be developing over the region. Sustained winds of 20-25mph will be possible with gust to 35-40mph this afternoon. Breaks in the clouds could allow for a few stronger gusts from the developing wind energy aloft to transport to the surface.



Increasing low level jet this evening will keep gusty winds in place overnight ahead of the incoming squall line. Potential for meso/wake low formation along this line could result in a period of very strong winds both prior and post squall line, but this is uncertain at this point.

[Ounce]

So what would we be seeing today that would show a slowing or stalling of the system on Tuesday? Thanks.

[srainhoutx]

So what would we be seeing today that would show a slowing or stalling of the system on Tuesday? Thanks.

The shorter range meso guidance is suggesting a deepening cut off upper low to our W with a surface low developing later tonight into tomorrow morning near the Middle Texas Coast with the dry line/Pacific boundary re-orienting from a SW to NE fashion in Central TX along the I-35 Corridor to that of a S to N orientation of the main upper trough axis from Galveston on N tomorrow. We'll need to monitor events moment by moment along with future guidance and basically now casting as the events get closer. That said the heavy rain fall and flash flood potential will need to be watched very carefully and not under estimated with this very potent Spring Storm.

[srainhoutx]

Update SPC Outlook...

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0750 AM CDT MON MAR 19 2012

VALID 191300Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL AND NRN
TX...SERN OK...AND WRN AR...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MID MO VALLEY SWD INTO
TX...

...SYNOPSIS...

FULL-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL PROGRESS EWD
INTO THE HIGH PLAINS WITH A CLOSED MIDLEVEL CIRCULATION FORMING OVER
NM LATE TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ATTENDED BY MULTIPLE EMBEDDED
VORTICITY MAXIMA...ONE OF WHICH IS LIFTING NWD THROUGH THE NRN HIGH
PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT IMPULSE WHICH IS FORECAST TO EJECT
ENEWD INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. BY
LATER TONIGHT...A COUPLED UPPER-LEVEL JET STRUCTURE WILL FOSTER
INTENSE UVV ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL/ERN TX.

IN THE LOW LEVELS...OCCLUDING SURFACE CYCLONE OVER NERN MT WILL LIFT
NWD WITH SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS FORECAST ALONG ATTENDANT PACIFIC
FRONT OVER WRN KS AND LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY. THIS PACIFIC FRONT
WILL CONTINUE EWD INTO LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE GREAT PLAINS WITH THE
SRN EXTENSION OF FRONT DECELERATING LATE TONIGHT OWING TO THE
CLOSING OFF OF THE UPPER SYSTEM OVER NM.

...SRN PLAINS...

THE FORECAST REMAINS COMPLEX OWING TO ONGOING STORMS AHEAD OF THE
PACIFIC FRONT FROM CNTRL OK INTO W-CNTRL TX. THOUGH MODEL SOLUTIONS
VARY WITH REGARD TO SPECIFIC STORM EVOLUTION LATER TODAY...IT DOES
APPEAR THAT THE PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTIVE BAND FROM W OF SPS TO E OF
MAF SHOULD INTENSIFY LATER THIS MORNING ACROSS PARTS OF SRN OK AND
NRN INTO W-CNTRL TX. ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG TX SEGMENT OF PACIFIC FRONT AS STRONGER HEIGHT FALLS
ATTENDANT TO UPSTREAM VORTICITY MAXIMUM /CURRENTLY OVER NRN MEXICO
AND SRN AZ/NM/ PROGRESS INTO THE SRN PLAINS. THE NET RESULT IS FOR
MULTIPLE TSTM EPISODES TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF S-CNTRL/SERN OK...WRN
AR AND CNTRL/ERN TX THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

12Z REGIONAL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF A MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER BENEATH STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WHICH WILL YIELD MODERATE
TO STRONG AFTERNOON INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE VALUES APPROACHING
2000-3000 J/KG ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND HILL COUNTRY TO
1000-1500 J/KG OVER PARTS OF ERN OK. THIS INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH
45-55 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELL AND BOW ECHO
STORM MODES WITH ATTENDANT THREATS FOR DAMAGING WINDS...VERY LARGE
HAIL...AND TORNADOES. CURRENTLY...IT APPEARS THE GREATEST POTENTIAL
FOR TORNADOES WILL EXIST THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FROM PORTIONS
OF NERN TX INTO SERN OK/SWRN AR WHERE THE SWRN EXTENSION OF
STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL OVERLAP WITH THE NRN EXTENT OF
STRONGER INSTABILITY.

EXPECT SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...A FEW
TORNADOES...AND EXCESSIVE RAINFALL TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO
ERN/SERN TX AHEAD OF SLOW-MOVING PACIFIC FRONT.


...CNTRL PLAINS/MID AND LOWER-MO VALLEY...

THE ACTIVE COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH THE NRN EXTENT OF NOCTURNAL MCS
OVER CNTRL KS IS EXPECTED TO SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR RENEWED TSTM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE PORTIONS OF THE MID-MO VALLEY SWD INTO FAR
ERN KS AND MO LATER TODAY. AFTERNOON AIR MASS IS NOT EXPECTED TO
BECOME PARTICULARLY UNSTABLE /I.E. MLCAPE VALUES LESS THAN 1000-1500
J PER KG/ DUE TO PERSISTENT CLOUDS AND WEAKENING MIDLEVEL LAPSE
RATES. HOWEVER...A 40-50 KT SLY LLJ IS FORECAST ACROSS THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...WHICH WHEN COUPLED WITH A STEADILY
STRENGTHENING MIDLEVEL WIND FIELD...WILL RESULT IN A KINEMATIC
ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF BOWING AND/OR SUPERCELL STORM MODES WITH
AN ASSOCIATED RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL AND POSSIBLY A FEW
TORNADOES.

ADDITIONAL...MORE ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING ALONG THE PACIFIC FRONT FROM NE OF WRN KS
SURFACE LOW SEWD INTO CNTRL KS. HERE...STEEP LOW- TO MIDLEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A WEAKLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO.

...MID ATLANTIC...

VORTICITY MAXIMUM OVER THE UPPER OH VALLEY WILL CONTINUE SEWD ACROSS
THE REGION TODAY...SERVING AS THE FOCUS FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT.
REGION WILL RESIDE ON ERN FRINGE OF STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATE PLUME
PRECEDING WRN U.S. TROUGH WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AFTERNOON MLCAPE
OF 1000-1500 J/KG. SIMILAR TO PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...THIS
INSTABILITY WILL COMBINE WITH DCVA AHEAD OF MIDLEVEL IMPULSE AND
25-30 KT OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR TO SUPPORT A FEW MARGINALLY ORGANIZED
STORM CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF SEVERE HAIL AND PERHAPS LOCALLY GUSTY
WINDS.

..MEAD/GARNER.. 03/19/2012

[srainhoutx]

Some of the early SPC 09Z SREF data suggests areas near the Rio Grande from Del Rio down to Laredo and on E into the San Antonio (I-35 Corridor) will need to be watched very carefully later today.

Edit to add image valid for 03/20/2012 00Z with significant parameters in Central TX...

03192012 09Z SPC SREF SREF_prob_combined_sigtor__f015.gif

06Z...

03192012 09Z SREF_prob_combined_sigtor__f021.gif

[texoz]

sun is peaking out here in Austin this morning.

my wife says, "that's good?"
I say, "No. Clouds. I want lots of clouds and no heating."

[Portastorm]

Some of the early SPC 09Z SREF data suggests areas near the Rio Grande from Del Rio down to Laredo and on E into the San Antonio (I-35 Corridor) will need to be watched very carefully later today.

Edit to add image valid for 03/20/2012 00Z with significant parameters in Central TX...

03192012 09Z SPC SREF SREF_prob_combined_sigtor__f015.gif

06Z...

03192012 09Z SREF_prob_combined_sigtor__f021.gif

Reed Timmer and his uparmored crimson painted Chevy Suburban are in transit to the Austin-Waco area, hoping to see some action before dark.

I'm a fan (of Reed's) but when he comes to your town ... chasing ... that's not a good thing. Also, as texoz pointed out above, sun breaking through clouds here in Austin. Instability is increasing. So hoping this doesn't end up with another Jarrell-like tornado outbreak.

[tireman4]

Sun breaking out here in Houston too.....

[srainhoutx]

1430Z...a lot of breaks in the clouds obsevered this morning across Central/SE Texas...

[MontgomeryCoWx]

The CAPE values are impressive to say the least. I'm afraid we could see a few EF3/4 out of this system

[unome]

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/hgx/?n=briefing

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/media/fwd/20120319/player.html

[srainhoutx]

HGX strongly suggesting Flash Flood Watches forthcoming as guidance continues to increase QPF with each model run...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1023 AM CDT MON MAR 19 2012

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE...AND NO MORNING UPDATE IS PLANNED
AT THIS TIME. SOUTHEAST TEXAS IS STILL ON TRACK FOR STRONG/SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TOMORROW. ONLY GRID ADJUSTMENT
MADE WAS TO RAISE TOMORROW`S QPF AMOUNTS AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
VERY DEEP MOISTURE LEVELS COMBINING WITH IDEAL JET STRUCTURES ALOFT
THAT WILL BE VERY VERY VERY SUPPORTIVE OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. ONLY
REALLY BIG QUESTION IS HOW LONG WILL THE RAINS LAST? SOME MODELS ARE
INDICATING THE LINE OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WILL WORK ITS WAY EASTWARD
THROUGH ALL OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS TOMORROW. SOME MODELS ARE STALLING THE
BOUNDARY NEAR THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA. SOME MODELS ARE GENERATING
ADDITIONAL STORMS BEHIND THE INITIAL LINE THAT SHOW RAINS CONTINUING
ON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. WE ARE PROBABLY JUST
GOING TO HAVE TO SEE HOW EVERYTHING EVOLVES AS THE DAY PROGRESSES TOMORROW
AS THE MESOSCALE FEATURES THAT THE MODELS CAN`T REALLY PIN POINT POSSIBLY
BECOME THE DOMINATE FEATURES DURING THIS EVENT. AND...WE`LL SEE HOW
LONG THE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS EVENT MEANDERS TO
OUR WEST. WE ARE LEANING TOWARD ISSUING A FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST
TEXAS WITH THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE THAT WILL BE IN EFFECT ON TUESDAY.

[Katdaddy]

Lots of heating going with sun from Houston up to the Dallas area heating the atmosphere which is not good. Wind is sailing between the buildings in downtown Houston.

[texoz]

The CAPE values are impressive to say the least. I'm afraid we could see a few EF3/4 out of this system

what areas are you seeing high CAPE values? Is that a reference to the map posted a few posts earlier?

[MontgomeryCoWx]

The CAPE values are impressive to say the least. I'm afraid we could see a few EF3/4 out of this system

what areas are you seeing high CAPE values? Is that a reference to the map posted a few posts earlier?

KCLL

[MontgomeryCoWx]

GFS for KCLL

[srainhoutx]

Moderate Risk expanded SW a bit via the latest SPC Convective Update...

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1130 AM CDT MON MAR 19 2012

VALID 191630Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT
FOR EXTREME WRN AR...SE OK...AND CENTRAL/NE TX...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM S CENTRAL TX TO MO AND ERN
DAKOTAS/WRN MN THROUGH TONIGHT...

...SYNOPSIS...
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN PERSISTS ACROSS THE CONUS WITH A DEEP
TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES AND A DOWNSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE TN/OH VALLEY
REGION. AN INITIAL OCCLUDED CYCLONE IN NE MT WILL MOVE NNEWD INTO
SK AS A TRAILING FRONT MOVES SLOWLY EWD ACROSS THE ERN DAKOTAS TODAY
AND WRN MN TONIGHT. FARTHER S...A REMNANT LEE CYCLONE PERSISTS IN
ERN CO...WITH THE PAC COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWD INTO W TX. THE FRONT
IS PRECEDED BY AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION...WHICH
NOW EXTENDS FROM ERN NEB SWD ACROSS EXTREME ERN KS...AND THEN SWWD
ACROSS CENTRAL OK INTO NW TX. E OF THE NRN PLAINS FRONT AND
CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS OUTFLOW...A BROAD WARM SECTOR COVERS AREAS EWD
ACROSS THE ENTIRE MS VALLEY REGION. THESE FRONTAL/OUTFLOW SEGMENTS
WILL PROVIDE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH
TONIGHT.

...CENTRAL TX TO ERN OK/WRN AR THROUGH TONIGHT...
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION PERSISTS FROM CENTRAL OK INTO NW TX...WITH NEW
DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING IN RESPONSE TO 40-50 KT LOW-LEVEL SLY FLOW
OVER THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COLD POOL. REGIONAL 12Z SOUNDINGS
REVEALED MODERATE INSTABILITY ACROSS OK/TX IN ADVANCE OF THIS
CONVECTION...WITH SOME WEAKENING OF CONVECTIVE INHIBITION NOTED
ALREADY ACROSS CENTRAL/N TX WHERE SURFACE HEATING IS OCCURRING
WITHIN CLOUD BREAKS. EXPECT THIS CONVECTIVE BAND TO CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY INTENSIFY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS N TX AND ERN OK AS
DESTABILIZATION CONTINUES...AND AN EMBEDDED MID-UPPER SPEED MAX
ROTATES NEWD FROM THE TX BIG BEND. DEEP-LAYER AND LOW-LEVEL SHEAR
WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED BOWING SEGMENTS AND EMBEDDED
SUPERCELLS WITHIN THE LARGER CONVECTIVE SYSTEM...AND MORE DISCRETE
STORM DEVELOP COULD OCCUR WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR FROM E TX INTO ERN
OK/WRN AR THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE PREDOMINATELY LINEAR CONVECTIVE
MODE...DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE A PRIMARY CONCERN...ALONG WITH A FEW
TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL WITH THE STRONGER EMBEDDED STORMS.

OVERNIGHT...THE UPSTREAM TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO EVOLVE INTO A
CLOSED LOW OVER SE NM/FAR W TX. SUBSTANTIAL ASCENT AND A NOTABLE
LOW-LEVEL MASS RESPONSE TO THE NM/W TX TROUGH WILL SUPPORT
ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT IN CENTRAL TX ALONG THE
PAC COLD FRONT/REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. THIS CONVECTION APPEARS
LIKELY TO EVOLVE INTO ANOTHER LARGE MCS WITH AN ACCOMPANYING RISK
FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES WITH EMBEDDED ROTATING STORMS...IN
ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL. RELATIVELY SLOW EWD PROGRESS OF THE BAND
AND TRAINING CONVECTION WILL ALSO RESULT IN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

...MO/IA NWD TO THE ERN DAKOTAS/WRN MN THROUGH TONIGHT...
BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPPER 50S BENEATH STEEP MIDLEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT A CORRIDOR OF WEAK-MODERATE INSTABILITY IN
ADVANCE OF THE COMPOSITE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IN MO/IA...AND THE SURFACE
FRONT ACROSS THE ERN DAKOTAS. SOMEWHAT UNIDIRECTIONAL PROFILES WILL
SUPPORT A RISK FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL WITH A BROKEN BAND
OF STORMS ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS THE
ERN DAKOTAS/WRN MN. STORM COVERAGE IS MORE CERTAIN FARTHER S INTO
MO/IA WHERE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY THIS AFTERNOON ALONG
THE COMPOSITE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY NOW MOVING INTO WRN MO/IA. SOMEWHAT
STRONGER LOW-LEVEL SHEAR /COMPARED TO FARTHER N/ WILL PROMOTE A RISK
FOR EMBEDDED ROTATING STORMS IN A PREDOMINATELY LINEAR CONVECTIVE
MODE...WITH AN ATTENDANT RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS/ISOLATED TORNADOES.

..THOMPSON/LEITMAN.. 03/19/2012

[tireman4]

This could be bad I fear.......