ENSO Updates

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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texoz
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jeff wrote:It really does not mean much for the rest of the ATL season. It is clear while all the indicies are somewhat lagging that the actual affect of warm phase ENSO is clearly being shown across both the Pacific and Atlantic basins. Expect continued above average TC activity in the EPAC and below average in the Atlantic.

Good news is that a wet fall/winter appears fairly likely for the drought plagued southern plains and TX....while conditions locally are not as horrible as they were in the spring....it is still really bad across C TX.
Re: C TX.

Here are some sobering facts from LCRA.

Lakes Travis and Buchanan provide drinking water to more than a million people, and water to industries, businesses and the environment throughout the lower Colorado River basin. The lakes fill when plentiful rain falls in their watersheds. Inflows have been at or near historic lows for an extended period of time during this drought:

January through July 2014 inflows were about 148,000 acre-feet, the fourth lowest on record for that seven-month period.
Inflows from January through April 2014 were the lowest on record for that four-month period.
The lowest annual inflows in history occurred in 2011, with only about 10 percent of the annual average.
The second lowest inflows in history were in 2013.
The third lowest inflows in history were in 2008.
The sixth lowest inflows in history were in 2012.
The ninth lowest inflows in history were in 2009.

http://www.lcra.org/water/water-supply/ ... fault.aspx
BlueJay
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Those are some very eye opening facts. Sobering indeed.
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Ptarmigan
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sambucol wrote:What does that mean in terms of the rest of the hurricane season, Ptarmigan?
El Nino usually means less active Atlantic Hurricane Season as it creates stronger wind shear. However, some active seasons have occurred in El Nino like 1969 and 2004.
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Ptarmigan
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This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 0.5ºC
Niño 3.4 0.4ºC
Niño 3 0.4ºC
Niño 1+2 1.2ºC

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

Region 1+2 warmed, while unchanged for the rest.
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Ptarmigan
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This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 0.7ºC
Niño 3.4 0.5ºC
Niño 3 0.4ºC
Niño 1+2 0.7ºC

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

Region 1+2 cooled, while Region 3 is unchanged. Region 3.4 and 4 have warmed. Region 1+2 fluctuates more due to being next to South America. Continental temperature influences water temperature off the coast. Region 3, 3,4, and 4 are further away from South America or any land mass.
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Ptarmigan
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CFSv2 is predicting multi-year El Nino, which are series of weak to moderate El Nino. There have been multiple-year El Ninos in 1968-1970, 1976-1978, and 1986-1988.
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Ptarmigan
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Subsurface is warming. Could this be a Modoki or Eastern Equatorial El Nino?

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davidiowx
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Hopefully not a modoki. I think the year 2005 in regards to Atlantic Hurricanes should explain why!
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Ptarmigan
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davidiowx wrote:Hopefully not a modoki. I think the year 2005 in regards to Atlantic Hurricanes should explain why!
1995 and 2010 Atlantic Hurricane season also followed a Modoki El Nino.
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Ptarmigan
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This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 0.8ºC
Niño 3.4 0.5ºC
Niño 3 0.4ºC
Niño 1+2 0.7ºC

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

No change for all the region, except Region 4, where it has warmed.
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Ptarmigan
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This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 0.6ºC
Niño 3.4 0.4ºC
Niño 3 0.5ºC
Niño 1+2 0.8ºC

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

Region 1+2 and 3 warmed, while Region 3.4 and 4 cooled.
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Ptarmigan
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This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 0.5ºC
Niño 3.4 0.3ºC
Niño 3 0.5ºC
Niño 1+2 1.1ºC

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf

Region 1+2 warmed, while Region 3 is unchanged. Region 3.4 and 4 have cooled.
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Ptarmigan
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This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 0.5ºC
Niño 3.4 0.4ºC
Niño 3 0.6ºC
Niño 1+2 0.6ºC

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf

Region 1+2 has cooled, while the rest have warmed. Region 1+2 tends to fluctuate more due to being next to South America.
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Ptarmigan
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This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 0.7ºC
Niño 3.4 0.5ºC
Niño 3 0.5ºC
Niño 1+2 0.7ºC

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf

All regions warmed except for Region 3.

I think El Nino is coming.
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Ptarmigan
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Most forecast models have El Nino.

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Ptarmigan
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This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 0.7ºC
Niño 3.4 0.5ºC
Niño 3 0.8ºC
Niño 1+2 0.8ºC

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf

Region 1+2 and 3 have warmed, while Region 3.4 and 4 have stayed the same. El Nino is coming.
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Ptarmigan
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Latest Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) Values
https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seas ... tionindex/

Average for last 30 days -8.4
Average for last 90 days -8.3
Daily contribution to SOI calculation -10.6

Monthly average SOI values
July -4.0
August -10.1
September -6.6

SOI has been around and below -8, which is threshold for El Nino.
SLM87TX
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ALOT OF THIS MAKE ME BELIEVE WE WILL HAVE A EL NINO LIKE 2004, BECAUSE 2004 HAD A WARM OCTOBER. ALL I CAN REMEMBER FROM THAT EL NINO WAS THE 10+ INCHES OF RAIN THAT FELL ON THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER. HOPE THE HILL COUNTRY GETS A SYSTEM LIKE THAT, COULD FIX SUM PROBLEMS.
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Ptarmigan
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CFSv2 forecasts El Nino is here to stay through 2015. It also predicts it getting stronger.

I am also hearing Modoki El Nino is possible this winter like in 2009-2010.
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sambucol
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Does this mean we are going to have a colder winter than last year? Snow chances higher? Coldest winter in decades? Thanks!
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