December: Warm Days & Cool-Foggy Nights To End 2011

[srainhoutx]

This morning on FOX news the met said SPOTTY sleet tonight/tomorrow...don't know if he has a video online or blog or something. Accuweather dropped temps in my area for tomorrow morning to 27 degrees and thursday morning to 28 degrees

Sleet would appear unlikely, as projected upper-air profiles suggest very little moisture will be available by this evening. GFS does have the main upper trof/low passing SE TX by sunrise tomorrow. Such passages have occasionally produced "surprises" in the past, so we can't rule out the chance of a few sleet pellets. Again, though, the problem may be a general lack of moisture aloft.

The 12Z NAM seems to agree...

[JackCruz]

There looks to be ample chances of rain in the coming week and the week after.

[wxman57]

There looks to be ample chances of rain in the coming week and the week after.

Just for fun, I created a meteogram from the latest GFS run (06Z/midnight last night) to check on temps/precip for the next 7 days. At first I thought I'd made a mistake, as the precip wasn't showing up on the graphic. But it's there, the 0.0004" spread out over 4 time periods this coming Friday. Not quite a drought buster. The GFS is indicating possibly moderate rain around the 15th-17th, but that's way too far out to believe it.

[srainhoutx]

It looks like HGX may need to lower those max temps a bit for today. I'm not too sure that I will see that 48F forecast up here in NW Harris County. Currently 37F at this hour.

[djmike]

It looks like HGX may need to lower those max temps a bit for today. I'm not too sure that I will see that 48F forecast up here in NW Harris County. Currently 37F at this hour.

I'd have to agree...Here in Beaumont we got down to 38. We are currently STILL sitting at 39! I just don't see us getting up to 49 according to NWS LC.... We'll see!

[Andrew]

It looks like HGX may need to lower those max temps a bit for today. I'm not too sure that I will see that 48F forecast up here in NW Harris County. Currently 37F at this hour.

I'd have to agree...Here in Beaumont we got down to 38. We are currently STILL sitting at 39! I just don't see us getting up to 49 according to NWS LC.... We'll see!

36 here in College Station. Also btw has anyone looked at the 12z gfs? Showing some possible "interesting stuff" this weekend that the candadian was hinting at last night.

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M

[srainhoutx]

I see HGX has lowered max temps some for the day. It does appear a wide spread freeze is possible Thursday morning, perhaps the coldest of the season so far. The weekend continues to look interesting. It appears a cold front will slide through the area sometime on Friday. What remains to be seen is exactly what will transpire in the NW Gulf as well as timing of an upper air disturbance way out in the Pacific. As we have been saying for a while and is certainly evident in the current pattern, guidance is never set in stone and certainly not beyond 3 days or less...

[redneckweather]

The high temperatures for today will only stray a degree or two from the current temps, if that. With thick cloud cover and a moderate northerly flow continueing to bring in cold air, take that to the bank.

[biggerbyte]

Porter got upper 30s last night, which was below the forecasted low 40s. High temps for today have been dropped to 44. I suspect we might not quite make that.

[srainhoutx]

A nice visible image this afternoon depicting snow cover across N MX/CO/Western Panhandle as well as a swath of snow from SE CO to WI.

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z Euro also suggests some over running continues behind the Friday front likely beginning late Friday night throughout the upcoming weekend. While the coldest air appears to be off to the NE, we here in TX will be below normal and chilly continues appear to be in the works until early next week.

[djmike]

1pm and Beaumont is STILL at 39F! Been 39 for the last 6 hours...NWS LC still has us for a high of 49F! ....dont think it's gonna happen!

[srainhoutx]

38F at this hour in NW Harris County. I just don't see me making it to the mid 40's today.

[tireman4]

39F in Humble and I agree Srain, I do not see mid 40's at all.

[TexasMetBlake]

79 degrees here in Jacksonville, FL. Sigh, oh how I miss the cold already.

Btw, just quick note about those bashing Channel 2...as somebody who worked there, it is often not our decision to show or not show video. The producers choose what is aired and what is not. I've been in the weather office with Frank many times when the producers call back and say ''hey, we're gonna show this video. We need you to talk about it.'' You guys have to understand that we're trying to appeal to a broad audience (some 6.1 million people in the region). Many people are clueless about the weather and the way it works. Yet, we're all facinated by it in some fashion because it affects us all. How would you like it if you were to send in video that looked like snow (after all, it's cold, if floats like snow, looks like snow, so it must be snow) and Frank said, ''nevermind this video, some idiot out in NW Harris Co. sent this in calling it snow. Well it's not. Don't be fooled.'' We would have offended him AND God knows how many others who would have felt bad for us embarrassing the guy. So please, don't be so critical when you see things on the air. Understand there are powers that be that overrule what is believed in the weather office.

On another note, it may be mist but it may not be. Whatever was coming down was bigger than mist. While the profiles showed the upper atmosphere to be too warm, there just might have been a cold pocket aloft. Who knows. But I'm not going to be quick to debunk the snow. It certainly is interesting.

[srainhoutx]

For our neighbors in far SE TX/SW LA...

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
202 PM CST TUE DEC 6 2011

...BLUE NORTHERS STRENGTHEN TONIGHT...

.A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL TRAVEL SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE
WESTERN GULF COAST STATES THIS EVENING...EXITING THE NORTHWEST
GULF OF MEXICO BY EARLY MORNING WEDNESDAY.

COLD AIR...ORIGINATING OVER THE SNOW COVERED FIELDS OF ARKANSAS...
WILL RIDE IN ON MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS. WIND CHILL EQUIVALENT
TEMPERATURES WILL BE RUNNING IN THE MID 20S.

LAZ027>029-TXZ180-259-260-070515-
/O.NEW.KLCH.FZ.W.0024.111207T0900Z-111207T1200Z/
VERNON-RAPIDES-AVOYELLES-TYLER-NORTHERN JASPER-NORTHERN NEWTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LEESVILLE...NEW LLANO...ALEXANDRIA...
PINEVILLE...MARKSVILLE...BUNKIE...COTTONPORT...SIMMESPORT...
MANSURA...WOODVILLE...COLMESNEIL...JASPER...KIRBYVILLE...NEWTON
202 PM CST TUE DEC 6 2011

...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED A FREEZE
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY.

* TEMPERATURE...LOWER 30S. WIND CHILL EQUIVALENT TEMPERATURES WILL
BE RUNNING IN THE MID 20S.

* IMPACTS...PEOPLE SHOULD TAKE MEASURES TO PROTECT PLANTS AND PETS.

[sambucol]

Re: snow video

I watched the broadcast, too, and I'm fairly sure the newscaster said the video was shot by a Ch 2 cameraman on scene to do another story. The flurry happened, and he started filming it. I don't think it was amateur video. For what it's worth!

[biggerbyte]

Well said, Candy Cane. Those were my thoughts. It was something more than just drizzle. What it was is up for debate, but a matter of fact for those that were there. I also agree that there can be pockets that have exceptional conditions. Repeating what I said last night that none of us knew what the conditions were like over Atascosita at the time this video was taken.
Finally, I don't think any weather person will 100% correct, all of the time. But I do know that Frank is no slouch. Kudos to Channel 2 for being in the right place, at the right time, and having the guts to show it on air and calling it like they see it.
Like with everything in life, it is what it is, no matter the impossibility.

My final comments on the matter.

[srainhoutx]

For our neighbors in the Rio Grande Valley, NWS Brownsville has issued a Freeze Warning for all of their CWA except Hebbronville, Falfurrias, and Sarita where a Freeze Watch has been issued. Also Corpus Christi has issued Freeze Warnings for all their area as well.

[srainhoutx]

For our neighbors in Central Texas...

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
240 PM CST TUE DEC 6 2011

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-070300-
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-
GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-KINNEY-UVALDE-
MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-FAYETTE-MAVERICK-ZAVALA-
FRIO-ATASCOSA-WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-DE WITT-LAVACA-DIMMIT-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LLANO...BURNET...GEORGETOWN...DEL RIO...
ROCKSPRINGS...LEAKEY...KERRVILLE...BANDERA...FREDERICKSBURG...
BOERNE...BLANCO...SAN MARCOS...AUSTIN...BASTROP...GIDDINGS...
BRACKETTVILLE...UVALDE...HONDO...SAN ANTONIO...NEW BRAUNFELS...
SEGUIN...LOCKHART...LA GRANGE...EAGLE PASS...CRYSTAL CITY...
PEARSALL...PLEASANTON...FLORESVILLE...KARNES CITY...GONZALES...
CUERO...HALLETTSVILLE...CARRIZO SPRINGS
240 PM CST TUE DEC 6 2011

...HARD FREEZE FORECAST ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TONIGHT....

VERY COLD AIR FROM NORTHWEST TEXAS WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS TONIGHT AS SKIES CLEAR OUT. WELL BELOW NORMAL LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST WITH A HARD FREEZE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.

PARTS OF THE HILL COUNTRY COULD REACH FREEZING AS EARLY AS 8 PM
THIS EVENING AND REMAIN BELOW FREEZING UNTIL BETWEEN 9 AND 10 AM
WEDNESDAY. URBAN AREAS WILL REACH FREEZING TEMPERATURES BY 11 PM
AND CONTINUE AT OR BELOW FREEZING UNTIL 9 AM WEDNESDAY. LOWS IN
THE LOW TO MID 20S ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND
ADJACENT RIVER VALLEY DRAINAGES. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO NEAR 30
ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.
RESIDENTS SHOULD TAKE ACTION TO PROTECT PIPES...PLANTS AND PETS.