January Weather Discussion: Slight Chance Severe Storms

[Ptarmigan]

Code: Select all

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

GULF MOISTURE WILL SURGE INTO THE REGION TODAY AHEAD OF AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT WILL BE MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS LATE
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
AND MOVE INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS AROUND 3 AM.
THOUGH WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED...SOME OF THE
STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL.

http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwat ... %20outlook

[wxman666]

Radar looks quiet for the most part. Some storms forming to the north as of 9:14 PM CST.
I think the radar will really light up come after midnight.

I agree with you Ptarmigan. I can certainly see the moisture filtering in, but so far it looks like the cap is suppressing extensive development....for now. I think once that ULL moves into the game, it will be quite a different story. Weather radios are on with fresh batteries....SPC is pulled up and will be all night....and my phone is set to sound the EAS. Bring it!!!

[wxman666]

So Andrew....ready to pull an all nighter? No way I am going to miss this.

[Andrew]

So Andrew....ready to pull an all nighter? No way I am going to miss this.

Well I would but I have to be up at 5 to help out with the marathon tomm. Hmm I might just pull that all nighter to just sleep when I get home tomm

[wxman666]

So Andrew....ready to pull an all nighter? No way I am going to miss this.

Well I would but I have to be up at 5 to help out with the marathon tomm. Hmm I might just pull that all nighter to just sleep when I get home tomm

Ouch. That's gonna be a nasty job if those storms are still ongoing.

[Andrew]

So Andrew....ready to pull an all nighter? No way I am going to miss this.

Well I would but I have to be up at 5 to help out with the marathon tomm. Hmm I might just pull that all nighter to just sleep when I get home tomm

Ouch. That's gonna be a nasty job if those storms are still ongoing.

I know right. I have a poncho and some really crappy cloths but I am actually excited to be in the middle of it. I wonder what Hail would do to the runners.

*Knock on wood*

[wxman666]

I know right. I have a poncho and some really crappy cloths but I am actually excited to be in the middle of it. I wonder what Hail would do to the runners.

*Knock on wood*[/quote]


Haha. Knock on the head is probably more like it. From what I hear, if severe weather is ongoing when they need to start, they will take Metro buses back to pre-designated shelter areas. Sounds like the marathon officials are thinking through this pretty well.

[Andrew]

I know right. I have a poncho and some really crappy cloths but I am actually excited to be in the middle of it. I wonder what Hail would do to the runners.

*Knock on wood*

Haha. Knock on the head is probably more like it. From what I hear, if severe weather is ongoing when they need to start, they will take Metro buses back to pre-designated shelter areas. Sounds like the marathon officials are thinking through this pretty well.[/quote]


Yea my friend who is running in it keeps getting emails from them updating them about the weather and threat levels for the race.

[wxman666]

06z SPC Update: Day 1: Sunday...

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html



SPC AC 300550

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1150 PM CST SAT JAN 29 2011

VALID 301200Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER ERN TX AND ERN LA...

...SYNOPSIS...

SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NRN MEXICO AND TX WILL DEAMPLIFY AND SHEAR EWD
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TX AND THE LOWER MS VALLEY IN RESPONSE TO
STRONGER UPSTREAM VORT MAX NOW DROPPING SEWD INTO NRN CA. WEAK SFC
LOW AND DRYLINE FEATURE WILL ACCOMPANY THE PRIMARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH
THROUGH CNTRL AND ERN TX THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE A POLAR FRONT
ADVANCES SWD THROUGH NRN TX AND THE LOWER MS VALLEY.

...ERN TX THROUGH LA...

PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF AIR WITH LOW 60S DEWPOINTS IS ADVECTING NWD
THROUGH SRN AND ERN TX BENEATH PLUME OF STEEP LAPSE RATES. THE EML
THAT HAS CONTRIBUTED TO THE STEEP LAPSE RATES HAS ALSO RESULTED IN A
CAP. HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS PERSIST OVER N-CNTRL TX EARLY THIS
MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH PROGRESSIVE LEAD IMPULSE...BUT THIS
ACTIVITY REMAINS ELEVATED ABOVE CAP. FURTHER MOISTENING OF THE
BOUNDARY LAYER AND POTENTIAL FOR DEEPER VERTICAL MOTION ATTENDING
PRIMARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY EVENTUALLY WEAKEN THE CAP SUFFICIENTLY
FOR MORE ROBUST CONVECTION TO DEVELOP EARLY SUNDAY. THIS APPEARS
MOST LIKELY OVER ERN TX ALONG ERN PERIPHERY OF EML WHERE CAP SHOULD
BE WEAKER. MUCAPE FROM 500-800 J/KG...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND
SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
COAST...WILL SUPPORT A THREAT FOR MAINLY ISOLATED LARGE HAIL.

CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LOWER MS VALLEY AREA DURING THE
DAY...BUT SEVERE THREAT WILL DECREASE WITH EWD EXTENT DUE TO WEAKER
INSTABILITY. SOME POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR REDEVELOPMENT OVER ERN TX
AHEAD OF VORT MAX AND IN WAKE OF ONGOING STORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. IF THIS OCCURS A SOMEWHAT MORE ROBUST SEVERE THREAT COULD
MATERIALIZE. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE
MAIN THREATS.

..DIAL/STOPPKOTTE.. 01/30/2011

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 0615Z (12:15AM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME

[wxman666]

I will be interested to see if they delay/cancel the run tomorrow.

[Andrew]

I will be interested to see if they delay/cancel the run tomorrow.

I kinda wish they do so I can come home and go back to sleep.

[wxman666]

I will be interested to see if they delay/cancel the run tomorrow.

I kinda wish they do so I can come home and go back to sleep.

I'm sure that I'll crash in my recliner at some point tomorrow.

[Andrew]

I will be interested to see if they delay/cancel the run tomorrow.

I kinda wish they do so I can come home and go back to sleep.

I'm sure that I'll crash in my recliner at some point tomorrow.

I remember when I did that for Ike. I stayed up all night for pretty much two nights and got half way through the storm.

[wxman666]

I tried to sleep during Ike by my wx radio's siren kept going off every 3 minutes.

[wxman666]

Current observations show a very warm, muggy atmosphere. Most of our CWA is currently in the 60's with dew points in the 60's as well. That should help bust the cap (weather lingo can be so gangster, lol) when our low movies in.

[Andrew]

Current observations show a very warm, muggy atmosphere. Most of our CWA is currently in the 60's with dew points in the 60's as well. That should help bust the cap (weather lingo can be so gangster, lol) when our low movies in.

Yea the atmosphere is nice and juicy for some strong storms. Do you have the CAPE readings?

[wxman666]

Current observations show a very warm, muggy atmosphere. Most of our CWA is currently in the 60's with dew points in the 60's as well. That should help bust the cap (weather lingo can be so gangster, lol) when our low movies in.

Yea the atmosphere is nice and juicy for some strong storms. Do you have the CAPE readings?

Let me see if I can get those.

[wxman666]

Here we go.

http://w1.spc.woc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoan ... ?sector=15#

[wxman666]

If that link doesn't direct you, click on multi-perimeter fields and click on Most Unstable Cape/CIN.

[Andrew]

Here we go.

http://w1.spc.woc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoan ... ?sector=15#

Wow nice link. The CAPE looks pretty good through south Texas. I would expect things to explode pretty soon.