Wx Infinity Forums

unome wrote: ↑Wed Aug 26, 2020 9:19 am NASA SPoRT - Daytime Microphysics - just wow...

https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/b ... _drop=show

The center is clearly making good progress toward the west still in that.. see it move toward and then cross the line?

Snakeswx wrote: ↑Wed Aug 26, 2020 9:52 am

unome wrote: ↑Wed Aug 26, 2020 9:19 am NASA SPoRT - Daytime Microphysics - just wow...

https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/b ... _drop=show

The center is clearly making good progress toward the west still in that.. see it move toward and then cross the line?

yes it does look that way.

000
FXUS64 KHGX 261026
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
526 AM CDT Wed Aug 26 2020

.SHORT TERM [Today through Thursday Night]...

Hurricane Laura should move inland tonight...currently on the NHC
forecast to make landfall between Sabine Pass and Lake Calcesieu the
western periphery of the NHC cone is just east of High Island.
Based on the track this implies that CWA may have dodged a big
bullet. Will be watching the track closely for any wiggles or
wobbles today.

Today showers and thunderstorms should flow into the area from the
southeast this morning then expect a band to develop after 11 am and
rotate through the region with gusty winds and brief heavy
downpours. By late afternoon the weather should get breezy to
downright windy as fast moving Hurricane Laura continues to
intensify (to a Cat 4 ultimately) and tropical storm/hurricane
conditions spread into the coastal waters with seas building to 11-
18 feet with increasing tide levels as water piles up on the beaches
and into the bays...peaking this evening with landfall and with the
passage of the strongest winds - sustained winds of 35-45 knots with
higher gusts over Galveston Bay/Chambers/Bolivar/eastern coastal
waters. Tide levels should then drop in portions of the bays late
this evening but the northern shores of Bolivar/Galveston Island and
western portions of West bay could see a slosh of the bay as water
gets pushed back south by the increasing northerly winds and wave
action tonight. Inland areas can still expect gusty winds developing
this afternoon and then strengthening late this afternoon and
tonight as Laura makes landfall.

Will be a good idea to make sure you have prepared by getting
lightweight objects put away and out of the path of the winds. Tree
damage will be possible with falling limbs a threat tonight as
persistent winds buffet them. Shower and thunderstorm filled bands
of rain should spiral across the eastern counties tonight with the
threat of heavy downpours and gusty winds. Toward morning Thursday
Laura should be pulling away to the northeast and winds become more
westerly and northwesterly across the region and gradually coming
down. The rain threat Thursday should be lowering as well until mid
afternoon then expect a band of showers and thunderstorms to form
across the southern areas and persist into the late evening probably
sagging southeastward into the Gulf eventually. Locally heavy
rainfall will be possible with this and if following model runs
continue to ping on this scenario a flash flood watch may be needed.

On a different note the western counties should be relatively rain-
free this morning/afternoon and with the increase in low level
moisture and hot afternoon temperatures could see heat indices of
105-109 there.

The threat for tornadoes looks fairly low and focused more over the
Louisiana area at this time. 45/11/47

&&

.LONG TERM [Friday through Wednesday]...

A wet/active pattern is expected across SE TX by Fri through the
weekend in the wake of Laura. A lingering upper level shear axis
along with residual tropical moisture, daytime heating and left-
over boundaries should support mainly daytime scattered showers/
thunderstorms Fri and Sat. However, models (mostly GFS) are very
bullish with the idea of higher POPs/heavy downpours Sun. A well
defined upper low moving up from the S/SW along with progged PWs
at/around 2.6 inches look to be the main factors. Not completely
sold on this at this time, but did keep POPs in the 40-50% range
on Sun. Looking ahead, extended guidance not quite as optimistic
with that possible cold front next week. Weak upper ridging from
the west will be trying to build in this direction by early next
week...and we should revert back to our more typical summer time
pattern of warm/seasonal temperatures...a light/moderate onshore
flow and isolated activity via the seabreeze. 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 94 76 97 77 98 / 50 50 30 20 30
Houston (IAH) 92 80 96 81 94 / 50 80 40 60 50
Galveston (GLS) 92 81 92 83 93 / 60 100 40 40 50

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Hurricane Warning for the following zones: Chambers...Coastal
Galveston...Coastal Harris...Galveston Island and Bolivar
Peninsula...Inland Galveston...Northern Liberty...Polk...
Southern Liberty.

Tropical Storm Warning for the following zones: Brazoria
Islands...Coastal Brazoria...Fort Bend...Grimes...Houston...
Inland Brazoria...Inland Harris...Madison...Montgomery...
San Jacinto...Trinity...Walker...Waller.

Storm Surge Warning for the following zones: Brazoria Islands...
Chambers...Coastal Galveston...Coastal Harris...Galveston
Island and Bolivar Peninsula.

Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM CDT Thursday for the following
zones: Coastal Jackson...Coastal Matagorda...Matagorda
Islands.

GM...Hurricane Warning for the following zones: Coastal waters from
High Island to Freeport TX out 20 NM...Galveston Bay...
Waters from High Island to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.

Tropical Storm Warning for the following zones: Coastal waters
from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...
Waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20
to 60 NM.

&&

$$

Discussion...99

AtascocitaWX wrote: ↑Wed Aug 26, 2020 10:11 am

Snakeswx wrote: ↑Wed Aug 26, 2020 9:52 am

unome wrote: ↑Wed Aug 26, 2020 9:19 am NASA SPoRT - Daytime Microphysics - just wow...

https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/b ... _drop=show

The center is clearly making good progress toward the west still in that.. see it move toward and then cross the line?

yes it does look that way.

Just updated its moving NW

NUCAPS Soundings - looks like a promising addition to the tools forecasters use

https://nasasport.wordpress.com/2020/08 ... d=97732940

Approval is required for near-real-time data access https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/atmo ... gs/nucaps/

NHC track is pretty much in tact with your typical wobbles till landfall. One hell of a scary looking hurricane.

I'm going to go out on a limb and say that people across the Houston Metro area are going to be surprised by how much we end up actually getting out of this.

The turn should happen soon....

tireman4 wrote: ↑Wed Aug 26, 2020 10:35 am The turn should happen soon....

Yeah, we're running out of soon.

Laura's wind field is massive...and it's almost onshore.

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/w ... 27.25,3000

Montgomery - you're going to run out of altitude at Big Lake...

DoctorMu wrote: ↑Wed Aug 26, 2020 10:45 am

tireman4 wrote: ↑Wed Aug 26, 2020 10:35 am The turn should happen soon....

Yeah, we're running out of soon.

Laura's wind field is massive...and it's almost onshore.

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/w ... 27.25,3000

Has he landfall time frame shifted from midnight to 3am?

tireman4 wrote: ↑Wed Aug 26, 2020 10:35 am The turn should happen soon....

yea everybody is saying soon, but when? this storm is growing.

Amazing view of the eye, and that western size is exploding. Laura is so much bigger than yesterday.

RECON data suggests we may have a Cat 4 now

Wow man

https://twitter.com/JackSillin/status/1 ... 1250774016

Significant storm surge flooding already well underway in #LAwx this afternoon.

#Laura is still ~200 miles and ~14 hours away from landfall.

CoC just coming into view on HGX radar. First nasty outer rain band just off the coast.

Good breeze and sun shining with some clouds out here in Cypress. Starting to get a bit warm out, especially when the sun comes out.

Laura is now bigger than the entire state of Louisiana.

She better start moving more N very soon. These are the critical hours and each little jog more W is not cool especially as she explodes with intensity