January Weather Discussion: Slight Chance Severe Storms

[PaulEInHouston]

Hail in League City South Shore Harbour to 1/2 " or slightly better...cell just clipped us and had about 30 secs of hail...

There you have it...our freezing precip event for 2011!!

http://wx.apxsolutionsinc.com/wxradarbaseref.php

[srainhoutx]

HGX confirms those hail reports...

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
848 AM CST MON JAN 24 2011

TXZ213-237-238-241530-
BRAZORIA-GALVESTON-HARRIS-
848 AM CST MON JAN 24 2011

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

AT 848 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES WEST OF SANTA FE...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 25 MPH.

PEA TO MARBLE SIZE HAIL AND BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...SEABROOK...WEBSTER...
TEXAS CITY...TAYLOR LAKE VILLAGE...SANTA FE...NASSAU BAY...LEAGUE
CITY...LA MARQUE...HILLCREST...EL LAGO...DICKINSON AND BACLIFF.

[wxman57]

is Houston's chances for getting some wintry weather around the 1st of February getting better or worse j/w thanks

Give it another 5-6 days and we'll have a good idea about the chances. Confidence remains low regarding next week's weather here.

[tireman4]

Remember newbies, Wxman57 always ( Dan toooo) said practice patience. Especially in winter when everthing has to be "just" right for wintery precipitation.

[PaulEInHouston]

Remember newbies, Wxman57 always ( Dan toooo) said practice patience. Especially in winter when everthing has to be "just" right for wintery precipitation.

Newbie here for sure. I've got all the patience in the world. Besides, I had my frozen precip experience about 1/2 an hour ago, Judging by the radar, looks like South Houston around the loop/288 might see a few hail stones as well.

[ronyan]

Impact Weather posted an update: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=99o8HXAXndk

[tireman4]

Is it not way to early to predict this...( I am thinking February 2-4) or am I totally wrong? Oh wait, they are speaking of this week. Ok, nevermind....

[cristina99]

are we still talking about this area (Houston, Spring, etc.) for wintry weather, ice / snow (Ahh!), etc or is it the south (MS, TN, GA) that is getting it? I'd like to know so I can plan or not get so worked up about another cold / ice blast for next week. I would love to see as much winter as we can get. Although I don't understand much of what you guys write, I enjoy it still the same.

[srainhoutx]

are we still talking about this area (Houston, Spring, etc.) for wintry weather, ice / snow (Ahh!), etc or is it the south (MS, TN, GA) that is getting it? I'd like to know so I can plan or not get so worked up about another cold / ice blast for next week. I would love to see as much winter as we can get. Although I don't understand much of what you guys write, I enjoy it still the same.

It can get confusing with all that is going on. The rain we are getting today will be a snow event for the Mid South and East Coast beginning tomorrow on into late this week. What we have been discussing for our future possible weather event would be for next week, cristina99.

[southerngale]

If we step back and take a look at some of the signals that we're seeing, then it seems likely that there will be some type of significant event at the beginning of February. When I say that the pattern evolving appears similar to 1993, I don't mean that I expect another massive Gulf and east coast storm. It's possible that the pattern just leads to a major nor'easter.

What we do know is that there is some VERY cold air up in Canada now, and lots of it. With the pattern evolving, we have a very good shot at getting some quite cold Arctic air down here. Whether or not we get any frozen precip will depend on the details in the upcoming pattern - something we can't be sure of this far out.

The way I see it, there are 3 main possibilities for next week (around Feb 1-3):

1. Models are incorrect with the overall pattern and it's just more of the same (current weather). I'd say this isn't the highest probability, probably the lowest probability of the 3 options.

2. Significant dry surge of Canadian/Arctic air that may drop temps into the 20 degree range here or lower. Very hard freeze but no precip involved.

3. Moderately cold Canadian/Arctic air intrusion with secondary impulse moving through the cold air. This is what the GFS is forecasting and the Euro is hinting at around day 11-12.

I'm not ready to buy #3 just yet, but I could easily believe that we could get quite cold here in 9-10 days (#2 above). It's just so hard to get the timing and conditions here right for snow.

I'm not sure what percentages you would have given each of these on Saturday, but with a few more days of model runs, which scenario seems more likely at this stage? I realize a lot can change between now and then, though.

P.S. I want you to pick door #3

[TexasMetBlake]

12z Euro is running. It's out to 120 hours.

[srainhoutx]

Folks, after chatting with wxman57 and Andrew, we will move our discussions regarding the Arctic Air and any wintry weather issues including model discussions to the February Weather thread. Thanks...

http://forums.khou.com/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=561

[Andrew]

Some pretty good totals out there so far:

[Portastorm]

So close I can almost taste it!!

***********
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
302 PM CST MON JAN 24 2011

.DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT-WAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL AID IN ENHANCING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE OVERNIGHT. SUBTLE LIFT FROM THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ISOLATED SPRINKLES ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA. TEMPERATURES ACROSS OUR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES SUGGEST THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SNOW FLURRIES TO MIX IN WITH THE SPRINKLES.
HOWEVER...A SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
OF COOLEST TEMPERATURES AND THEREFORE THE CHANCE FOR FLURRIES IS
TOO LOW TO WARRANT EXPLICIT MENTION IN THE FORECAST PACKAGE.
(rest deleted)

[srainhoutx]

Tireman4 and Portastorm reminded me of a funny Dan story. Some will recall a couple or so years a go we had a Cold Core Upper Low traveling E along I-10. No one, I mean no one and certainly not wxman57, would forecast any chance of snow or sleet as it passed the area. If I recall, it was a week night. Dan e-mailed and stated he was heading to San Antonio after the 10PM newscast. After all he was part of the Frank/Meador team. I’ll never forget the call I got some where between 11 and midnight. I heard this voice say, It’s snowing! It’s snowing snow in Columbus! Soon after I logged into the Forum and Dan had posted a report (via his old iphone) on the board. Soon after, I recall the reports from our Central TX folks started arriving. Then shortly the Katy folks chimed in. Funny thing about us weather geeks. We enjoy those unexpected surprises. And who knows? Perhaps more are ahead...

[txflagwaver]

That sounds like Dan.."It's snowing snow". LOL

[tireman4]

Dan and his snow gun....woo hoo.....

[biggerbyte]

Dan stories. I love it. Missing him over here.

[srainhoutx]

With talk of much colder air ahead as we start February, a wet weekend looks to be in our future as we end January. Those needing to make plans regarding the Marathon and Freeze protection may need to take note...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
424 AM CST WED JAN 26 2011

.DISCUSSION...
NOT A WHOLE LOT OF ISSUES IN THE SHORT TERM PART OF THE FCST AS WE
REMAIN IN A FAIRLY QUIET PATTERN. THE NEXT COLD FRONT STILL ON TAP
TO PUSH THROUGH TONIGHT/TOMORROW WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF DRIER/
COOL AIR IN ITS WAKE. MODELS STILL POINTING TO A RATHER WET/ACTIVE
WEEKEND AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SURGES IN FROM THE GULF STARTING FRI
NIGHT/SAT AS A WELL-DEFINED UPPER LEVEL TROF/LOW DEVELOPS AND THEN
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS CLOSED LOW TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD RW
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF AND WITH ITS PASSAGE. IN THE EXTENDED
PART OF THE FCST WILL BE GOING MORE WITH ECMWF SOLUTION WHICH DOES
GO WITH VERY COLD TEMPS FOR NEXT WEEK. A STRONG ARCTIC RIDGE SINK-
ING DOWN OFF THE PLAINS SHOULD PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF CHILL.

[wxman57]

If we step back and take a look at some of the signals that we're seeing, then it seems likely that there will be some type of significant event at the beginning of February. When I say that the pattern evolving appears similar to 1993, I don't mean that I expect another massive Gulf and east coast storm. It's possible that the pattern just leads to a major nor'easter.

What we do know is that there is some VERY cold air up in Canada now, and lots of it. With the pattern evolving, we have a very good shot at getting some quite cold Arctic air down here. Whether or not we get any frozen precip will depend on the details in the upcoming pattern - something we can't be sure of this far out.

The way I see it, there are 3 main possibilities for next week (around Feb 1-3):

1. Models are incorrect with the overall pattern and it's just more of the same (current weather). I'd say this isn't the highest probability, probably the lowest probability of the 3 options.

2. Significant dry surge of Canadian/Arctic air that may drop temps into the 20 degree range here or lower. Very hard freeze but no precip involved.

3. Moderately cold Canadian/Arctic air intrusion with secondary impulse moving through the cold air. This is what the GFS is forecasting and the Euro is hinting at around day 11-12.

I'm not ready to buy #3 just yet, but I could easily believe that we could get quite cold here in 9-10 days (#2 above). It's just so hard to get the timing and conditions here right for snow.

I'm not sure what percentages you would have given each of these on Saturday, but with a few more days of model runs, which scenario seems more likely at this stage? I realize a lot can change between now and then, though.

P.S. I want you to pick door #3

See the February thread. I'm leaning toward option #2.