February 1-5, 2011 Arctic Blast/Winter Storm Discussion

[tireman4]

You spoke to Dan? But I thought Dan was.......nevermind.....

[Paul]

I am going to fill up at least 2 gas cans for the generator for this event. Mowing season coming up anyway....

Time to get Mom out of the west end..the causeway will freeze over in a heartbeat and she will be stuck for 36hrs....fun times

[cristina99]

had planned on going over to parent's house so I wouldn't be caught upstairs; but just realized to get to work Friday morning I would have to cross an overpass. So, should I go over anyway or stay home? It'd be nice to experience this event with mom and dad - to prove mom wrong. LOL

[tireman4]

Txagwxman: ( pro met on Storm2K)


Could Houston get missed? The snow that is...I hate this pesky 850 mb warm layer...

Hmmm.

I wonder what he is seeing....hummmm..the warm nose perhaps....?

[Big O]

National Weather Service out of BRO issued a Winter Storm Watch for the RGV earlier today. Now they have dropped our chance of seeing wintry precipitation from 50% to 30% and don't mention any accumulations. What am I missing?

It seems like there is a battle of sorts shaping up between the GFS, which shows most of the heavy precipitation in the RGV and Coastal Bend, and a pocket near the Houston area versus the European (and I believe other models), which has (have) most of the heaviest precipitation in SE Texas.

Is any particular model more reliable in terms of QPF than any other model?

Any thoughts on which model forecast is most likely to verify? How much am I looking at in the McAllen area?

The GFS has been giving me anywhere from 2-3 inches, while the European gave me .70". All comments are welcomed, as I am still learning.

[AggieBuckeye]

had planned on going over to parent's house so I wouldn't be caught upstairs; but just realized to get to work Friday morning I would have to cross an overpass. So, should I go over anyway or stay home? It'd be nice to experience this event with mom and dad - to prove mom wrong. LOL

Friday Morning will be terrible on the roads if this plays out like is being forecasted. It WILL be a skating rink.

[AggieBuckeye]

Txagwxman: ( pro met on Storm2K)


Could Houston get missed? The snow that is...I hate this pesky 850 mb warm layer...

Hmmm.

I wonder what he is seeing....hummmm

He's seeing what I saw too... maybe a full fledged ice storm in Houston with Snow at the tail end. It's a possibility for the majority of Houston... I still think the Northern burbs would see mostly snow, but Downtown could be a skating rink of sorts, and it mostly be sleet and freezing rain.

[tireman4]

I am thinking ( and I am a weather watcher...not a meteorologist..LOL) that me in Humble will be mostly snow.....not sure south of me....

[srainhoutx]

lol, txagwxman is just stirring the pot. Cold air is firmly entrenched which is not our normal issue regarding any wintry weather chance that always seem to be borderline. Wet bulbing will likely overcome any very thin warm layer aloft with no problem, IMO.

[tireman4]

lol, txagwxman is just stirring the pot. Cold air is firmly entrenched which is not our normal issue regarding any wintry weather chance that always seem to be borderline. Wet bulbing will likely overcome any very thin warm layer aloft with no problem, IMO.

See that is what I was thinking, but he is a pro met. Why stir it up? LOL

[AggieBuckeye]

lol, txagwxman is just stirring the pot. Cold air is firmly entrenched which is not our normal issue regarding any wintry weather chance that always seem to be borderline. Wet bulbing will likely overcome any very thin warm layer aloft with no problem, IMO.

Are you sure about that? I could see 3-5 hours of the mix kind in downtown southward. Of course, this is going off the models, and not any experience.

[tireman4]

Thursday, right..not Friday....?

[hlewis]

hello Srain, please check your PM, thanks

[SOFTBALLDAD]

Wellll i am a longtime lurker and i have learned never say never when it comes to winter weather around here. I remember a well hyped up event last year or the year before and even the morning of the event we were all so excited - then WXMAN pops in with his " Welllll the dew points are a bit higher than i would of liked to see this morning" and then poof - pearland gets dumped on for 1/2 day and everything else just petered out. Though this set up is different than we have seen in a long time so I am anxious to see how it all plays out -

[Paul]

getting really close to nowcasting.....ULL digging..now at AZ-New Mexico border....

[texoz]

Don't know if this feature from NWS has been posted, but it's a fun look at snowfall potential.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/pwpf_24hr/ ... obs_sn.php

[Paul]

Wellll i am a longtime lurker and i have learned never say never when it comes to winter weather around here. I remember a well hyped up event last year or the year before and even the morning of the event we were all so excited - then WXMAN pops in with his " Welllll the dew points are a bit higher than i would of liked to see this morning" and then poof - pearland gets dumped on for 1/2 day and everything else just petered out. Though this set up is different than we have seen in a long time so I am anxious to see how it all plays out -

The snow band did move up into Houston....just lucky down here in Pearland...I believe that was 2009...not the case this time. Column is plenty cold and so is the surface

[srainhoutx]

Welcome Softballdad. I'm interested as well. It has been many years since we've seen this type of pattern. I recall 1960 and 1973 and the pattern has some similarities regarding cold air in place and moisture coming in over that deep cold air. In January 73, it started snowing at 38F and the temps dropped from there to freezing later on that Thursday afternoon as the storm was winding down. Good luck to everyone and please stay safe!

[txsnowmaker]

I think I saw Jeff Lindner say that he might have a 4:30/5:00 pm email update--can someone post when this comes out? Thanks!

[nuby3]

some thicker clouds building in northern harris/southern montgomery