January 2025

[Ptarmigan]

From NWS Houston.
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.ph ... glossary=1

Code: Select all

To put this into a historical context, we haven`t seen a storm
quite like this impact Greater Houston in quite some time. In
fact, if we were to measure a snowfall amount more than 3 inches
in Houston, it would be the second highest snow amount ever
recorded in the city (the highest being 14 inches back in 1895,
and the second highest being 3 inches in 1960). Some area
counties may have their all-time snowfall records threatened (for
example, Fort Bend County has never recorded a snow total of more
than 4 inches).

[NWHouston]

Even the NWS is backing off on snow for spring/Tomball. Latest forcast has us down from 6 inches to 1

[suprdav2]

NWS just dropped snow accumulation in Cypress down to an inch and a half. Was 3-4 inches earlier.

[biggerbyte]

We are pretty much down to nowcasting. That is just how it is around here.

However, let me say this. If we are to put stock in a fun forecast, but then refuse to believe a negative one, then model forecasting is a complete waste of resources. We are seeing yet another trend that if it were to come to pass would be horribly disappointing.

We talked about this possibility days ago when this all first started. Everything getting pushed out by the cold air should not be a surprise. We also said the last couple of days that nothing is ever set in stone. When it gets right down to event time the bottom falls out.

Now we are going just going to need to wait and hope we don't get messed over yet again. If this event never happens, I hope we all can remember what a crock of duck was served for days. If it does, remember that duck was the smartest dish on the table.

Fork in hand.

[Stratton20]

GFS 00z 5-7 inches in houston, CMC 8-10 inches

[DoctorMu]

Y'all are going to like that GEM backside.

[biggerbyte]

Well I just checked the NWS forecast for my area. After all of this time offering up several inches of snow, it now says less than one inch. It will end up being nothing, and I know why. They also dropped the winter storm warning. Taking that into account, along with the changes in the models, I'm personally done with this. I just don't see it happening, folks. I'm sorry..

[DoctorMu]

FWIW, HGX forecasts for wintry stuff are a lot more conservative than Austin/SA. The have no problem progging an inch of two of wintry stuff.

Good discussion:

Precipitation may initially get started as soon as the latter half
of the afternoon on Monday, mainly south of the I-10 corridor. It
will initially take time to moisten the atmosphere profile, so the
early returns could be of virga evaporating prior to the ground.
Precipitation could start as a plain rain in the southern most
counties but transition towards a wintry mix as the precipitation
shield expands northward through the late afternoon. After dark as
the temperatures steadily fall, precipitation likely transitions
into primarily a wintry mix throughout the region. The axis of
precipitation Monday night into Tuesday morning will pivot east-
southeastward across the region with time as the base of the upper
level disturbance nears the region. As the trough approaches, the
atmospheric profile aloft will dynamically cool with time to where
the precipitation type, especially across the northern and eastern
half of the region, transitions to more of a snow/sleet mix. Farther
southeast towards DeWitt County, freezing rain will continue,
creating a greater icing threat in that region.

First, we`d like to note some concerns regarding snow/sleet ratios
and snow shape/types. Model soundings continue to show across our
region, a dry layer aloft across the dendrite growth zone (-12 to -
18 degrees) for majority of the event. The models show better
moisture closer to or across the dendrite growth zone farther east
and as you get into the Houston CWA. Additionally, the ice
containing clouds will all trend mainly warmer than -10 degrees C
below 700 mb and would likely result in a concentration of some
supercooled liquid (water). This may help lead to ice riming on
the snow and/or sleet pellets that fall. The coldest temperatures
aloft that the flakes form also are in the favorable zone where
snowflake type may be more in the column/needle type than
plates/dendrites. These processes and sleet mixing in could lower
snow to liquid ratios. NBM seems to support these notions and
indicate ratios generally in the 4:1 to 8:1 level over most of the
region.

Now, let`s get down to the accumulations. This forecast calls for 1
to 2 inches of snow and sleet accumulation near the I-35 corridor
and points east with slightly higher totals up to 3 inches over
portions of Lee, Fayette and Lavaca counties. As indicated on some
of the guidance, for example the ECMWF, some isolated higher totals
will be possible with any mesoscale banding of heavier
precipitation. Elsewhere, up to an inch of snow will be possible.
Regarding ice accretion, around a tenth of an inch will be possible
across our southeastern most counties around DeWitt County with a
few hundredths of an inch otherwise for locations around or just
north of the I-10 corridor. Like with snow/sleet accumulation,
isolated totals are possible if temperatures fall faster or trend
colder or where mesoscale banding of any heavier precipitation
occurs.

Travel is expected to become difficult and inadvisable, especially
across elevated bridges and overpasses, as roads become slick and
hazardous. These travel impacts and with the latest forecast
accumulation amounts in mind, we will elect to upgrade portions of
the Winter Storm Watch to a Winter Storm Warning across the I-35
corridor and points east. A Winter Weather Advisory will also be
issued to buffer the Warning across the remainder of South-Central
Texas.

[Rip76]

Y'all are going to like that GEM backside.

Killer

[DoctorMu]

Expected / Actual
Details
XML
Winter Storm Warning
1/19/2025 21:26 CST through 1/21/2025 18:00 CST

Winter Storm Warning issued January 19 at 9:26PM CST until January 21 at 6:00PM CST by NWS Houston/Galveston TX
* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow
accumulations of 3-5 inches across Metro Houston and other central
areas. Total snow accumulations of 1-3 inches for areas north of
Metro Houston and along the coast. Ice accumulations of up to one
tenth of an inch possible.

* WHERE...Portions of south central and southeast Texas.

* WHEN...From 6 PM Monday to 6 PM CST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Roads, and especially bridges and overpasses, will
likely become slick and hazardous. Plan on slippery road
conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the Tuesday
morning, Tuesday evening, and Wednesday morning commutes.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Heavy bands of snow and sleet possible late
Monday night through early Tuesday afternoon. Exact locations of
these bands are uncertain. Possible heavier bands of snow could
result in localized accumulations greater than 5 inches.
Instructions
Persons should delay all travel if possible. If travel is absolutely
necessary, drive with extreme caution and be prepared for sudden
changes in visibility. Leave plenty of room between you and the
motorist ahead of you, and allow extra time to reach your
destination. Avoid sudden braking or acceleration, and be especially
cautious on hills or when making turns. Make sure your car is
winterized and in good working order.
Sender NWS Houston/Galveston TX
Sent 1/19/2025 21:26 CST
Updates
urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.d9136fc3e3695030e1edc2788f54bcac4666ac55.001.2
Houston; Trinity; Madison; Walker; San Jacinto; Polk; Burleson; Brazos; Washington; Grimes; Montgomery; Northern Liberty; Colorado; Austin; Waller; Inland Harris; Chambers; Wharton; Fort Bend; Inland Jackson; Inland Matagorda; Inland Brazoria; Inland Galveston; Southern Liberty; Coastal Harris; Coastal Jackson; Coastal Matagorda; Coastal Brazoria; Coastal Galveston; Matagorda Islands; Brazoria Islands; Galveston Island; Bolivar Peninsula

https://x.com/NWSHouston/status/1881137442104983643

[biggerbyte]

PS..

FIRE THEM ALL.

Thank you.

[Stratton20]

Fire who?

[Tx2005]

Looks like my area in northern Harris county is forecasted to less than an inch per the NWS. I’m pretty sure we were forecasted for 2-3 inches earlier today.

[NWHouston]

Expected / Actual
Details
XML
Winter Storm Warning
1/19/2025 21:26 CST through 1/21/2025 18:00 CST

Winter Storm Warning issued January 19 at 9:26PM CST until January 21 at 6:00PM CST by NWS Houston/Galveston TX
* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow
accumulations of 3-5 inches across Metro Houston and other central
areas. Total snow accumulations of 1-3 inches for areas north of
Metro Houston and along the coast. Ice accumulations of up to one
tenth of an inch possible.

* WHERE...Portions of south central and southeast Texas.

* WHEN...From 6 PM Monday to 6 PM CST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Roads, and especially bridges and overpasses, will
likely become slick and hazardous. Plan on slippery road
conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the Tuesday
morning, Tuesday evening, and Wednesday morning commutes.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Heavy bands of snow and sleet possible late
Monday night through early Tuesday afternoon. Exact locations of
these bands are uncertain. Possible heavier bands of snow could
result in localized accumulations greater than 5 inches.
Instructions
Persons should delay all travel if possible. If travel is absolutely
necessary, drive with extreme caution and be prepared for sudden
changes in visibility. Leave plenty of room between you and the
motorist ahead of you, and allow extra time to reach your
destination. Avoid sudden braking or acceleration, and be especially
cautious on hills or when making turns. Make sure your car is
winterized and in good working order.
Sender NWS Houston/Galveston TX
Sent 1/19/2025 21:26 CST
Updates
urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.d9136fc3e3695030e1edc2788f54bcac4666ac55.001.2
Houston; Trinity; Madison; Walker; San Jacinto; Polk; Burleson; Brazos; Washington; Grimes; Montgomery; Northern Liberty; Colorado; Austin; Waller; Inland Harris; Chambers; Wharton; Fort Bend; Inland Jackson; Inland Matagorda; Inland Brazoria; Inland Galveston; Southern Liberty; Coastal Harris; Coastal Jackson; Coastal Matagorda; Coastal Brazoria; Coastal Galveston; Matagorda Islands; Brazoria Islands; Galveston Island; Bolivar Peninsula

https://x.com/NWSHouston/status/1881137442104983643

This is OLD…….

[christinac2016]

The weather channel goes down again to 41% but Apple weather still hangs on at 85%. I was gullible and believed areas north of i10 would see snow similar to 2021.

[txsnowmaker]

Expected / Actual
Details
XML
Winter Storm Warning
1/19/2025 21:26 CST through 1/21/2025 18:00 CST

Winter Storm Warning issued January 19 at 9:26PM CST until January 21 at 6:00PM CST by NWS Houston/Galveston TX
* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow
accumulations of 3-5 inches across Metro Houston and other central
areas. Total snow accumulations of 1-3 inches for areas north of
Metro Houston and along the coast. Ice accumulations of up to one
tenth of an inch possible.

* WHERE...Portions of south central and southeast Texas.

* WHEN...From 6 PM Monday to 6 PM CST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Roads, and especially bridges and overpasses, will
likely become slick and hazardous. Plan on slippery road
conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the Tuesday
morning, Tuesday evening, and Wednesday morning commutes.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Heavy bands of snow and sleet possible late
Monday night through early Tuesday afternoon. Exact locations of
these bands are uncertain. Possible heavier bands of snow could
result in localized accumulations greater than 5 inches.
Instructions
Persons should delay all travel if possible. If travel is absolutely
necessary, drive with extreme caution and be prepared for sudden
changes in visibility. Leave plenty of room between you and the
motorist ahead of you, and allow extra time to reach your
destination. Avoid sudden braking or acceleration, and be especially
cautious on hills or when making turns. Make sure your car is
winterized and in good working order.
Sender NWS Houston/Galveston TX
Sent 1/19/2025 21:26 CST
Updates
urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.d9136fc3e3695030e1edc2788f54bcac4666ac55.001.2
Houston; Trinity; Madison; Walker; San Jacinto; Polk; Burleson; Brazos; Washington; Grimes; Montgomery; Northern Liberty; Colorado; Austin; Waller; Inland Harris; Chambers; Wharton; Fort Bend; Inland Jackson; Inland Matagorda; Inland Brazoria; Inland Galveston; Southern Liberty; Coastal Harris; Coastal Jackson; Coastal Matagorda; Coastal Brazoria; Coastal Galveston; Matagorda Islands; Brazoria Islands; Galveston Island; Bolivar Peninsula

https://x.com/NWSHouston/status/1881137442104983643

This is OLD…….

You know what isn’t old? The Ch 13 weather forecast that just concluded about half an hour ago, which forecasts 3-6 inches across Houston, with locally higher amounts possible.

[Andrew]

Nothing has changed. Most of SE Texas should see 2-3 inches of snow. Heavier snow banding will be embedded in the overall plum of showers and that is where 3-6+ inches could occur. Where that sets up will be key but no one will know until it starts.

[Stratton20]

Anyone else staying up all night tomorrow just waiting for the flakes to start flying? Don’t think im getting any sleep tommorow hahaha

[TXWeatherMan]

Anyone else staying up all night tomorrow just waiting for the flakes to start flying? Don’t think im getting any sleep tommorow hahaha

100%. A tradition unlike any other haha

[ClearLake77]

NWS has Clear Lake less than 1/2 inch down from 4 inches earlier. Yikes. Teetering back and forth lol. Feel like I'm watching Beryl forecasts all over again.