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Re: August 2020: Tracking Laura
Posted: Tue Aug 25, 2020 5:51 pm
by srainhoutx
gregco31 wrote: ↑Tue Aug 25, 2020 5:48 pm
Also as a side note having the board hopping makes me miss Dan Meador
Me too. I truly miss my old friend during tropical troubles...sigh
Re: August 2020: Tracking Laura
Posted: Tue Aug 25, 2020 5:51 pm
by Cpv17
gregco31 wrote: ↑Tue Aug 25, 2020 5:42 pm
I remember being in Humble during Rita and if I remember correctly it was forecast closer to us then it "wobbled" to the east at landfall. I also just wonder if this is another day east, night west type of thing. It's been very interesting to watch to say the least.
When Rita was near the FL keys, it was actually forecasted to go towards Matagorda. That was a massive east shift.
Re: August 2020: Tracking Laura
Posted: Tue Aug 25, 2020 5:54 pm
by jabcwb2
When is the next recon?
Re: August 2020: Tracking Laura
Posted: Tue Aug 25, 2020 5:57 pm
by srainhoutx
jabcwb2 wrote: ↑Tue Aug 25, 2020 5:54 pm
When is the next recon?
NOAA RECON enroute and the High Altitude G-IV is flying now sampling over the Gulf.
Re: August 2020: Tracking Laura
Posted: Tue Aug 25, 2020 5:57 pm
by weatherguy425
Global + ensemble 12Z suite.
It’s not smart to play games with threats this big. Even subtle changes that can happen 12-18 hours from landfall can impact track. The angle of our coastline makes even small changes impactful.
Re: August 2020: Tracking Laura
Posted: Tue Aug 25, 2020 5:57 pm
by tireman4
gregco31 wrote: ↑Tue Aug 25, 2020 5:42 pm
I remember being in Humble during Rita and if I remember correctly it was forecast closer to us then it "wobbled" to the east at landfall. I also just wonder if this is another day east, night west type of thing. It's been very interesting to watch to say the least.
I was in Humble during Rita ( still am) and yes, you are correct
Re: August 2020: Tracking Laura
Posted: Tue Aug 25, 2020 5:58 pm
by MontgomeryCoWx
Cpv17 wrote: ↑Tue Aug 25, 2020 5:51 pm
gregco31 wrote: ↑Tue Aug 25, 2020 5:42 pm
I remember being in Humble during Rita and if I remember correctly it was forecast closer to us then it "wobbled" to the east at landfall. I also just wonder if this is another day east, night west type of thing. It's been very interesting to watch to say the least.
When Rita was near the FL keys, it was actually forecasted to go towards Matagorda. That was a massive east shift.
It was why so many didn’t evacuate for Ike. It’s a damned if you do, damned if you don’t situation for Hurricanes and especially Emergency Management. The average citizen doesn’t understand Tropical systems so if they order evacuations and it misses, the average person will pitch a fit.
Unfortunately, in 2020, there are a lot of people who want to lead with emotion instead of logic and common sense.
Re: August 2020: Tracking Laura
Posted: Tue Aug 25, 2020 5:59 pm
by jabcwb2
srainhoutx wrote: ↑Tue Aug 25, 2020 5:57 pm
jabcwb2 wrote: ↑Tue Aug 25, 2020 5:54 pm
When is the next recon?
NOAA RECON enroute and the High Altitude G-IV is flying now sampling over the Gulf.
Yay, thanks!!
Re: August 2020: Tracking Laura
Posted: Tue Aug 25, 2020 5:59 pm
by tireman4
srainhoutx wrote: ↑Tue Aug 25, 2020 5:51 pm
gregco31 wrote: ↑Tue Aug 25, 2020 5:48 pm
Also as a side note having the board hopping makes me miss Dan Meador
Me too. I truly miss my old friend during tropical troubles...sigh
Oh man, me too. Our teasing him about Star Trek was so cool. He would dress up as the characters...and many many more Dan Meador stories. When he got go on air, we would give him so many atta boys...we were so happy ( Dan was a behind the scenes, IT Met)....
Re: August 2020: Tracking Laura
Posted: Tue Aug 25, 2020 6:00 pm
by tireman4
MontgomeryCoWx wrote: ↑Tue Aug 25, 2020 5:58 pm
Cpv17 wrote: ↑Tue Aug 25, 2020 5:51 pm
gregco31 wrote: ↑Tue Aug 25, 2020 5:42 pm
I remember being in Humble during Rita and if I remember correctly it was forecast closer to us then it "wobbled" to the east at landfall. I also just wonder if this is another day east, night west type of thing. It's been very interesting to watch to say the least.
When Rita was near the FL keys, it was actually forecasted to go towards Matagorda. That was a massive east shift.
It was why so many didn’t evacuate for Ike. It’s a damned if you do, damned if you don’t situation for Hurricanes and especially Emergency Management. The average citizen doesn’t understand Tropical systems so if they order evacuations and it misses, the average person will pitch a fit.
Unfortunately, in 2020, there are a lot of people who want to lead with emotion instead of logic and common sense.
Remember back then..even Ike, the wild fluctuations in the track...I mean up and down the coast of Texas....models have gotten so much better now...
Re: August 2020: Tracking Laura
Posted: Tue Aug 25, 2020 6:02 pm
by MontgomeryCoWx
tireman4 wrote: ↑Tue Aug 25, 2020 6:00 pm
MontgomeryCoWx wrote: ↑Tue Aug 25, 2020 5:58 pm
Cpv17 wrote: ↑Tue Aug 25, 2020 5:51 pm
When Rita was near the FL keys, it was actually forecasted to go towards Matagorda. That was a massive east shift.
It was why so many didn’t evacuate for Ike. It’s a damned if you do, damned if you don’t situation for Hurricanes and especially Emergency Management. The average citizen doesn’t understand Tropical systems so if they order evacuations and it misses, the average person will pitch a fit.
Unfortunately, in 2020, there are a lot of people who want to lead with emotion instead of logic and common sense.
Remember back then..even Ike, the wild fluctuations in the track...I mean up and down the coast of Texas....models have gotten so much better now...
I remember the Rita fluctuations and last minute curveball more than Ike.
I felt like Ike was locked and loaded for us 24-36 hours out. Rita took a turn at the last minute
Re: August 2020: Tracking Laura
Posted: Tue Aug 25, 2020 6:03 pm
by tireman4
Also of note in this loop is the lack of significant asymmetry downshear (south) of Laura that was present over the last couple of days. Along with a more favorable upper-level pattern, this suggests that whatever shear is left is barely affecting Laura. pic.twitter.com/nOIvORnoo5
-- Tomer Burg (@burgwx) August 25, 2020
Re: August 2020: Tracking Laura
Posted: Tue Aug 25, 2020 6:04 pm
by tireman4
MontgomeryCoWx wrote: ↑Tue Aug 25, 2020 6:02 pm
tireman4 wrote: ↑Tue Aug 25, 2020 6:00 pm
MontgomeryCoWx wrote: ↑Tue Aug 25, 2020 5:58 pm
It was why so many didn’t evacuate for Ike. It’s a damned if you do, damned if you don’t situation for Hurricanes and especially Emergency Management. The average citizen doesn’t understand Tropical systems so if they order evacuations and it misses, the average person will pitch a fit.
Unfortunately, in 2020, there are a lot of people who want to lead with emotion instead of logic and common sense.
Remember back then..even Ike, the wild fluctuations in the track...I mean up and down the coast of Texas....models have gotten so much better now...
I remember the Rita fluctuations and last minute curveball more than Ike.
I felt like Ike was locked and loaded for us 24-36 hours out. Rita took a turn at the last minute
But the half week leading up to Ike...it was up and down the coast..remember..the models...
Re: August 2020: Tracking Laura
Posted: Tue Aug 25, 2020 6:07 pm
by MontgomeryCoWx
tireman4 wrote: ↑Tue Aug 25, 2020 6:04 pm
MontgomeryCoWx wrote: ↑Tue Aug 25, 2020 6:02 pm
tireman4 wrote: ↑Tue Aug 25, 2020 6:00 pm
Remember back then..even Ike, the wild fluctuations in the track...I mean up and down the coast of Texas....models have gotten so much better now...
I remember the Rita fluctuations and last minute curveball more than Ike.
I felt like Ike was locked and loaded for us 24-36 hours out. Rita took a turn at the last minute
But the half week leading up to Ike...it was up and down the coast..remember..the models...
I do remember south Texas then mid then oh heyooo
Re: August 2020: Tracking Laura
Posted: Tue Aug 25, 2020 6:12 pm
by Cpv17
MontgomeryCoWx wrote: ↑Tue Aug 25, 2020 6:02 pm
tireman4 wrote: ↑Tue Aug 25, 2020 6:00 pm
MontgomeryCoWx wrote: ↑Tue Aug 25, 2020 5:58 pm
It was why so many didn’t evacuate for Ike. It’s a damned if you do, damned if you don’t situation for Hurricanes and especially Emergency Management. The average citizen doesn’t understand Tropical systems so if they order evacuations and it misses, the average person will pitch a fit.
Unfortunately, in 2020, there are a lot of people who want to lead with emotion instead of logic and common sense.
Remember back then..even Ike, the wild fluctuations in the track...I mean up and down the coast of Texas....models have gotten so much better now...
I remember the Rita fluctuations and last minute curveball more than Ike.
I felt like Ike was locked and loaded for us 24-36 hours out. Rita took a turn at the last minute
For those that don’t remember, Rita was the 4th strongest storm in the Atlantic basin on record (895mb/180mph winds). Unreal! Weakened significantly as it neared the coast though.
Re: August 2020: Tracking Laura
Posted: Tue Aug 25, 2020 6:18 pm
by TexasBreeze
More times than not they like to turn sooner than later.
Neat to see Marco swirl on radar south of LCH moving westward. Wonder if those remnants could cause an earlier turn?
Re: August 2020: Tracking Laura
Posted: Tue Aug 25, 2020 6:32 pm
by DoctorMu
MontgomeryCoWx wrote: ↑Tue Aug 25, 2020 6:02 pm
tireman4 wrote: ↑Tue Aug 25, 2020 6:00 pm
MontgomeryCoWx wrote: ↑Tue Aug 25, 2020 5:58 pm
It was why so many didn’t evacuate for Ike. It’s a damned if you do, damned if you don’t situation for Hurricanes and especially Emergency Management. The average citizen doesn’t understand Tropical systems so if they order evacuations and it misses, the average person will pitch a fit.
Unfortunately, in 2020, there are a lot of people who want to lead with emotion instead of logic and common sense.
Remember back then..even Ike, the wild fluctuations in the track...I mean up and down the coast of Texas....models have gotten so much better now...
I remember the Rita fluctuations and last minute curveball more than Ike.
I felt like Ike was locked and loaded for us 24-36 hours out. Rita took a turn at the last minute
Exactly.
Re: August 2020: Tracking Laura
Posted: Tue Aug 25, 2020 6:40 pm
by MontgomeryCoWx
I pissed into a 35 mph breeze off the back porch of Northgate in CS to give College Station it’s trace amount of precip from Rita.
Re: August 2020: Tracking Laura
Posted: Tue Aug 25, 2020 6:40 pm
by mcheer23
Frank from Ch 2, says he’s expecting an eastward shift in the models into Louisiana due to the weaker High pressure
Re: August 2020: Tracking Laura
Posted: Tue Aug 25, 2020 6:41 pm
by tireman4
MontgomeryCoWx wrote: ↑Tue Aug 25, 2020 6:40 pm
I pissed into a 35 mph breeze off the back porch of Northgate in CS to give College Station it’s trace amount of precip from Rita.
Scandalous