November: Cool & Dry To End The Month

[unome]

http://climate.cod.edu/flanis/2km.php?l ... &region=TX I like the options below the map on this one

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/sc/flash-wv.html

[unome]

I like everything on this site http://nmq.ou.edu/

[snowman65]

Would anyone care to chime in on the possible weather for next week in central/eastern Tennessee? We are heading there to visit in laws....thanks

[srainhoutx]

Would anyone care to chime in on the possible weather for next week in central/eastern Tennessee? We are heading there to visit in laws....thanks

Right now it looks like rain chances Monday/Tuesday across E TX, AR and E TN. There may be a round of severe weather early next week similar to what we are seeing today, but that will depend in the timing of yet another upper low ejecting out of the SW. Temps should not be a problem, though. Seasonal warm days and cools nights, at least for now.

[srainhoutx]

A new Severe Thunderstorm Watch issued for Central Texas...

[srainhoutx]

SPC expands Slight Risk area a bit to our N and E. All of Central/SE TX/LA is still in the Risk area with wind and hail being the primary threat...

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0700 AM CST TUE NOV 15 2011

VALID 151300Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM S TX ENE INTO THE LWR MS
VLY...

...SYNOPSIS...
LOW AMPLITUDE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE LWR 48 THIS PERIOD
AS FLAT RIDGE PERSISTS E OF THE BAHAMAS. UPR LOW NOW APPROACHING
THE LWR RIO GRANDE VLY OF TX SHOULD DEAMPLIFY AS IT MOVES NE TO NEAR
KHOU THIS EVE. THE SYSTEM SHOULD FURTHER WEAKEN AS IT CONTINUES ENE
ACROSS LA/MS EARLY WED AND BECOMES ABSORBED WITHIN STRENGTHENING WSW
FLOW OVER THE SERN STATES.

DIFFUSE FRONT THAT HAS BECOME NEARLY STNRY FROM N TX ENE INTO KY/TN
WILL BE REINFORCED TNGT AND EARLY WED BY STRONGER FRONTAL SURGE NOW
DEVELOPING OVER THE CNTRL PLNS/UPR MS VLY. A SFC WAVE SHOULD EVOLVE
ON THE SRN FRONT OVER E TX LATER TODAY AND TNGT AS THE RIO GRANDE
UPR IMPULSE CONTINUES NEWD. THE WAVE SHOULD REACH NE LA BY THE END
OF THE PERIOD.

...S TX ENE INTO THE LWR MS VLY TODAY/TNGT...
S TX SQLN SHOULD CONTINUE GENERALLY E THROUGH LATER THIS
MORNING...WITH ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE AHEAD OF IT
OVER THE MIDDLE TX GULF CSTL PLN...AS ASCENT WITH APPROACHING UPR
IMPULSE OVERSPREADS REGION. COMBINATION OF MODERATE INSTABILITY
/SBCAPE TO 1000 J PER KG AND PW AOA 1.50 INCHES/ WITH 35-45 KT SSWLY
DEEP SHEAR MAY CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ISOLD DMGG WIND AS THE SQLN AND
ANY MORE DISCRETE STORMS AHEAD OF IT MOVE/DEVELOP E TOWARD THE
KCRP/KVCT/KHOU AREAS.

THE BELT OF STRONGEST FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH THE UPR TROUGH SHOULD
REACH THE UPR TX GULF CST AND LA BY MID/LATE AFTN. COUPLED WITH
MODEST SFC HEATING AND CONTINUED LOW LVL MOISTURE INFLOW...THIS
SHOULD FOSTER A CONTINUED RISK FOR STRONG TO SVR STORMS ENE INTO THE
SABINE RVR VLY. A SEPARATE AREA OF STORMS MAY FORM A BIT FARTHER
N...INVOF STALLED FRONT/LOW LVL BUOYANCY MAX FROM THE ARKLATEX
THROUGH CNTRL/SRN AR INTO THE LWR TN VLY. SOMEWHAT WEAKER DEEP
SHEAR OVER THE WRN HALF OF THIS CORRIDOR SHOULD LIMIT STORM
SUSTENANCE AND ORGANIZATION...ALTHOUGH ISOLD SVR ACTIVITY CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. STRONGER SHEAR...BUT MORE LIMITED DESTABILIZATION WILL
BE PRESENT OVER THE LWR TN VLY...ON ERN SIDE OF EJECTING UPR
IMPULSE. THIS ENVIRONMENT MAY YIELD A MARGINAL WIND DMG THREAT
LATER THIS AFTN THROUGH EARLY EVE.

REMNANTS OF THE SE TX SQLN MAY CONTINUE TO POSE AN ISOLD SVR THREAT
TNGT/EARLY WED AS THE STORMS CONTINUE ENE INTO ERN LA AND CNTRL/SRN
MS IN ZONE OF STRENGTHENING WAA AHEAD OF E TX SFC WAVE. ALTHOUGH
THIS MAY RESULT IN A LATE NIGHT FLARE-UP OF ACTIVITY...DEGREE OF
ASSOCIATED SVR THREAT /LOCALLY DMGG WIND AND ISOLD TORNADOES/ SHOULD
BE TEMPERED BY DIURNAL STABILIZATION.

..CORFIDI/ROGERS.. 11/15/2011

[srainhoutx]

Morning e-mail from Jeff:

Active Weather Day for much of SE, central, and coastal TX.

Newly issued Severe Thunderstorm Watch in effect until 110am for central TX

Upper level low over northern MX just south of Big Bend is moving eastward this morning with a downstream line of thunderstorms from west of San Antonio, TX to north of Cotulla, TX moving eastward at 30-40mph. 12Z soundings capping continues at Corpus Christi, but that capping greatly weakens northward along the TX coast as is evident by soundings from Lake Charles and the ongoing development of showers over the western sections of SE TX currently. Air mass over the coastal bend and central TX is moderately unstable with CAPE values of 1000-1500 J/kg. 0-6km shear of 30-40kts out of the SW is common over much of central and SE TX this morning with 0-3km Helicity values of 300-400 over the southwestern sections of SE TX roughly from Sugar Land to Victoria. Vigorous lift from the approaching upper level low will help foster downstream development of showers and thunderstorms over much of the region over the next 2-6 hours with the greatest coverage and intensity coming with the passage of a linear MCS/squall line between 1100am to 300pm across the region.

Squall line to our west will march eastward at a steady 20-40kts today and reach our western counties from College Station to Victoria around 1100am. Increasing lift ahead of this line may encourage the formation of cells ahead of the main line especially around the Matagorda Bay region. While low level profiles are not overly impressive for tornado formation the region bounded from Rockport to Victoria to Katy to Galveston appears to be in the best location of storm rotation and this area shows the greatest potential for tornadoes from discrete cells ahead of the main line or embedded supercells within the line. The rest of the region will also have the potential for a severe threat with damaging winds and large hail being the main products. Nose of a 60-80kt jet will come to bear across SE TX early this afternoon and some of this energy may be brought to the surface in the more intense thunderstorms. Line segments may bow forward resulting in damaging straight line winds of 60-70mph, but this should be in isolated locations along the line. Large hail may be slightly more common. SPC slight risk outline remains in effect for the entire region and a severe weather watch will likely be issued later this morning for the region.

Rainfall:
Approaching system of this sort tends to favor heavy rainfall with adequate moisture in place. Downstream air mass is moist with PWS of 1.6-1.8 inches in a corridor from NE TX to near Del Rio this morning. Slug of dry air over the NW Gulf of Mexico with PW of .9-1.1 inch is moving toward extreme SE TX and SW LA this morning. Moisture levels increase from around 1.0 inch over Sabine Pass area to over 1.4 inches near Columbus and additional advection of higher moisture is expected today. PW values increasing into the 1.6 range will be around 150% of normal for mid November suggesting a heavy rainfall threat. Mitigating factor to widespread heavy rainfall is the fast forward motion of the storm system and linear nature of the line of storms producing a one shot round of weather. Widespread rainfall amounts of .5-1.5 inches will be common with isolated totals of 2-3 inches under the stronger storms and where any cell training develops. Could see a period of training SW to NE moving cells from mid morning to early afternoon ahead of the main line west of I-45 where moisture is greatest. So far this morning activity in this region has remained spotty, but is showing a tendency toward building in training lien segments.

Storms system will be east of the region by late evening with a dry and warm day expected on Wednesday ahead of a cold front late Wednesday night. Front should be off the coast Thursday morning with gusty NW winds and much drier air mass. Highs on the Thursday only be in the upper 60’s under mainly sunny skies with lows in the 40’s Friday morning. Next storm system digs into the SW US early this weekend resulting in winds turning back onshore over TX and a return of the humidity by this weekend. Moisture level may be deep enough this weekend to produce a few streamer showers moving inland off the western Gulf.

Note: Rainfall deficit at Tomball for since October 2010 has now reached -40.52 inches.

[ticka1]

Does this mean the cap has weaken or broken?

[srainhoutx]

Does this mean the cap has weaken or broken?

Yeah, ticka1. It has. The soundings showed the cap was eroding W to E as the upper air disturbance moves along to the ENE. Corpus Christi was un capped and Lake Charles was eroding, so it looks like an active day for thunderstorms and severe weather potential.

[tireman4]

And humid, which will kill my paced run. Sigh. Well, we do need the rain......

[srainhoutx]

A sight for sore drought parched eyes....

[wxman666]

[b]Severe Thunderstorm Watch[/b]
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 885
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
900 AM CST TUE NOV 15 2011

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 885 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 PM CST
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

TXC001-005-015-039-041-051-071-073-089-145-157-161-167-185-199-
201-225-239-241-245-289-291-293-313-321-331-339-347-351-361-365-
373-395-401-403-405-407-419-455-457-471-473-477-481-152200-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0885.111115T1500Z-111115T2200Z/

TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ANDERSON ANGELINA AUSTIN
BRAZORIA BRAZOS BURLESON
CHAMBERS CHEROKEE COLORADO
FALLS FORT BEND FREESTONE
GALVESTON GRIMES HARDIN
HARRIS HOUSTON JACKSON
JASPER JEFFERSON LEON
LIBERTY LIMESTONE MADISON
MATAGORDA MILAM MONTGOMERY
NACOGDOCHES NEWTON ORANGE
PANOLA POLK ROBERTSON
RUSK SABINE SAN AUGUSTINE
SAN JACINTO SHELBY TRINITY
TYLER WALKER WALLER
WASHINGTON WHARTON
$$

[srainhoutx]

Good to see Canyon Lake getting some 1-2 inch per hour rainfall rates...The Hill Country Lake need all the help they can get...

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
843 AM CST TUE NOV 15 2011

TXC029-091-187-209-259-151630-
/O.NEW.KEWX.FA.Y.0026.111115T1443Z-111115T1630Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
GUADALUPE-HAYS-KENDALL-BEXAR-COMAL-
843 AM CST TUE NOV 15 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
COMAL COUNTY...
GUADALUPE COUNTY...
NORTHEASTERN BEXAR COUNTY...
SOUTH CENTRAL HAYS COUNTY...
SOUTHEASTERN KENDALL COUNTY...

* UNTIL 1030 AM CST

* AT 841 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS HAVE
DETECTED A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS
FROM TIMBERWOOD PARK TO NEW BRAUNFELS TO NEW BERLIN. DOPPLER
RADAR ESTIMATES 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR RAINFALL RATES ACROSS
THIS AREA.

* RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE MINOR FLOODING TO
OCCUR...ESPECIALLY ALONG SMALL STREAMS AND NEAR LOW WATER
CROSSINGS. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE MINOR FLOODING
INCLUDE...CANYON LAKE DAM...NEW BRAUNFELS...SEGUIN...UNIVERSAL
CITY...BERGHEIM...BULVERDE...CIBOLO...FAIR OAKS RANCH...FISCHER AND
GARDEN RIDGE.

[brazoriatx]

is it just me or does it look like our system is breaking up and looking rough ..doesnt look as impressive as it did

[srainhoutx]

is it just me or does it look like our system is breaking up and looking rough ..doesnt look as impressive as it did

Actually, cloud tops are cooling just E of San Antonio. Daytime heating should help maintain the complex and seeing storms fire just to our W from Matagorda Bay looks hopeful. S Winds have increased here in NW Harris County under partly cloudy skies, so fingers crossed the rains will continue to build E as the morning goes along...

[srainhoutx]

E-mail update from Jeff:

SPC has issued a Severe Thunderstorm Watch for all of SE TX until 400pm this afternoon.

This watch includes all counties and coastal waters in SE TX.

Strong upper level disturbance crossing the Rio Grande River leading to the development of strong to severe thunderstorms from the coastal bend of TX into central TX this morning. Downstream air mass over SE TX is becoming increasingly unstable with increasing lift from the upper low and cooling mid levels. Radar shows numerous thunderstorms starting to develop over our western counties and over the NW Gulf offshore of Rockport toward Seadrift. With additional heating over the next few hours storms will continue to intensify with the threat for wind damage and hail increasing. An isolated tornado threat will be focused around the Matagorda Bay region where parameters are greatest, but still fairly marginal. Main threats will be wind damage with gust of 50-70mph in bowing line segments and large hail.

Storms should be existing the area around 400-600pm this evening.

[redneckweather]

No, it does not look all that impressive. We will have some pop up storms out ahead of the actually line that will push through later. After that line pushes through their won't be much behind it. I'm thinking widespread 1/8th to a 1/4 inch of rain with isolated spots of 3/4's to 1 inches here and there. I don't see training being an issue at all with this one in southeast Texas.

[brazoriatx]

is everything driffting to the north? instead of moving east?

[srainhoutx]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2323
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1035 AM CST TUE NOV 15 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF SERN TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 884...885...

VALID 151635Z - 151830Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
884...885...CONTINUES.

STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE GRADUALLY THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH
THE MAIN THREAT BEING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL AND
PERHAPS A VERY BRIEF TORNADO MAY OCCUR AS WELL.

A SMALL MCS WITH TRAILING OUTFLOW CONTINUES TO SHIFT EWD ACROSS S
CNTRL INTO SERN TX...WITH A FEW CELLS FORMING ON THE LEADING EDGE OF
SOME CLOUD BREAKS WITH POCKETS OF HEATING.

SOME FURTHER DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED OVER SERN TX INTO LA
TODAY...AND MID TO UPPER LEVEL WINDS MAY INCREASE A BIT AS WELL AS A
COMPACT JET MAX EJECTS EWD. RADAR CURRENTLY SHOWS RATHER
DISORGANIZED STORM MODES ONGOING...AND THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO LOW TO
MID LEVEL VEERING/BACKING WITH HEIGHT SHOWN ON THE LDB PROFILER.
THIS PORTION OF THE HODOGRAPH MAY STRAIGHTEN OUT LATER
TODAY...ESPECIALLY IF A MESOLOW CAN FORM NEAR THE LARGER CLUSTERS OF
STORMS.

..JEWELL.. 11/15/2011


ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...

[unome]

current satellite looks impressive to me, I was having doubts last night & very early this am

if the area in the mid TX gulf moves north over Houston, it could get a little wild

loop http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanaly ... parm=cbsig