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We will be lucky to get an inch of rain if Don follows the current track.

however i still think its going to go north of where forecasted

Snowman wrote:We will be lucky to get an inch of rain if Don follows the current track.

however i still think its going to go north of where forecasted

I tend to agree...Don is a convection starved cyclone at this point...

srainhoutx wrote:

Snowman wrote:We will be lucky to get an inch of rain if Don follows the current track.

however i still think its going to go north of where forecasted

I tend to agree...Don is a convection starved cyclone at this point...

so in your opinion, there is still a possibility that it may shift East? After reading all the info this morning I just wrote this one off......

kellybell4770 wrote:

srainhoutx wrote:

Snowman wrote:We will be lucky to get an inch of rain if Don follows the current track.

however i still think its going to go north of where forecasted

I tend to agree...Don is a convection starved cyclone at this point...

so in your opinion, there is still a possibility that it may shift East? After reading all the info this morning I just wrote this one off......

I also wrote this off this morning as the track and models shifted southward overnight, BUT the slight shift (Very slight shift) northward put that tiny little spark back that the models could trend northward today. I honestley don't think it would be a Houston/Beaumont threat, but I would say that Matagorda would be the absolute farthest north it would go (if it did). Hey, IMO every little nudge northward is more of a percentage for rain in our area! I'm not even begging for the winds!

Vortex message #2...

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 28th day of the month at 14:22Z
Corrected: This observation corrected a previous observation.
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 303)
Storm Number & Year: 04L in 2011
Storm Name: Don (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 2
Observation Number: 07
A. Time of Center Fix: 28th day of the month at 13:50:10Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 23°59'N 89°55'W (23.9833N 89.9167W)
B. Center Fix Location: 414 miles (667 km) to the S (179°) from New Orleans, LA, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,442m (4,731ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 29kts (~ 33.4mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 2 nautical miles (2 statute miles) to the SSW (201°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 81° at 32kts (From the E at ~ 36.8mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 2 nautical miles (2 statute miles) to the NNW (346°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1001mb (29.56 inHg) - Extrapolated
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 18°C (64°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,523m (4,997ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 26°C (79°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,515m (4,970ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 8°C (46°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Levels (sfc and flt lvl centers are within 5nm of each other): Surface and 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1.5 nautical miles
Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 52kts (~ 59.8mph) in the east quadrant at 11:57:10Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 38kts (~ 43.7mph) in the southeast quadrant at 14:15:50Z
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: 850mb
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
EYE SONDE MEASURED 1004MB WITH 17 KTS SFC WIND
FEEDERBAND CROSSING SE OUTBOUND LEG 70 NM SE OF CTR
COR FOR MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND IN CONVECTIVE BAND

10:00 AM package finds Don a bit stronger and TS Warnings hoisted from Port Mansfield to San Luis Pass in our area...

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DON ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042011
1000 AM CDT THU JUL 28 2011

...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS THAT DON IS A LITTLE STRONGER...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.1N 90.1W
ABOUT 520 MI...840 KM ESE OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS
ABOUT 480 MI...770 KM ESE OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE TEXAS COAST FROM
PORT MANSFIELD TO SAN LUIS PASS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TEXAS COAST FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO SAN LUIS PASS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TEXAS COAST SOUTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DON WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 90.1 WEST. DON IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H. A GENERAL MOTION
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY.
ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF DON SHOULD CROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO TODAY...APPROACH THE TEXAS COAST ON FRIDAY....AND REACH THE
TEXAS COAST FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM
FROM THE CENTER. A MEXICAN AUTOMATED STATION AT ISLA PEREZ IN THE
GULF OF MEXICO RECENTLY REPORTED A WIND GUST OF 38 MPH...61 KM/H.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE EXTRAPOLATED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA BY LATE FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA BY LATE FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS
1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL...MAINLY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST
NEAR AND TO THE NORTHEAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. NEAR
THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DAMAGING
WAVES.

RAINFALL...DON IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
3 TO 5 INCHES FROM THE CENTRAL TEXAS COAST WESTWARD INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 7 INCHES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...100 PM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

Noteworthy trend regarding the track from the full package discussion...

THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 305/12. DON IS TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST
OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...AND THE
LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THIS FEATURE TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT
36-48 HR. THIS SHOULD STEER DON GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD TO WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL LANDFALL ON THE TEXAS COAST BETWEEN 36-48 HR.
WHILE THE TRACK GUIDANCE AGREES ON THIS SCENARIO...THERE HAS BEEN A
SIGNIFICANT NORTHWARD SHIFT IN THE GUIDANCE SINCE THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY...WITH THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE NOW NORTH OF
CORPUS CHRISTI. THE NEW TRACK FORECAST WILL ALSO SHIFT NORTHWARD
BUT STAYS TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER OF THE NEW GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE ECMWF AND UKMET FORECAST TRACKS ARE ON
THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE TO THE SOUTH OF THE
CURRENT FORECAST TRACK.

Thank you to everyone for all the updates. I was also one who had "wrote this storm off"

Ed,
Remember, Don will bring slugs of moisture with it. So, any rain, anywhere, can help. At least our chances go up.

Another point re: rainfall chances locally. Remember the Eastern flank seems to have the best convective activity and the stronger winds. A non vertically stacked lopsided cyclone can bring some beneficial rains well E of where the center passes.

Toast?

http://climate.cod.edu/flanis/2km.php?l ... mimages=12

Third vortex message of this mission...

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 28th day of the month at 16:15Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 303)
Storm Number & Year: 04L in 2011
Storm Name: Don (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 2
Observation Number: 11
A. Time of Center Fix: 28th day of the month at 15:48:40Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 24°15'N 90°19'W (24.25N 90.3167W)
B. Center Fix Location: 396 miles (638 km) to the S (182°) from New Orleans, LA, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,458m (4,783ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 45kts (~ 51.8mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 86 nautical miles (99 statute miles) to the NE (48°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 150° at 52kts (From the SSE at ~ 59.8mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 70 nautical miles (81 statute miles) to the NE (48°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1005mb (29.68 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 18°C (64°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,524m (5,000ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 24°C (75°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,524m (5,000ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 9°C (48°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 52kts (~ 59.8mph) in the northeast quadrant at 15:26:00Z

This system will pretty much behave like a slingshot, where moisture is concerned. Having Don make landfall south of the Galveston area, but a bit north of Corpus is actually beneficial for our rain chances. This system is small, but many would get to enjoy some rain well away from where he moves over land. A bit of info. for the newbies, and for Edward.

I noticed a strange looking sat. loop starting last night, and it appears to be continuing today. It looks like Don is decoupling. Part of the storm is moving more northerly, while the rest of it is moving more westerly.

Oh great...two storms...now that would be first...LOL...

Right.

Just wondering if it can lose all convection to the west, while basically heading NW?

If Don continues his current trajectory he should make landfall on the northern side of the cone. However it is also very possible that he starts moving more westerly as the high builds back it. In any case, i would keep nowcasting the movement of Don.

Shear ahead of Don is relaxing. Note the storms offshore of Louisiana. Those cloud tops are not moving S. That suggests the environment ahead of Don will likely improve, so I'd be cautious to totally write off Don just yet regarding development.

Wouldn't you think Don would try to move more northerly into a more moist environment?

srainhoutx wrote:Shear ahead of Don is relaxing. Note the storms offshore of Louisiana. Those cloud tops are not moving S. That suggests the environment ahead of Don will likely improve, so I'd be cautious to totally write off Don just yet regarding development.

This will be an interesting event all the way to landfall...wherever that might be...