May Weather Discussions. Drougnt Continues For Houston

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
sleetstorm
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I want rain just as much as all of you do, but what we do not want or need is a flood which could cause death and destruction. I think someone in this forum said that tropical showers and thunderstorms are typically hit & miss.
niner21
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This is out of control. It REEEEAAALLLY need to rain....

How about 1" per week for 13 weeks. Always raining on Wednesdays at 9:00 PM, ending at 12 am....
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srainhoutx
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HGX think Saturday may offer some showers/storms as the cap weakens and a bit of upper dynamics become somewhat more favorable. We will see.

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wxman57
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Ed Mahmoud wrote:The 12Z NAM has a squall line about to reach Houston about 7 pm Friday, and I'd bet money it is wrong...
GFS shows it, too - with a whopping 0.04" of rain! Got a kick out of the thread title "...Dry Weather Returns". Did it ever leave? ;-)
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srainhoutx
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Models are trending toward the right direction and who knows? Just perhaps a line of showers/storms will make it into parts of SE TX. HGX not biting yet, but is slightly raising pops for northern areas...


INCREASING GULF MOISTURE WILL STREAM INLAND AS THIS OCCURS WITH
PW VALUES APPROACHING 2" ACROSS SE TX AT TIMES. FOR THE MOST PART
THERE SHOULDN`T BE MUCH OF A FOCUS FOR RAINFALL THIS FAR SOUTH AS
MAIN DYNAMICS REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH. HOWEVER...THERE APPEARS TO
BE ONE EXCEPTION TO THIS SCENARIO WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE THE
NORTHERN 2/3 OF THE CWA A DECENT SHOT OF SHOWERS & THUNDERSTORMS.
THIS WILL COME FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECT A LINE OF
STORMS TO FIRE UPALONG THE DRYLINE WEST OF THE REGION DURING THE DAY.
SPLIT JET STRUCTURE AND ASSOCIATED DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT SHOULD AID IN THE
LINE HOLDING TOGETHER AS IT MOVES EWD TOWARD SE TX LATER FRI AFTN
AND EVENING. GFS/NAM SEEM TO BE TRENDING TOWARD THE WETTER AND
FURTHER SOUTH ECMWF SOLUTIONS - WHICH HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT. WILL
GO AHEAD AND BEGIN THE PROCESS OF RAISING POPS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.
MODELS ALL SHOW WIDESPREAD/LIKELY COVERAGE GENERALLY NORTH OF A
LIVINGSTON-COLUMBUS LINE. WON`T BE GOING THAT HIGH YET CONSIDERING
TIME PERIOD AND ALSO STILL A BIT CONCERNED ABOUT A CAP (ESP THE
FURTHER SOUTH YOU GO). SE PARTS OF THE REGION COULD VERY WELL END
UP GETTING SKUNKED AGAIN WITH THIS EVENT. OTHERWISE...ANY LINGERING
BOUNDARIES MAY BE A FOCUS FOR ISO/SCT DEVELOPMENT ON SATURDAY BUT
CAP SHOULD BE INCREASINGLY STRENGTHENING SUNDAY INTO AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
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Ptarmigan
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wxman57 wrote:
Ed Mahmoud wrote:The 12Z NAM has a squall line about to reach Houston about 7 pm Friday, and I'd bet money it is wrong...
GFS shows it, too - with a whopping 0.04" of rain! Got a kick out of the thread title "...Dry Weather Returns". Did it ever leave? ;-)
The Cockroach Ridge is at it again! Where is our RAID????????????? :evil: It should titled, "Cockroach Ridge Prevails". :lol:
unome
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hope in sight? http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=0

BUMPED UP POPS FOR THE NORTHERN THIRD OF SE TX TO 40/50 PERCENT AS THE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DEVELOPING WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR MOIST AXIS AND MOVING INTO THE AREA. PRECIP WATER WILL RANGE FROM 1.8 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA BY FRI EVENING SO THINK THERE ARE ENOUGH PARAMETERS COMING TOGETHER FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
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wxman57
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Rain chances Friday look to be to our north. Slim chances down here in Houston.
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srainhoutx
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The 12Z WRF suggests some chances locally for Friday evening...
Attachments
05182011 12Z WRF f60.gif
05182011 12Z WRF f66.gif
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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unome
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they bumped Cypress up to 30% pop for fri - mainly between 1pm & 1am Sat - as Ed might say - glass 30% full :)
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srainhoutx
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HGX seems a bit more encouraging today for areas N of I-10 regarding rain chances for Friday evening...

THE HUGE LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES WILL LIFT OUT
ACROSS THE PLAINS FRIDAY WITH A NEGATIVE TILT. THE MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS ALL SHOW A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORTWAVES TRAVERSING THE BOTTOM
SIDE OF THE TROUGH AND PASSING THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY.
ALTHOUGH THE BEST JET DYNAMICS STAY TO OUR NORTH AND WEST...THE
FLOW AT 300 MB IS FORECAST TO BECOME MORE DIFFLUENT BEGINNING
FRIDAY WITH FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT FRI NIGHT/SATURDAY.
THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES QUITE UNSTABLE FRI AFTN WITH CAPES IN
EXCESS OF 2500 J/KG AND LIS OF -8 TO -10 ACROSS THE NRN/WRN
PORTIONS OF SE TX. MOISTURE BECOMES VERY DEEP THIS PERIOD WITH PWS
RANGING FROM 1.6-1.9 INCHES. THE BIG NEGATIVE AGAINST CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT AS USUAL WILL BE CAPPING IN THE ATMOSPHERE. 850 TEMPS
WILL BE 18-20C WITH 700 MB TEMPS AROUND +10C...WITH THE WARMEST
VALUES NEAR THE COAST. WILL KEEP WITH THINKING IN PREVIOUS PACKAGE
THAT CAPPING WILL WEAKEN ENOUGH ACROSS THE NORTH TO RESULT IN
SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FRI AFTN/EVENING. THE NAM AND GFS
BOTH PING ON THE AREA BETWEEN WACO...COLLEGE STATION...AND LUFKIN
FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FRI AFTN. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A
FEW ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS IN THIS AREA. THE INCREASINGLY
DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW MAY ALLOW THE CONVECTION TO PERSIST THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FRI NIGHT AND POSSIBLY INTO SATURDAY AS
WELL...AND THE 12Z ECMWF OPTIMISTICALLY HINTS AT AN MCS OVER THE
AREA. WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS BLANKETED ACROSS THE NRN 2/3 THIS
PERIOD. THE ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME STRONGLY CAPPED AGAIN
BY SUNDAY WITH BEST MOISTURE SHIFTING NORTH OF THE AREA AS
ATMOSPHERE WARMS IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT BUILDING UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE ROCKIES.
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Ptarmigan
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Code: Select all

DISCUSSION...
THE COMBINATION OF RETURN FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION IS RESULTING IN
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER ACROSS SE TX TODAY. SFC DEWPOINTS HAVE
INCREASED TO THE MID/UPPER 60S IN MOST AREAS. THE WARM ADVECTION
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY WITH A 30-40 KT LOW LEVEL
JET HELPING TO GRADUALLY DEEPEN THE MOISTURE OVER THE AREA. A FEW
SPRINKLES OR A STRAY LIGHT SHOWER ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THU NIGHT
BUT NOT WORTH MENTIONING IN THE FORECAST. CLOUD COVER SHOULD
REMAIN FAIRLY WIDESPREAD THURSDAY WHICH WILL ACT TO KEEP A LID ON
MAX TEMPS. TONIGHT WILL BE THE LAST NIGHT WITH FAIRLY MILD
TEMPERATURE/HUMIDITY LEVELS. MINS SHOULD DROP INTO THE 60S AGAIN
TONIGHT ACROSS THE NRN/ERN ZONES. BY LATE THURSDAY SFC DEWPOINTS
WILL CLIMB TO THE LOWER/MID 70S RESULTING IN VERY MUGGY
CONDITIONS. MIN TEMPS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES
WARMER IN MOST AREAS. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN
BREEZY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

THE HUGE LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES WILL LIFT OUT
ACROSS THE PLAINS FRIDAY WITH A NEGATIVE TILT. THE MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS ALL SHOW A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORTWAVES TRAVERSING THE BOTTOM
SIDE OF THE TROUGH AND PASSING THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY.
ALTHOUGH THE BEST JET DYNAMICS STAY TO OUR NORTH AND WEST...THE
FLOW AT 300 MB IS FORECAST TO BECOME MORE DIFFLUENT BEGINNING
FRIDAY WITH FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT FRI NIGHT/SATURDAY.
THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES QUITE UNSTABLE FRI AFTN WITH CAPES IN
EXCESS OF 2500 J/KG AND LIS OF -8 TO -10 ACROSS THE NRN/WRN
PORTIONS OF SE TX. MOISTURE BECOMES VERY DEEP THIS PERIOD WITH PWS
RANGING FROM 1.6-1.9 INCHES. THE BIG NEGATIVE AGAINST CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT AS USUAL WILL BE CAPPING IN THE ATMOSPHERE. 850 TEMPS
WILL BE 18-20C WITH 700 MB TEMPS AROUND +10C...WITH THE WARMEST
VALUES NEAR THE COAST. WILL KEEP WITH THINKING IN PREVIOUS PACKAGE
THAT CAPPING WILL WEAKEN ENOUGH ACROSS THE NORTH TO RESULT IN
SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FRI AFTN/EVENING. THE NAM AND GFS
BOTH PING ON THE AREA BETWEEN WACO...COLLEGE STATION...AND LUFKIN
FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FRI AFTN. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A
FEW ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS IN THIS AREA. THE INCREASINGLY
DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW MAY ALLOW THE CONVECTION TO PERSIST THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FRI NIGHT AND POSSIBLY INTO SATURDAY AS
WELL...AND THE 12Z ECMWF OPTIMISTICALLY HINTS AT AN MCS OVER THE
AREA. WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS BLANKETED ACROSS THE NRN 2/3 THIS
PERIOD. THE ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME STRONGLY CAPPED AGAIN
BY SUNDAY WITH BEST MOISTURE SHIFTING NORTH OF THE AREA AS
ATMOSPHERE WARMS IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT BUILDING UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE ROCKIES. BREEZY...MUGGY...AND CAPPED CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH MAX TEMPS REACHING THE
LOWER 90S MOST INLAND AREAS. BOTH ECMWF AND GFS SHOW AN UPPER
TROUGH AND LATE SEASON COLD FRONT REACHING THE AREA AROUND
WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL BE OUR NEXT
OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME RAIN.
Houston NWS suggests that we may have storms on Friday night to early Saturday morning. Also, a cold front is possible next Wednesday, which could give us rain again. Let's hope for that. 8-) :twisted: ;)
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srainhoutx
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Well well, it appears the models are trending to a wetter pattern for Friday/Saturday. While the best chances will be N of I-10, any increase in rainfall chances is worth watching. Severe weather is also a concern in the upcoming pattern. Fingers Crossed!
Attachments
05192011 1 thru 3 day QPF d13_fill.gif
05192011 day2otlk_0600.gif
05192011 day3otlk_0730.gif
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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wxman57
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The 6Z GFS still only forecasts a few hundredths of an inch at IAH on Friday. 5820m height line remains north of our area. Looks like all the significant rain will be north of Houston. Could be a thunderstorm or two may survive to reach northern parts of the city, though.

By the way, our current forecast contest challenge at work (6 month contest) is to predict the maximum 1-day rainfall that will occur in May. Currently, I'm in 2nd place with a total of 2 points after 3 months. My forecast was for a maximum of 0.53" on any one day in May. Surprisingly (after April's 0.09 1-day rainfall), I picked the lowest of any of the 25-30 forecasters. So if it rains less than about 0.56" this Friday (or any other day through the 31st), I take a commanding lead in the contest with a total of 5 points (2nd place would have 3 points). So I'm a bit biased toward lower rain for the next 12 days. ;-)

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Went back to check the 00Z GFS and it forecasts even less rain than the 06Z GFS for Friday (if that's possible):
Image
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srainhoutx
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The 12Z WRF suggests an active afternoon/evening tomorrow across SE TX...
Attachments
05192011 12Z WRF f30.gif
05192011 12Z WRF f36.gif
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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wxman57
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12Z GFS still forecasts only a few hundreths of an inch at IAH Friday, though it does indicate around 1/2 inch next Wed/Thu:

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Ptarmigan
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Let's hope it does rain tomorrow. 8-)
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wxman57
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NAM sees more rain than the GFS, but not very much. About .05" in the morning and about 0.2" in the afternoon/evening. Just about 1/4" for the day:

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unome
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