February Ends Warm and Dry

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z NAM suggests a wet morning commute for Wednesday...

[srainhoutx]

The NAM also suggests some wrap around moisture, post frontal in nature for the Northern areas, as the upper air disturbance heads E.

[redneckweather]

Just checking in before I hit the road westward in about 30 minutes. I appreciate the updates y'all! I won't be back till Sunday which is when we should start to see a pretty steady warm up going into next week. This is looking that is COULD be our final big blow of cold air from the great north. With that said, it been a fun and wild ride going back to mid-January and I can't wait to do it all again next fall/winter season!

[srainhoutx]

Safe travels, redneckweather!

[wxman666]

Just checking in before I hit the road westward in about 30 minutes. I appreciate the updates y'all! I won't be back till Sunday which is when we should start to see a pretty steady warm up going into next week. This is looking that is COULD be our final big blow of cold air from the great north. With that said, it been a fun and wild ride going back to mid-January and I can't wait to do it all again next fall/winter season!

Hope your trip goes well...take a NOAA Wx Radio with you!

[wxman666]

Srain...based on the latest model guidance, what does the surface temp look like after the front blows through tomorrow afternoon?

[srainhoutx]

Srain...based on the latest model guidance, what does the surface temp look like after the front blows through tomorrow afternoon?

Let's see what all the data suggests from the 12Z runs before we speculate too much. That said, I suspect temps will fall quickly into the 30's behind the front. I also would not be surprised to see some near 20 degree readings in the colder spots Thursday night/Friday morning.

[srainhoutx]

Just another lovely day in Dalhart in the Panhandle. 13F with gusting N winds to 40 mph and light snow.

[srainhoutx]

10F in Dalhart, TX with -SN. N winds 43 mph gusting to 55 mph...

ob KDHT 081524Z AUTO 36037G48KT 1 1/2SM -SN OVC016 M12/M16 A3002 RMK AO2 PK WND 36048/1524 UPB06E14SNE06B14 P0000

[srainhoutx]

Our friends at Impact Weather have updated their video...

http://www.youtube.com/impactweather

[wxman57]

Here's a meteogram from the 12Z NAM. Frontal passage shortly before noon with the temperature falling into the mid 30s by 3pm. Precip ends just after noon with the temperature in the upper 30s to 40. Mid 20s for Thursday morning.

Looking at temps to our north, we could get a bit colder than guidance, as was the case with the last event.

[srainhoutx]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0095
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1011 AM CST TUE FEB 08 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND WRN KS...SE CO...NE NM...OK
PANHANDLE...NW TX PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW

VALID 081611Z - 082215Z

HEAVY SNOW WITH HOURLY RATES OF 1 INCH PER HOUR WITH LOCALLY UP TO 2
INCHES PER HOUR WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CNTRL AND SRN
KS. FURTHER WEST...SNOWFALL RATES SHOULD INCREASE ACROSS NE NM...THE
NW TX PANHANDLE AND THE OK PANHANDLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH 1 INCH
PER HOUR RATES LIKELY ESPECIALLY TOWARD EARLY EVENING.

A BAND OF HEAVY SNOWFALL IS CURRENTLY ONGOING FROM NEAR GOODLAND AND
DODGE CITY KANSAS EWD TO SALINA AND WICHITA KS LOCATED ALONG A ZONE
OF STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT. THIS SLAB OF ASCENT IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN IN PLACE AND SAG SLOWLY SWD THIS AFTERNOON INCREASING
SNOWFALL RATES ACROSS SRN KS NEAR THE OK STATE-LINE. IN ADDITION TO
THE HEAVY SNOW...SFC TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND SFC WINDS FROM
THE NORTHEAST AT 20 TO 30 MPH WILL CREATE WIND CHILLS IN THE -20 TO
-30 F RANGE.

FURTHER TO THE WEST... A BAND OF HEAVY SNOW EXISTS FROM NEAR
TRINIDAD EWD TO NEAR LAMAR CO. THIS BAND IS BEING SUPPORTED BY
STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A VORTICITY MAX IN SE CO.
THIS VORTICITY MAX WILL MOVE EWD THIS AFTERNOON AS VERY COLD AIR
ADVECTS SWD INTO THE TX PANHANDLE. LIFT WITH THIS FEATURE SHOULD
RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF HEAVY SNOW ACROSS NE NM...THE NW TX
PANHANDLE AND THE OK PANHANDLE WITH THE START TIME ESTIMATED IN THE
19Z TO 22Z TIMEFRAME.

..BROYLES.. 02/08/2011


ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...
ABQ...

[wxman57]

12Z GFS isn't much different from the NAM. Front arrives by noon and precip ends shortly after with our temp in the mid to upper 30s at the time the precip ends. Temperature near freezing by sunset and upper 20s Thursday morning. I suspect we could see a bit colder on Thursday morning, though.

[hlewis]

so i take it that this is a no snow event for us? again?

[tireman4]

The 850 MB temperature is still too high for snow.....

[hlewis]

well, i believe that if the last "snow event" was a bust, then this forecast could be busted too and we could end up with 2004 snow! one can only hope!

[wxman57]

well, i believe that if the last "snow event" was a bust, then this forecast could be busted too and we could end up with 2004 snow! one can only hope!

Ha! Don't hold your breath on this one. You'll get cold rain and you'll like it!

With any luck this will be the last Texas winter event for the season.

[BiggieSmalls]

well, i believe that if the last "snow event" was a bust, then this forecast could be busted too and we could end up with 2004 snow! one can only hope!

Ha! Don't hold your breath on this one. You'll get cold rain and you'll like it!

With any luck this will be the last Texas winter event for the season.

Do you agree with the 2-4 inches of snow predictions for Dallas? That is what is being forecast on TV....

[hlewis]

well, i believe that if the last "snow event" was a bust, then this forecast could be busted too and we could end up with 2004 snow! one can only hope!

Ha! Don't hold your breath on this one. You'll get cold rain and you'll like it!

With any luck this will be the last Texas winter event for the season.

Thanks, now that you said that it's for sure to snow 8 inches =) lol brrr cold rain!!!!

[wxman57]

Do you agree with the 2-4 inches of snow predictions for Dallas? That is what is being forecast on TV....

Seems reasonable. May be closer to 2 inches than 4.