February 2022

[Stormlover2020]

Ukmet is showing it also

[sambucol]

2 questions I have are regarding SETX, near Houston, how low will our temps go and how long will we be below or at freezing?

[don]

Right now looks like mid 20s is a possibility in metro Houston, im not sure yet how long we will stay below freezing though, i would expect at least 1 Hard freeze.

[sambucol]

Thanks, Don. That info helps me with deciding what proper preparations I need to complete.

[Kingwood36]

Would that "potential" sleet/snow over the weekend reach the coast as well?

[Stratton20]

Kingwood36 possibly it could

[DoctorMu]

Kingwood36 possibly it could

I'm a little surprised to see NOAA lean this way this early in the forecast...

Thursday: A chance of rain showers, freezing rain, and sleet before noon. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 33. Breezy. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Thursday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 19. Blustery.

BTHO Warm Nose

[don]

Could easily be freezing drizzle though.The cold air will be in place the moisture is the question.If the cutoff low ejects over the area like the EURO shows then we would have a better chance of sleet/snow due to the cold core.Not too concerned about it yet though until theirs stronger support.

[Stratton20]

DoctorMu that definitely surprises me, but hey their are always surprises with these winter storms

[Kingwood36]

12z

[Stratton20]

FWIW their are some 12z EPS members that do show some snow in SE Texas on saturday/sunday

[don]

From HGX afternoon discussion.

Global models have continued their persistence of wintry
precipitation at the tail end of the moisture on Thursday morning.
Before everyone gets too excited, this is most likely to impact
areas north of a line from Brenham to Huntsville to Groveton.
Thermal profiles continue to support a mix of freezing rain and
sleet with an elevated warm layer with a ~7,000 feet depth and a
surface cold layer steadily increasing in depth through the
morning hours as temperatures drop behind the front. It`s too
early to get nit picky about exact layer depths (other than the
warm layer, that one`s solid), but towards the end of the
moisture availability, the cold surface layer looks to be around
1,500 feet which would definitely support sleet for far northern
locations. 850mb-700mb thickness also supports sleet and freezing
rain as well with the GFS and Euro in consensus on a layer
thickness between 1570 to 1590 meters. Moisture tapers off going
into the afternoon hours on Thursday leading us to focus on the
frigid air that we`ll experience through the weekend.

Let me preface this by saying that this is NOT going to be a repeat
of February 2021. Temperatures on Thursday night will drop into hard
freeze territory for northern and western locations as lows range
from the low 20s (maybe a few upper teens) up north to the mid to
upper 20s down south. Even coastal locations will reach freezing!
Moderate northerly winds persist overnight, so as you can
imagine...it`s going to feel even colder. Wind chill values on
Friday morning are likely to range from the single digits north of I-
10 and west of I-45 to the teens for all other areas in Southeast
Texas. Temperatures on Friday will "warm up" into the upper 30s/low
40s followed by another night of freezing temperatures. Expecting
lows to be similar to Thursday night`s, but a couple of degrees
higher (would`ve felt silly to say warmer there). Fortunately,
winds will be lighter so wind chill values will be slightly higher
with teens and 20s.

Temperatures get a bit of a boost going into the weekend with highs
in the 50s by Sunday. The interesting part of this is that we`ll
still have southwesterly flow aloft...which means we`ll STILL be in
position for additional bouts of PVA over the weekend as another
shortwave trough swings in from the Rockies. The question is will
there be any moisture to lift? GFS says yes, Euro says maybe, and
Canadian says nah. Given the uncertainty, I kept PoPs on the slim
side. One thing that is for certain though is that cold air will
persist through the weekend as we`ll likely see temperatures dip
into the 20s/30s through Sunday night/Monday morning. If it`s any
consolation, we`ll have plenty of sunshine over the weekend! Small
victories?

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.ph ... glossary=1

[Stratton20]

NWS has a 40% chance of sleet/freezing rain in my area thursday night, interesting

[Kingwood36]

NWS has a 40% chance of sleet/freezing rain in my area thursday night, interesting

Imagine that..if you get it I don't want to hear another damn peep out of you! This will be you're 2nd opportunity lol

[Stratton20]

Kingwood36 hey you potentially could have a chance to see something late this weekend

[Stratton20]

Wow the 18z GFS is super interesting, keeps us with below normal temps throughout the entirety of its model run while keeping the STJ active with numerous disturbances/ systems passing overhead

[djmike]

Annnnnnd Beaumont, nothing but cold rain if that. Lol. Figures.

[DoctorMu]

Highway 1*5

Classic!

From HGX afternoon discussion.

Global models have continued their persistence of wintry
precipitation at the tail end of the moisture on Thursday morning.
Before everyone gets too excited, this is most likely to impact
areas north of a line from Brenham to Huntsville to Groveton.
Thermal profiles continue to support a mix of freezing rain and
sleet with an elevated warm layer with a ~7,000 feet depth and a
surface cold layer steadily increasing in depth through the
morning hours as temperatures drop behind the front. It`s too
early to get nit picky about exact layer depths (other than the
warm layer, that one`s solid), but towards the end of the
moisture availability, the cold surface layer looks to be around
1,500 feet which would definitely support sleet for far northern
locations. 850mb-700mb thickness also supports sleet and freezing
rain as well with the GFS and Euro in consensus on a layer
thickness between 1570 to 1590 meters. Moisture tapers off going
into the afternoon hours on Thursday leading us to focus on the
frigid air that we`ll experience through the weekend.

Let me preface this by saying that this is NOT going to be a repeat
of February 2021. Temperatures on Thursday night will drop into hard
freeze territory for northern and western locations as lows range
from the low 20s (maybe a few upper teens) up north to the mid to
upper 20s down south. Even coastal locations will reach freezing!
Moderate northerly winds persist overnight, so as you can
imagine...it`s going to feel even colder. Wind chill values on
Friday morning are likely to range from the single digits north of I-
10 and west of I-45 to the teens for all other areas in Southeast
Texas. Temperatures on Friday will "warm up" into the upper 30s/low
40s followed by another night of freezing temperatures. Expecting
lows to be similar to Thursday night`s, but a couple of degrees
higher (would`ve felt silly to say warmer there). Fortunately,
winds will be lighter so wind chill values will be slightly higher
with teens and 20s.

Temperatures get a bit of a boost going into the weekend with highs
in the 50s by Sunday. The interesting part of this is that we`ll
still have southwesterly flow aloft...which means we`ll STILL be in
position for additional bouts of PVA over the weekend as another
shortwave trough swings in from the Rockies. The question is will
there be any moisture to lift? GFS says yes, Euro says maybe, and
Canadian says nah. Given the uncertainty, I kept PoPs on the slim
side. One thing that is for certain though is that cold air will
persist through the weekend as we`ll likely see temperatures dip
into the 20s/30s through Sunday night/Monday morning. If it`s any
consolation, we`ll have plenty of sunshine over the weekend! Small
victories?

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.ph ... glossary=1

[DoctorMu]

Wow the 18z GFS is super interesting, keeps us with below normal temps throughout the entirety of its model run while keeping the STJ active with numerous disturbances/ systems passing overhead

Saturday is now becoming more and more interesting as well.

[Stratton20]

DoctorMu what are you seeing on saturday? Just checked the GFS run and its dry on saturday