Wx Infinity Forums

biggerbyte wrote:It does "appear" to be moving wnw at this time. However, that was not the case earlier. It is strange how we went through the exact same movement with Alex. He was headed in a more northerly direction for a time before moving wnw again. Mexico is acting like a magnet this year.

Ed Mahmoud wrote:AL 96 has been promoted...

Ptarmigan wrote:

Ed Mahmoud wrote:AL 96 has been promoted...

I see we have a new tropical depression.

Ed Mahmoud wrote:

Scott747 wrote:Surprised they upgraded it given the poor presentation over the last few hours.

Stewart should explain fully in the disco why.

There is a NOAA WP-3D flying a research mission. Sending back HDOBs, no Vortex Message.

Hardcoreweather wrote:11pm cone for naked swirl #2 that should have never been upgraded

000
WTNT42 KNHC 080314
TCDAT2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022010
1000 PM CDT WED JUL 07 2010

DATA FROM SATELLITES...NOAA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT...AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO HAS ACQUIRED ENOUGH ORGANIZATION TO BE
CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. ALTHOUGH INNER-CORE CONVECTION
HAS WANED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...OUTER CONVECTIVE BANDING TO THE
EAST OF THE CENTER HAS BEEN INCREASING. DROPSONDE DATA FROM TWO
NOAA AIRCRAFT ON A RESEARCH MISSION IN AND AROUND THE DEPRESSION
INDICATE SURFACE WINDS NEAR 30 KT IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE...AND
THIS WAS USED AS THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS AN UNCERTAIN 310/10 DUE TO THE LOW-LEVEL
CENTER REFORMING WITHIN THE EARLIER CENTRAL CONVECTION. ALTHOUGH
THERE MAY BE SOME ERRATIC MOTION AS A RESULT OF POSSIBLE FURTHER
REFORMATION OF THE SYSTEM CENTER...THE GENERAL MOTION SHOULD BE
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO...FOLLOWED BY A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST. ALL OF THE AVAILABLE MODEL
GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT ON A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
STEADILY SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE EASTERN U.S. INTO THE EASTERN AND
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WHICH SHOULD ACT
TO STEER THE CYCLONE TOWARD THE TEXAS-MEXICO BORDER AREA. THE
FORECAST TRACK IS DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE TIGHTLY PACKED MODEL
GUIDANCE SUITE.

WATER TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE DEPRESSION ARE ABOVE 28C AND THE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS RELATIVELY LOW...SO THE DEPRESSION HAS ABOUT
24 HOURS OR SO OF FAVORABLE CONDITIONS BEFORE LANDFALL OCCURS. AS A
RESULT...SLOW INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED UP UNTIL THAT TIME. THE
SHIPS MODEL BRINGS THE INTENSITY UP TO 46 KT BY LANDFALL...BUT DUE
TO THE LARGE SIZE OF THIS SYSTEM...A SLOWER INTENSIFICATION RATE
SIMILAR TO THE LGEM MODEL IS EXPECTED.

THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY RAINFALL
OCCURRING ON TOP OF ALREADY SATURATED GROUND AND RAIN-SWOLLEN
CREEKS AND RIVERS...WHICH WILL ONLY ADD TO FLOOD CONDITIONS ALREADY
BEING EXPERIENCED ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN TEXAS AND
NORTHEASTERN MEXICO CAUSED BY FORMER HURRICANE ALEX.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 08/0300Z 23.9N 93.9W 30 KT
12HR VT 08/1200Z 25.0N 95.5W 35 KT
24HR VT 09/0000Z 26.0N 97.6W 40 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 09/1200Z 26.7N 100.0W 20 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND
48HR VT 10/0000Z...DISSIPATED INLAND

$$
FORECASTER STEWART/CANGIALOSI

Scott747 wrote:

Hardcoreweather wrote:11pm cone for naked swirl #2 that should have never been upgraded

Recon data usually seals the deal.