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I continue to see changes in the Hemispheric Pattern as we head toward late July into August. The Afternoon Update CPC Day 8-14 Outlook suggest a very deep longwave trough becoming established East of the Rockies with temperatures cooling and rain chances increase. It is also noteworthy that a very impressive wet phase of the MJO suggesting rising air allowing thunderstorms to develop across the Eastern Pacific and Western Atlantic Basin in conjunction with the strongest Convectively Couple Kelvin Wave we've seen so far this year arrives as July end and August begins.

After a mix of weather doldrums and some rainy periods in early July, the pattern ahead suggest a much more active period may well be lurking. Water temperatures in the Gulf are very warm and can easily support tropical troubles, if they form. It's time to turn our attention toward the Gulf and Western Caribbean as well as for any Mesoscale Convective System that splash into the Gulf from the mainland and fester as Alicia did some 35 years ago. #ItOnlyTakesOne

One more day of this Heat Wave then changes begin to take shape as the pesky Heat Ridge shifts West and a shortwave and an associated cool front drop out of the ArkLaTex on Tuesday setting the stage for a slight chance of showers/storms as the front actually pushes through.

A bit of Saharan Dust may inhibit chances Wednesday, but temperature will drop into the low to mid 90's with a chance of seabreeze/bay breeze showers/storms to end the work week.

Both the GFS and ECMWF suites of guidance suggest a deep longwave trough begin to take shape next week possibly bringing additional and possibly increasing rainfall chances as we near the end of July. Climatology suggest this may be the last of the extreme Heat for the summer season as we begin that slow but steady march toward Fall.

Another very hot day across much of TX with Heat Advisories in effect for all of SE TX. Slightly cooler temps and a slight chance of thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon thanks to a weak backdoor cool front that will be dissipating as it drift across the area.

Not sure how 'optimistic' my Accurite weather station is, but on Saturday afternoon, I saw a 101-degree ambient temp, and a 112-degree head index!!

It was hot out there, but I'm not sure it felt like 112-degree hot.

I have the AcuRite 01024M and mine hit 100 in Richmond around 4PM yesterday and the Heat Index was 107 at that time. It was hot, but there was a little bit of a breeze so that was a plus.

Here is a question for the pro mets...what is the convective temperature when it is so hot? I am assuming around 105-107, right? There is SOME moisture...just a curious question

000
FXUS64 KHGX 231524
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1024 AM CDT Mon Jul 23 2018

.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...

At 15Z temperatures have reached the mid/upper 80s making it feel
like mid 95s with humidity. Surface analysis has slow moving
frontal boundary over N Texas and N Louisiana. SW winds in the
boundary layer over the region will allow for another hot day
today. Upper air analysis shows northerly flow aloft with an
amplified pattern. Upper level ridge has moved back to the west
over the southern Rockies with a broad trough east of the
Mississippi River. Here are a few near term forecast notes:

- Cloud cover may impact high temps today and max heat index which
people should not mind so much. Do not have enough confidence to
lower high temps for today based on cloud cover.
- What AMDAR soundings I could find with moisture profiles showed
quite a bit of dry air above 950mb which should easily mix.
Sounds are drier than most model soundings so I did try to mix
out some of the moisture in the afternoon with slightly lower
dewpoints. This still only made minimal impact on heat index
values. Still think mixing will be stronger than models think.
- Frontal boundary coming into the area tonight/tomorrow could
impact decision for heat advisory tomorrow.

Overpeck

Just got back from spending two weeks in Florida. This Texas heat with no rain is just miserable.

This Texas heat WITH rain is worse!!

The Heat Advisory will not be reissued tomorrow across SE Texas as a weak cool front moves in to our Region and may bring a slight chance of showers/storms with it as it washes out tomorrow in Wednesday.
The pesky Heat Ridge that has plagued Texas will move West and put us in a generally Northerly flow aloft throughout the work week into the coming weekend. A stronger shortwave with another cool front possibly somewhat strong for this time of year arrives Sunday and may usher in slightly better chances of some much need rainfall. Sometimes we have to monitor MCS thunderstorm complexes dropping into our Region from the N in such a pattern. There is a thunderstorm complex out over the Central Gulf S of New Orleans that fired up today. Any thunderstorm complexes to strengthen and maintain over the very warm Gulf waters always need to be monitored for any unexpected tropical mischief that may attempt to spin up close to home.

A general trough pattern East of the Rockies to the East Coast looks to extend into the early day of August with a chance for some isolated to scattered shower/storm chances throughout the rest of July into early August.

This is promising.

Yep, I am ready for some slightly cooler weather. The altocumulus moving across the yard this evening was a reminder of Winter.

A slightly cooler day across SE TX with some isolated showers possible SW of Houston metro this afternoon. More sun and upper 90s Wednesday through Friday.

For the first time in awhile, HGX radar has some activity on it. I noticed College Station picked up 0.03 inches of rain earlier this morning. Perhaps a harbinger of things to come with our Northerly flow? Time will tell.

I hope so. Everything so far looks like it's sliding off to the east of us.

It's a brisk 86-degrees here in northern Brazoria County this morning at 1100. Brrrrrrrrrrrrr!!!

Clouds and some haze, but so far, no rain.

Doesn't feel like a rainy day at all. Not as hot, but humidity is making up for it.