December 2016- End Of Year Forecast

[MontgomeryCoWx]

What is a McFarland?

In lay terms... a weather pattern that is known for bringing sub freezing temps to deep South Texas and frigid air to the rest of Texas.

It's a backwards 'S' pattern on the 500 mb.

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 091728
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1128 AM CST Fri Dec 9 2016

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected through the period with moderate NE
winds gradually swinging around to ESE/SE by tomorrow afternoon.
11

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1057 AM CST Fri Dec 9 2016/

UPDATE...
Observations show temperatures rebounding back into the low 40s
for much of the area. Temperatures should top out in the upper 40s
this afternoon with NE winds and some cloud cover moving over the
region. Cloud cover cleared in a few spots this morning so
northern portions of the area did observe a freeze. Cloud cover
will be the trick again for low temperatures Saturday morning. We
will look at the potential for another freeze warning for Liberty,
Montgomery, San Jacinto, Polk counties since temps could drop
below freezing tonight but may not have this morning. Otherwise
only changes to the forecast were to keep up with temperature
trends since the forecast look on track.

39

[srainhoutx]

The afternoon updated Climate Prediction Center Day 6 to 10 temperature and precipitation Outlook suggests much below normal temperatures are expected across much of the United States. The Day 8+ Analogs are posted as well.

[DoctorMu]

This would be an interesting Christmas, don't you think?

http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?pr ... hive=false

[unome]

even Conroe above freezing at 5 AM

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/zoa/temperature ... sa&limit=1
http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/zoa/temperature.php?map=zhu
http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/zoa/mwmap2.php?map=houston

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
434 AM CST Sat Dec 10 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Surface high pressure was located over the Ohio River valley this morning. The high continues to ridge into SE TX but will begin to lose it's influence as it moves east. NE winds will become east and eventually SE as the surface high shifts east and low pressure develops over the western high plains. Today will start on the cold side once again but weak warm air advection should allow for slightly warmer temperatures this afternoon. Clouds are expected to thicken and overspread most of the region by this afternoon. Moisture levels increase tonight through SUnday night and fcst soundings saturate from the surface to around 850 mb. Should start to get some showers in the warm air advection regime coupled with a very weak upper level disturbance tonight into Sunday. Will maintain the chance PoPs currently in the forecast. Temperatures will likely remain steady or slowly warm tonight into Sunday morning. A weak cool front will approach SE TX Sunday night and this feature will serve as focus for additional showers. The front will stall near the coast Monday afternoon focusing the higher rain chances mainly in the coastal counties. The Monday front will will begin to retreat slowly north on Tuesday and act a bit like a warm front. Moisture levels increase as does warming at 850 mb. This produces a bit of a cap over most of the region. That said, fcst soundings show a saturated layer extending up to 850 mb and PW values near 1.30 inches. GFS soundings show the cap eroding in the late afternoon. Not sure this will occur as expected cloud cover should limit heating which should allow the cap to hold. Will continue to carry lowish PoPs for Tuesday for weak WAA showers.

A variety of differing model solutions to choose from for the middle and latter half of next week. Increased warming at 850 mb would suggest some warming near the sfc and went slight above blended guidance on Tues/Wed with max temps possibly warming into the mid 70's central and southern zones. A weak cold front will move across SE TX Weds night and colder temps will filter into SE TX for Thursday. GFS hinting at weak isentropic upglide and some light rain while the ECMWF is drier. The upper pattern is not showing much amplification so feel isentropic upglide will be too weak to generate much in the way of precip. Will maintain the 20 PoPs currently in the grids.

Models having a very difficult time with the timing and intensity of the next cold front. Both the ECMWF and GFS are trending significantly warmer for the end of the week into next weekend. Ensemble guidance shows a temperature range between 75 and 55 degrees for high temperatures. Wanted to go with the warmer temperatures as the pattern just doesn't look favorable for a big push of colder air. Started to trend the temps warmer but am a little nervous to go too warm only to have the models flip back to a strong front. Basically, just split the differences and took the avg ensemble temperature value for Fri/SAT. A lot of uncertainty toward next weekend with regard to rain chances and temperatures.
43

&&

.MARINE...
The moderate easterly winds were slowly diminishing. Caution conditions due to winds and seas over the 20 to 60 nm Gulf waters will subside below criteria by mid morning. The reprise will be short lived as moderate onshore winds will develop by late this evening with caution conditions returning over the offshore waters. These will persist through Sunday.

The approach of a weak front on Monday should lead to lowering winds and seas over the Gulf waters. A stronger front is expected to move off the coast sometime Wednesday night or early Thursday morning.

40

from the Hazardous Weather Outlook

517 AM CST SAT DEC 10 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

LOW TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS MORNING MAY BRIEFLY REACH 32 DEGREES IN A FEW LOCATIONS... MAINLY NORTHEAST OF A MADISONVILLE TO CONROE TO CLEVELAND LINE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN... SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

[srainhoutx]

The overnight 00Z GFS and GFS Parallel guidance is suggesting a significant winter storm crossing the Central and Southern Plains with a lot of snow and possibly sleet/freezing rain extending across the Red River into Northern and NE Texas next weekend. Should this storm system verify, there would be a lot of snow on the ground to our North meaning less in the way of airmass modification as we head toward the week before Christmas.

[redneckweather]

Well, this arctic front didn't even give us freezing temps. I've already hit 29 at my house without an Arctic front. If the clouds would of cleared out then I might have hit freezing. Pretty much just a good cold front for this time of the year...really nothing out of the ordinary.

Models now seem to be backing off of a strong arctic front late next week....just your average cold front for this time of year.

Also, I hope no one is getting their hopes up for possibly seeing wintry weather around our parts around Christmas. That is an EXTREMELY rare occurrence for us here in Southeast Texas. In fact, I haven't seen any form of accumulation in my area since January of 1997 (freezing rain and sleet). Also, I have never seen any wintry weather on Christmas in my 41 years of living in Southeast Texas. I know some of y'all got lucky back in 2004 but that was a 100 year event in my opinion and I didn't see a flake out of that. And I'm not trying to be a humbug, just a quick reality check. lol

[MontgomeryCoWx]

I saw accumulation in 2011 and 2013 although it wasn't much.

I'd wait until Monday before we make any declarations about not having a strong front this week. I simply do t believe the last two GFS runs given the gradient. Now it may moderate after 48 hours before the next one comes down but I don't buy "just 40s and 50s"

[Ptarmigan]

The afternoon updated Climate Prediction Center Day 6 to 10 temperature and precipitation Outlook suggests much below normal temperatures are expected across much of the United States. The Day 8+ Analogs are posted as well.

I see some interest analogs, which are 1972 and 1990. There was a cold blast one year after the December 1989 cold blast in December 1990.

[Ptarmigan]

Well, this arctic front didn't even give us freezing temps. I've already hit 29 at my house without an Arctic front. If the clouds would of cleared out then I might have hit freezing. Pretty much just a good cold front for this time of the year...really nothing out of the ordinary.

Models now seem to be backing off of a strong arctic front late next week....just your average cold front for this time of year.

Also, I hope no one is getting their hopes up for possibly seeing wintry weather around our parts around Christmas. That is an EXTREMELY rare occurrence for us here in Southeast Texas. In fact, I haven't seen any form of accumulation in my area since January of 1997 (freezing rain and sleet). Also, I have never seen any wintry weather on Christmas in my 41 years of living in Southeast Texas. I know some of y'all got lucky back in 2004 but that was a 100 year event in my opinion and I didn't see a flake out of that. And I'm not trying to be a humbug, just a quick reality check. lol

Some areas saw a foot of snow in 2004. That is closest to February 1895 snowfall. It is more than 100 year event. I would say probably around 200 to 500 year event.

[Heat Miser]

Well, at least a 121 year event.
My area was one of the lucky ones in 2004. Truly was a miracle and one I probably won't see again in my lifetime. My kid, who was 10 at the time, saw the first snowfall of her life.
I agree with redneck on so many fronts (pun intended). I don't model hug or wish-cast because in reality the weather is always in flux, ever moving, and is a roll of the dice by the best of Meteorologist.
Everyone remembers the 2011 snowstorm massive bust that left a coat of frozen rain, not snow, on the roadways.
That ole pesky warm layer aloft can fool the best of them.
So many ingredients have to come together for us to have snow in this area. Usually the arctic fronts we get down here are shallow in nature which leaves a big pool of warm air up above. That's why we get one or two freezing rain threats per year and not snow. That air has to be freezing way up into the atmosphere and it just doesn't happen that often around here or if it is the moisture has moved from the area by then.
Live by the models, die by the models, either way it's fun to watch "and wish" some would come to fruition.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

And after a couple warm runs, the Euro and Para GFS go in the tank next weekend and thereafter

[srainhoutx]

A progressive quasi zonal flow pattern starts the work week with a cold front arriving on Wednesday cooling us off with highs in the 50's for Thursday. The overnight guidance continues to struggle with the finer details as the work week ends, but there is growing confidence that a deep Western trough develops and a storm system organizes Friday with cyclogenesis developing across the Central and Southern Rockies as a Winter Storm is poised to eject out of New Mexico and the Texas Panhandle toward the Great Lakes. Across the cold sector, heavy mountain snow appears to develop across the Northern New Mexico/Colorado ski areas into the front range extending into Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, Missouri and on ENE. A secondary area of snow could develop next Saturday into Sunday as the upper trough shifts East and sweeps a strong cold front across Texas a week from today.

[unome]

current HGX, 7-day forecast for D W Hooks Airport: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.ph ... =-95.55611

nothing lower than 51 for a low temp, 70s for highs every day except Thur at 61 - and a LOW of 65 tonight, half way thru Dec... guess I can put that potted plant back on the patio

that next cold front will feel even colder after this

http://graphical.weather.gov/sectors/hgxLoop.php#tabs

[wxman57]

My azaleas gave up on winter and started flowering. They bloomed early last year, but not THIS early.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Looks like they will die in 7-14 days then...

[Katdaddy]

What a difference 12 hours make as temps rose overnight from the mid 50s to low 70s currently along the coastal areas. Expect low 70s for highs with 20-30% chance of showers through Wednesday with the next cold front on Thursday. A few isolated showers streaming across the Upper TX Coast this morning.

[snowman65]

Looking like no more strong fronts the rest of 2016. Boooooo

[djmike]

Already back in shorts and tshirt outside doing yard work. Gotta love our Texas winters. May the roller coaster ride continue.

[redneckweather]

It got very quiet around here. Probably has to do with models putting the breaks on big time with all the chirping in regards to comparing this December to 1983. lol It looks like we have a mild week coming up then glancing blows from the Arctic as the bulk of it goes East as it usually does. Maybe we can get a threat of wintry weather in late January but definitely wouldn't hold my breathe. I'm just hoping I'm not wearing flip flops around Christmas which could be a possibility. Horrible.