May 2016: Shower/Storm Chances To End May

[jasons2k]

That vorticity with the really heavy stuff completely fell apart as it got close to me...

[mckinne63]

It's still raining here in Stafford and hearing some rumbles of thunder. Trees are blowing around also. Radar looks like we are all in blue. Kind of surprised to see the wind and to hear the thunder when it looks like the worst of it has all moved southeast.

[Stormrider]

I Got an inch and a half of rain in Galveston.

[StormOne]

It's still raining here in Stafford and hearing some rumbles of thunder. Trees are blowing around also. Radar looks like we are all in blue. Kind of surprised to see the wind and to hear the thunder when it looks like the worst of it has all moved southeast.

That was certainly the case here, too. Thunder even when there was no rain within 5 miles of us. It was also dark the whole day despite the fact that we got nothing more than moderate rain.

[DoctorMu]

Quite a cold top meso yesterday. 3.25 in of rain IMBY yesterday.

Still 68°F and cloudy - A/C enjoying a break while it can!

[srainhoutx]

Nice and dry day outside. Looks like we will get a break until mid to latenext week when yet another deep Western trough settles into the Great Basin. Looking forward to the Memorial Day Holiday Weekend, the afternoon updated Climate Prediction Center Outlook suggests more unsettled weather is ahead. In their Experimental Week 3 to week 4 Outlook, no real change with cooler than normal temperatures due to above normal rainfall chances.

[unome]

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/misc/about.html

SPC's Days 4-8 is looking pretty colorful !
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.


days 1 - 3
The level of categorical risk in the Day 1-3 Convective Outlooks is derived from probability forecasts of tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail on Day 1, and a combined severe weather risk on Days 2 and 3.

[srainhoutx]

Looks like an active weather pattern unfolding as moisture returns after a brief break yesterday. The atmosphere is virtually uncapped and thunderstorms are firing along the Middle Texas Coast/Matagorda Bay where PW's are near 2 inches as of this morning. Expect daily chances of heat of the day showers and storms particularly along the seabreeze and any left over boundaries from thunderstorm complexes that do develop almost daily.

Water vapor imagery shows another deep Western trough organizing and that feature will slowly dig into the Great Basin throughout the work week. There is growing concern for another heavy rainfall threat by the upcoming Memorial Day Holiday Weekend as disturbances embedded within the SW flow ripple across the Region as the Upper Low to our West slowly meanders over the Southern/Central Rockies.

[Katdaddy]

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
CENTRAL MATAGORDA COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...

* UNTIL 945 AM CDT

* AT 847 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED HEAVY RAIN DUE TO
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL CAUSE MINOR FLOODING IN THE ADVISORY AREA.
UP TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN HAVE ALREADY FALLEN.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE MINOR FLOODING INCLUDE...
SOUTHERN BAY CITY...PALACIOS...SOUTH TEXAS NUCLEAR PLANT AND
WADSWORTH.

[Heat Miser]

Don't recall watching ANY weatherman/woman on TV and them mentioning a weekend filled with the possibility of thunderstorms, especially ones that awake you at the wee hours of Saturday morning. Both me and the wife thought we were dreaming and asked " did any weather person predict thunderstorms today?"......My wife said I watched that Cheetah girl and she said a gorgeous weekend. I recall watching Chief Meteorologist Frank and he said beautiful weekend just this past Thursday. Looking out the window now I see overcast skies, not beautiful at all, and was already awakened by that gorgeous/beautiful weekend weather.
Oh the life of a meteorologist. What other profession pays so well for complete and utter failure?
It's just not an exact science, but that doesn't stop mankind from believing with have a grip on the slippery.

[mckinne63]

Very dreary day here in Stafford. Had a few sprinkles this morning but didn't even get the pavement wet. Saw a brief moment of sunshine, otherwise just cloudy and overcast. At least it is keeping the temps down.

[jasons2k]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0662
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1135 AM CDT SAT MAY 21 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 211635Z - 211800Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL RISK MAY PERSIST THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH A FEW STORMS SLOWLY SHIFTING EAST-NORTHEAST.

DISCUSSION...WEAK LOW-LEVEL WARM THETA-E ADVECTION HAS LIKELY
CONTRIBUTED TO A COUPLE STORMS OVER AUSTIN COUNTY TX. WITH MODERATE
SPEED SHEAR AMID DEEP-LAYER WESTERLIES WITHIN THE CLOUD-BEARING
LAYER...A STRAIGHT-LINE HODOGRAPH SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
SPLITTING CELLS WITH LEFT-MOVERS MOST LIKELY TO PRODUCE SEVERE HAIL
GIVEN MODERATE BUOYANCY. GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN DEPICTING
BACKING OF THE LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD DURING THE AFTERNOON AS BROADER
MASS RESPONSE BEGINS TO OCCUR DOWNSTREAM OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE WEST. AS SUCH...THE TEMPORAL EXTENT OF THE SEVERE HAIL RISK MAY
REMAIN LIMITED.

..GRAMS/HART.. 05/21/2016


ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...FWD...EWX...

[DoctorMu]

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
TXC041-051-211845-
/O.NEW.KHGX.SV.W.0069.160521T1800Z-160521T1845Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
100 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
EAST CENTRAL BURLESON COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
CENTRAL BRAZOS COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...

* UNTIL 145 PM CDT

* AT 100 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR SNOOK...OR 8
MILES SOUTHWEST OF COLLEGE STATION...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE
TO ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
COLLEGE STATION...BRYAN...SNOOK...WIXON VALLEY...KYLE FIELD AND
WELLBORN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 3043 9644 3051 9652 3079 9632 3050 9615
TIME...MOT...LOC 1800Z 228DEG 18KT 3052 9642

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH

[Cromagnum]

Damn, so much for that nice weather we were supposed to have. Time to cancel the afternoon golf game.

[djjordan]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
356 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2016

TXZ227-237-238-212200-
GALVESTON TX-BRAZORIA TX-FORT BEND TX-
356 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2016

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN GALVESTON...EASTERN
BRAZORIA AND EAST CENTRAL FORT BEND COUNTIES THROUGH 500 PM CDT...

AT 356 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
SURFSIDE BEACH...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
GALVESTON ISLAND WEST END...GALVESTON CAUSEWAY...TEXAS CITY...ALVIN...
ANGLETON...LA MARQUE...SANTA FE...EASTERN FREEPORT...HITCHCOCK...
SOUTHWESTERN MANVEL...SURFSIDE BEACH...GALVESTON PIER 21...DANBURY...
BAYOU VISTA...IOWA COLONY...OYSTER CREEK...JAMAICA BEACH...TIKI ISLAND...
HILLCREST AND LIVERPOOL.

LAT...LON 2885 9530 2901 9536 2948 9562 2934 9464
TIME...MOT...LOC 2056Z 222DEG 42KT 2901 9527

[djjordan]

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
358 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
COASTAL GALVESTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
COASTAL BRAZORIA COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...

* UNTIL 445 PM CDT

* AT 358 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR SURFSIDE
BEACH...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND NICKEL SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...EXPECT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
FREEPORT...SURFSIDE BEACH...OYSTER CREEK AND SAN LUIS PASS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

[Heat Miser]

Beautiful sunny weekend with thunderstorms everywhere. I'm truly astonished at how badly our weather forecasters are. I mean two days out they're calling for anything other than what we're truly getting.

[StormOne]

Is anybody else concerned about the cell over Rosharon, Manvel, and Iowa Colony? It appears to be moving very slowly.

[srainhoutx]

A lot of discussion with those Forecasters today both at the NWS and Media level while we were attending the Houston/Galveston Hurricane Workshop today. What was missed is we are in a feedback situation like we see during a drought feedback. The upper Ridge was forecast to be stronger even at the WPC level and clearly those forecasts were not correct. What we will need to monitor is the longer term trends particularly with already saturated soils and more disturbances headed our way throughout the coming week into the Memorial Holiday Weekend. What is raising some eyebrows is the suggestion of an Easterly wave moving across the Gulf next weekend into the early days of June. I really do not see any significant change in the current pattern even into the Extended Range that does not bode well if we have some sort of tropical or sub tropical system meandering in our backyard.

Any storms that do fire are capable of dropping 2 to 4 inches of heavy rainfall in short order, so we will need to monitor the radar daily and frequently.

[TexasBreeze]

It was supposed to be a good beach weekend, but nope!
All of these cells are slow movers with one flood warning issued already northwest and a cluster on the sw side. Not a sunny dry saturday...