April 2015: Pleasant Weather To End April

[srainhoutx]

The 06Z Texas Tech WRF again initiates a strong mesoscale convective system (MCS) near San Antonio and rapidly organizes into a very strong MCS suggesting multiple bowing segments as it approaches the Middle and Upper Texas Coast including Metro Houston/Galveston and marches E into SW Louisiana for this afternoon/evening.

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04172015 1130Z WV TEX latest.jpg

[srainhoutx]

The Updated Storm Prediction Center Outlook continues the Enhanced Risk for Severe Storms today. The primary threat will be Damaging Winds, large hail and a possible isolated tornado or two with any supercells that develop. Heavy Rainfall is also possible with a potential Flash Flooding threat with the already saturated soils.

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[jasons2k]

2.63" so far up here...and with the sun out today will be primed. A lot different than last years with the messy low clouds.

[srainhoutx]

The Weather Prediction Center issues a Moderate Risk for Excessive Rainfall for later today across SE Texas.

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EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
803 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

...VALID 12Z FRI APR 17 2015 - 12Z SAT APR 18 2015...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
10 WSW HRT 40 ENE KVOA 40 NNE CYD 15 SSE SRN 40 SE KXIH KGVX
15 SSW PKV 45 SE SSF BAZ 25 WSW LHB 15 WSW OCH 35 NW POE
35 NW BTR 30 N HSA 30 NNE BIX 15 NNE MOB 30 WNW NSE 10 WSW HRT.


...GULF COAST STATES...

THE SUBTROPICAL STREAM IS EXPECTED TO BE QUITE ACTIVE AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...AS A COUPLE OF RATHER WELL DEFINED S/WVS
WITHIN THIS STREAM PULL INTO TX AND THE WESTERN/CENTRAL GULF COAST
STATES. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAKER IMPULSE IN THIS
SUBTROPICAL STREAM COMING INTO WESTERN MEXICO AT THIS TIME...WITH
A STRONGER UPSTREAM IMPULSE APPROACHING THE CENTRAL BAJA. FOR THE
MOST PART...THE MODELS PICK UP ON THESE FEATURES...BRINGING THEM
RATHER RAPIDLY EAST-NORTHEASTWARD INTO TX LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. AHEAD
OF THESE IMPULSES...A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES
SOMEWHAT...UP TO 30-35KTS ON FRIDAY NIGHT...WHICH BRINGS IN PWS IN
EXCESS OF 1.75 INCHES INTO EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN TX AND
SOUTHERN LA. EXPECT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP AND BECOME MORE
ORGANIZED AHEAD OF THESE SUBTROPICAL IMPULSES AND THE ACCOMPANYING
INCREASE IN THE LOW LEVEL JET AND PWS...LEADING TO SOME HEAVY AND
LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINS FROM SOUTHEAST TX INTO SOUTHERN LA AND
EXTREME SOUTHERN MS. IN A GENERAL SENSE..THE MODEL QPFS ARE
SIMILAR IN INDICATING THE LIKELIHOOD OF SOME HEAVIER RAINS FROM
EASTERN TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY..ALTHOUGH THEY ARE LESS
AGREEABLE AS TO WHERE THE HEAVIEST OF RAINS WILL OCCUR. THE WPC
FORECAST IS CLOSE TO AN ARW..NMMB AND WRF/NSSL BLEND...KEEPING THE
HEAVIER RAINS NEAR THE MID/UPPER TX COAST AND THE LA COAST...WHERE
RAIN RATES OF 1-2 INCHES OVER 1-2 HOURS...AND TOTAL NEW RAINFALL
OF 2-4 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE LOCALLY.

TERRY

[srainhoutx]

Right on schedule, storms are beginning to fire near Del Rio and the Edwards Plateau.



SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
927 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

TXZ184-171515-
EDWARDS TX-
927 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN EDWARDS COUNTY UNTIL
1015 AM CDT...

AT 925 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 19
MILES WEST OF ROCKSPRINGS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

THIS STORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF NORTHWESTERN
EDWARDS COUNTY...INCLUDING HIGHWAY 55.

04172015 14Z TX VIS latest.jpg

[srainhoutx]

Update from Jeff:

Impressively active weather day yesterday across the region…

The following are storm reports from yesterday.

Hedwig Village, Harris: .75 in hail at intersection of I-10/BW 8

Hedwig Village, Harris: numerous reports of quarter size hail

Columbus, Colorado: dime size hail in downtown Columbus

4W Columbus, Colorado: Est 60mph on I-10 4 miles west of Columbus. Traffic completely stopped both ways on I-10. Tree limbs broken

8 NW Huntsville, Walker: dime size hail

Huntsville, Walker: ½ inch hail in Huntsville

Huntsville, Walker: Flash flood on Sam Houston State University campus. Rec Center flooded with 6-8 inches of water. Numerous cars flooded

Bryan, Brazos: Ping Pong ball size hail

The Woodlands, Montgomery: Widespread wind damage over ½ mile stretch of subdivision. Numerous trees down on to homes.

Palacios, Matagorda: Funnel cloud just north of Palacios from tornadic supercell

Eagle Lake, Colorado: Golfball size hail in the town of Altair. Damage to roofs and vegetation

Liberty, Liberty: Flash Flood, FM 536 and FM 160 E flooded

Rosenberg, Fort Bend: Golfball size hail reported by law enforcement at FM 762 and US 59. Damage to vehicles at shopping center

Rosenberg, Fort Bend: 55-65mph winds for 10-15 minutes straight at my house. Intense downdrafts within incredible rainfall rates between 1005-1020pm. Hail core started at 1015pm with marble size hail and grew to quarter size hail with almost no rain and 40-50mph winds. Hail was being driven nearly horizontal.

Pasadena, Harris: flash flooding of roadways including Red Bluff Dr.

Rainfall Reports:
Goose Creek at Baytown: 5.24
San Jacinto River at Rio Villa: 4.60
Pasadena: 3.88
Channelview: 3.72
Grapeland: 2.54
White Bayou near Devers (Liberty Co): 8.19
Huffman: 3.40
The Woodlands: 3.23
Spring: 3.07
Oak Ridge North: 2.28
New Caney: 2.20
East Bernard: 2.48
Eagle Lake: 3.94
Boling: 2.18
Huntsville: 3.80
Coldspring: 3.94
Sugar Land: 3.50
Richmond: 2.89
Missouri City: 2.45
Columbus: 2.70
Turtle Bayou at Hwy 563 (Chambers Co): 8.58
Mt Belvieu: 4.12
Spindletop Bayou (Chambers Co): 6.38

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[srainhoutx]

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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0334
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1026 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...EDWARDS PLATEAU...ADJACENT RIO GRANDE VALLEY AREA
OF TEXAS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 171526Z - 171730Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...OCCASIONAL SEVERE HAIL IS POSSIBLE LATE THIS MORNING WITH
CONVECTION NOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU. A SEVERE
WEATHER WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED IN THE NEAR TERM...BUT IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT ONE MAY BE NEEDED BY EARLY AFTERNOON...IF/WHEN AN
APPRECIABLE INCREASE IN SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL BECOMES MORE
CERTAIN.

DISCUSSION...A CONSIDERABLE INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS
NOW WELL UNDERWAY NORTH THROUGH NORTHEAST OF DEL RIO. THIS APPEARS
TO BE LARGELY IN RESPONSE TO FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH MOIST LOW-LEVEL
UPSLOPE FLOW FROM THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY INTO THE EDWARDS
PLATEAU...PERHAPS AIDED BY ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK LOW-LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION...DOWNSTREAM OF LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGHING WITHIN THE
SUBTROPICAL STREAM ACROSS THE MEXICAN PLATEAU. DEVELOPMENT
GENERALLY APPEARS TO BE OCCURRING WITHIN A RELATIVE MINIMUM IN DEEP
LAYER SHEAR...BETWEEN THE STRONGER CYCLONIC FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FOUR CORNERS CLOSED LOW...AND THE SUBTROPICAL JET TO THE SOUTH.
HOWEVER...MODESTLY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ATOP A RICH LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE RETURN THROUGH THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY IS CONTRIBUTING TO
SIZABLE CAPE...WHICH MAY CONTRIBUTE TO POTENTIAL FOR OCCASIIONAL
SEVERE HAIL IN STRONGEST STORMS DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

INTO THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON HOURS...IT APPEARS POSSIBLE THAT
CONVECTION COULD CONTINUE A GRADUAL UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A LARGER
STORM CLUSTER WHICH COULD SUPPORT AN EXPANDING/STRENGTHENING SURFACE
COLD POOL. LOW-LEVEL FLOW FIELDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN RATHER
WEAK...BUT THE TENDENCY MAY BE FOR CONVECTION TO EVENTUALLY DEVELOP
EASTWARD ALONG A RESIDUAL...DIFFUSE FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDING EASTWARD
ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND ADJACENT AREAS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

..KERR/HART.. 04/17/2015


ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...

[srainhoutx]

NWS Lake Charles extends Flash Flood Watches until late afternoon on Saturday.

[srainhoutx]

At the request of the Storm Prediction Center, NWS Corpus Christi will be preforming a special 18Z balloon launch.

[srainhoutx]

The 1630Z Updated Outlook from the Storm Prediction Center continues the Enhanced Risk for Severe Storms.

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[jasons2k]

After a calm, still morning, the wind is starting to really pick up.

[srainhoutx]

First Severe Thunderstorm Watch of the day issued along and West of the I-35 Corridor.

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[srainhoutx]

Another Update from Jeff:

Severe Thunderstorm Watch # 67 issued until 700pm for all of N/C and SW TX.

Approaching strong upper level disturbance on southern flank of a large upper level low over the SW US resulting in the rapid formation of numerous strong to severe thunderstorms from Childress to San Angelo to Laredo. Activity on the southern part of this line is showing some supercell characteristics south of Junction, TX and east of Laredo, TX.

Downstream air mass over SC/S TX is extremely unstable with CAPE values over 3000 J/kg and little to no capping. Weak diffuse low level boundary is laying along a line from offshore of Galveston to Port O Connor and then inland over SC TX toward Cotulla, TX. Air mass over SE TX is still in recovery mode, but surface heating under nearly sunny skies is pushing surface temperatures toward 80 degrees already and puffy cumulus are starting to develop suggesting instability is building. Thermo and severe weather parameters and fairly impressive for this afternoon and expect another round of widespread strong to severe thunderstorms as the strong Baja disturbance ejects across SC TX and strong 200mb divergence increases creating sustained lift.

Flooding rainfall, damaging winds to 60mph, and large hail are the main threats. Low level winds are currently veering to the SE and S as the meso high edges east which is reducing the near surface shear over the region which should help mitigate the tornado threat.

Quick flash flood decision matrix certainly supports the ongoing flood watch with 3 to 6 hr flash flood guidance now very low across the region. Looking at only 1-2 inches to start causing significant run-off problems and with high PW air mass of 1.8 inches incoming from the SW, we could easily see those rates in an hour or less which will quickly place locations into a flash flood mode. Really worried about Harris, Chambers, and Liberty Counties where rainfall was greatest yesterday and watersheds are still trying to drain overnight run-off. It is unlikely that the run-off will be drained out before the next round arrives which only serves to increase the flooding threat. WPC has place the central portions of SE TX under a moderate risk of excessive rainfall and flooding.

Residents across SE TX are urged to remain aware of the developing weather situation this afternoon/evening and be prepared to act quickly if severe weather or flooding impacts your location.

Note: Additional weather watches will almost certainly be required E of weather watch 67 later this afternoon.

[srainhoutx]

18Z KCRP sounding is available...4200 j/kg CAPE, 1.78 in. PWAT, -12 SFC Based LI, 42kt 0-6 km shear, -77 CINH on the ML parcel.

Note. KCLL is also doing a special sounding. Andrew will update when the information is in and complete.

[srainhoutx]

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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0337
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0131 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...LWR RIO GRANDE VALLEY INTO MIDDLE TEXAS COASTAL
AREAS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 67...

VALID 171831Z - 172000Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 67
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...SEVERE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUST POTENTIAL WITH AN
EVOLVING CONVECTIVE SYSTEM APPEAR LIKELY TO INCREASE SOUTH OF SAN
ANTONIO TOWARD MID/UPPER TEXAS COASTAL AREAS THROUGH 21-22Z.

DISCUSSION...CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT NEAR COTULLA TX APPEARS TO BE IN
THE PROCESS OF APPRECIABLE INTENSIFICATION AND INCREASING
ORGANIZATION. THIS IS PROBABLY BEING SUPPORTED BY ENHANCED
VERTICAL SHEAR IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE SUBTROPICAL JET AXIS...ANS
PERHAPS FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION ASSOCIATED WITH AN
EMBEDDED SPEED MAXIMUM WHICH THE LATEST RAPID REFRESH SUGGESTS WILL
NOSE EAST NORTHEAST OF THE LOWER RIO GRANDE RIVER TOWARD 21-22Z.

GIVEN THE BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION NOW WELL UNDERWAY ACROSS
MUCH OF SOUTHERN TEXAS...SUBSTANTIVE FURTHER UPSCALE CONVECTIVE
GROWTH AND FORWARD PROPAGATION APPEARS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES CHARACTERIZED BY STEEP MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES...HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER AND SIZABLE CAPE MAY BE
SUPPORTIVE OF OCCASIONAL VERY LARGE HAIL AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT COLD POOL...ACCOMPANIED BY THE RISK FOR
STRONG...DAMAGING SURFACE GUSTS. WITH SUBSTANTIVE EASTWARD
ACCELERATION OF THE EVOLVING CONVECTIVE SYSTEM PROBABLE...TIMING
INTO MIDDLE TEXAS COASTAL AREAS...NEAR/NORTH OF CORPUS CHRISTI
THROUGH PALACIOS...POSSIBLY AT LEAST SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
HOUSTON METRO AREA...REMAIN A BIT UNCLEAR. BUT AN ADDITIONAL
WATCH...OR EXTENSION OF WW 67 MAY BE NEEDED WITHIN A COUPLE OF
HOURS.

..KERR.. 04/17/2015


ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...EWX...

[srainhoutx]

The Weather Prediction Center continues Moderate Risk for Excessive Rainfall across SE Texas and portions of SW Louisiana.

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EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
228 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

...VALID 18Z FRI APR 17 2015 - 00Z SUN APR 19 2015...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
35 NNW ALI 25 SSW HDO 25 NNE HDO 10 NW AUS 25 S PSN 25 NW POE
35 SSE ESF 15 S MCB 20 SSW HBG 35 NW MOB 20 NNE BFM 15 NW JKA
25 NW KVOA 25 E KMDJ 25 WSW KEIR KEHC 20 NW KBBF 35 NNW ALI.

MODERATE RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
10 NNW CXO 35 SW JAS 20 NW LCH 15 NE KCMB 25 SSW KVBS BYY VCT
25 WNW VCT 25 SW 3T5 15 W 11R 10 NNW CXO.


...TEXAS / LOUISIANA...

A MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS FORECAST OVER SOUTHEAST
TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA IN ANTICIPATION OF AN MCS THAT WILL
TRACK THROUGH THE REGION LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. SOUTH TEXAS AND
SOUTHERN LOUISIANA WERE SANDWICHED BETWEEN TWO FOCI FOR MID LEVEL
ASCENT. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH CONTRIBUTED TO A FLASH FLOOD
EVENT ALONG THE COAST THURSDAY EVENING WAS MOVING THROUGH
MISSISSIPPI. IN ITS WAKE OBSERVATIONS SHOWED STABLE CONDITIONS
OVER SE TX/SRN LA...BUT AIRMASS RECOVERY WAS UNDERWAY WITH RISING
TEMPERATURES ALL ALONG THE TEXAS COAST AND WIDESPREAD BOUNDARY
LAYER CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT SOUTH OF CORPUS CHRISTI. MEANWHILE
DIFLUENT UPPER LEVEL FLOW WAS INTERACTING WITH AN INSTABILITY AXIS
BACK ACROSS SOUTHWEST TEXAS TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE
INITIATION. THE NEXT PRONOUNCED TROUGH AXIS WAS LOCATED WELL
UPSTREAM IN THE SUB-TROPICAL JET...BUT VAD WIND PROFILER DATA AND
THE BEHAVIOR OF ORGANIZED STORMS UP TO 18Z INDICATED THAT LOW
LEVEL INFLOW WAS ALREADY STRENGTHENING BENEATH THE PERSISTENT
DIFLUENCE AT THE UPPER JET LEVEL. NUMEROUS FORECAST MODELS PREDICT
WHAT WAS RELATIVELY EVIDENT FROM OBSERVATIONS...THAT CONVECTION
WILL GRADUALLY GROW UPSCALE AND THEN TRACK ALONG THE NORTHWARD
ADVANCING MOISTURE/INSTABILITY GRADIENT OVER SOUTH TEXAS. MCS
MOTION IS PREDICTED TO THE EAST...BUT THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO
WHETHER THE CENTER OF AN EVOLVING MCS MAY PROPAGATE SOUTH TO FIND
THE GREATEST INSTABILITY...ESPECIALLY IF CONVECTION EVOLVES
UPSCALE MORE QUICKLY THAN SEEN IN THE MODEL FORECASTS. WHETHER THE
TRACK OF HEAVIEST RAIN IS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10...OR RIGHT ALONG
INTERSTATE 10...IT IS LIKELY THAT LOCATIONS IN THE MODERATE RISK
AREA WILL RECEIVE HEAVY RAIN DURING A 1-2 HOUR PERIOD...AND
POSSIBLY LONGER IF EVOLUTION OCCURS MORE SLOWLY AND ALLOWS GREATER
INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP. WPC IS FORECASTING A MAXIMUM OF
PRECIPITATION FROM JUST EAST OF SAN ANTONIO TO NEAR HOUSTON...AND
THEN GRADUALLY DROPPING INTO THE WATERS OF THE GULF NEAR SOUTHWEST
LOUISIANA. CELL MERGERS AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING MCS COULD BOOST
PRECIPITATION TOTALS...AND SHORT TERM PRECIPITATION RATES HAVE
POTENTIAL TO BE HIGH GIVEN PRECIPITABLE WATER RISING ABOVE 1.70
INCHES. RAIN RATES OF 1-2 INCHES OVER 1-2 HOURS...AND TOTAL NEW
RAINFALL OF 2-4 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE LOCALLY. FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE IS LOW TO VERY LOW GIVEN A WET PATTERN IN RECENT DAYS AND
THE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL THAT OCCURRED YESTERDAY. THIS SUGGESTS A
LARGE PERCENTAGE OF THE NEW RAINFALL WILL GO INTO SURFACE RUNOFF
AND PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING.

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z Texas Tech WRF has a good handle on the storms developing to our West and suggests training storms will again linger well into the early morning hours after the big Mesoscale Convective System rolls East across the I-10 Corridor. It is a bit worrisome to see a yet another possible MCS developing tomorrow morning to our West suggesting another round of severe weather with very heavy rainfall approaching. Stay Tuned and follow our Texas Weather Board Facebook and twitter social media feeds for all the up to date information!

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[srainhoutx]

NWS Corpus Christi extends Severe Thunderstorm Watch East to include Bee and Live Oak Counties. This is probably the first of several extensions East concerning WW# 67 with a strong possibility of a New Watch being issued closer to the Middle and Upper Texas Coast.

[srainhoutx]

Another Update from Jeff:

SPC monitoring area for possible extension or new issuance of weather watch downstream of box 67.

Air mass is becoming very unstable over SC TX into the Matagorda Bay region with increasing and intensifying storm structures over the Rio Grande plains. Surface observations show a dewpoint of 74 at Victoria with an air temperature in the lower 80’s. Parameters are in place for an increase in the severe wind and hail threat over the next 2-4 hours as this activity moves toward the Corpus, Victoria, Matagorda Bay region.

Very large hail to 2 inches in diameter and potential damaging wind gusts to 70mph will be possible with this activity.

Additional cells may begin to develop within the next 1-2 hours along returning outflow/warm front boundary near the coast where visible satellite images shows enhancement of vertical cumulus formations. These storms may also go severe and be extremely slow moving producing excessive flooding rainfall rates. CRP radar appears to be showing the start of development SW of Victoria along US 59.

[srainhoutx]

From NWS Corpus Christi:
Spotters in Los Angeles (east LaSalle County) reported wind gusts up to 70 mph and trees snapped and uprooted.