March Ends As One Of The 'Wettest' March On Record

[ticka1]

received over 3 inches of rain here at the house this morning

[Heat Miser]

It was a Gully washer with a lot of thunder. Says N/E Friendswood received 1.6.......

[Texaspirate11]

Guess our very own HGX NWS felt the effect of this storm: 10 a.m. disco:

DISCUSSION...
HAD A LIGHTNING STRIKE EARLIER THIS MORNING WHICH ADVERSELY
AFFECTING THE SBN. THE IMPACT HAS BEEN THAT THERE IS NO OUTSIDE
DATA MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE LOCAL AWIPS. WFO LCH WILL BE TAKING
OVER SERVICE BACKUP. A REPAIR TEAM IS ON THEIR WAY BUT THERE IS
NOT A TIME LINE FOR A RETURN TO SERVICE.

[BlueJay]

It's Friday the Thirteenth...
As Texaspirate11 says "Be Weather Aware"!

[srainhoutx]

It would sure be nice to get this persistent damp inversion (Low cloud cover) out of the Eastern 3rd of Texas and Louisiana this weekend. Unfortunately it doesn't look too promising for sunshine to last beyond a day or two if it does clear out with another pesky Baja low developing and bringing additional moisture from the Pacific across Mexico into Texas early next week.

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[BlueJay]

It is certainly nice to warm up a bit, but I'm quite anxious for it to be a bit warmer than 62F!
Patience is a virtue.

[srainhoutx]

A somewhat complicated and complex split flow pattern appears likely in the coming days as energy E o Hawaii transitions E. A deep trough dives South across the Baja Peninsula and begins to tap deep tropical moisture as the Baja low retrogrades before beginning to shift East across Mexico and eventually across Texas. Rain chances begin to increase Sunday evening as the upper ridge shifts E. There continues to be some uncertainty on the eventual timing of the upper air disturbance moving across our Region, but rain and storm chances look to increase Tuesday into Wednesday. Some of the storms could bring rounds of heavy rainfall, but the severe potential looks very low. Rain and storm chances may increase later next week as yet another strong upper air disturbance rides across Texas in what appears to an active weather week. Get out and enjoy today. It may be the best weather day we will have in the days ahead!

[Katdaddy]

As Srain posted, enjoy the sun if you see it. Over the next several days as an active southern stream will persist into next weekend. With the saturated grounds from last weeks rains; the flooding threat will increase which each passing disturbance next week. An active weather pattern ahead.

[Katdaddy]

I hope everyone enjoyed the sun yesterday. We will likely not see the sun until next weekend at this time across SE TX. Low level clouds remain across NTX this morning while mid and high level clouds are spreading across TX from Mexico and the WGOM. The next low pressure system to affect TX can be seen on the water vapor image spinning over the Gulf of California this morning. Rain chances begin to increase starting Tuesday night with the potential for heavy rains. Thunderstorms will be possible however the severe weather threat remains very low. Another storm system will arrive by next weekend bringing an additional heavy rain threat to Texas leading to an increased flooding threat with saturated grounds.

[unome]

a beautiful weekend - looking forward to another gorgeous spring day & thankful for the rain that's keeping our flora healthy & our water bill low

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/ ... anced+/8d/

[srainhoutx]

Morning briefing from Jeff:

After a couple of dry and pleasant days, rainfall looks to return as early as Tuesday night and again for the end of the week.

Storm system located off the west coast of Mexico this morning near Baja will eject eastward on Tuesday and across TX Tuesday night/Wednesday. Moisture will increase off the Gulf of Mexico today into Tuesday and peak Wednesday morning with PWS of roughly 1.5-1.7 inches which is fairly impressive for mid March. Strong lift comes to bear across a moist atmosphere late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning with widespread showers and thunderstorms expected. Will focus the heaviest rainfall across our western counties Tuesday night where the potential exists for a period of cell training and then across nearly the entire area on Wednesday. Thunderstorms will be possible, but not expecting any severe weather. Rainfall amounts of .25-.50 of an inch on average with isolated totals of 2-4 inches possible especially west of I-45.

Surface front may slow and stall across the area on Thursday, but just enough dry air may push in to end rain chances. Next storm system heads for the region Friday and Saturday and this one is looking wet. Rains start in earnest on Friday and continue into Saturday. Too early to tell if there will be a flood threat, but wet grounds and potential for several inches of rainfall during this period certainly is worth watching.

Hydro:
Watersheds are in recession over the region, but still elevated. The lower Trinity remains above flood stage and will remain in flood through most of this week due to upstream releases. All other watersheds are back within banks. Additional rainfall this week will likely result in additional rises and some potential to return to flood stage given the saturated grounds.

[srainhoutx]

Dr. Phil Klotzbach states this is the highest MJO index ever recorded. All the Tropical activity across the Southern Hemisphere brought forth a record breaking Westerly wind burst near the dateline ushering in El Nino.

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[Paul Robison]

(Non-severe) Thunderstorms will be possible, Jeff? SPC says maybe not. Look at quote from day three outlook:

...EAST TX/LA/SRN MS/SWRN AL...
AT THE SURFACE...A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT SHOULD BE LOCATED FROM
COASTAL AREAS OF SWRN AL/SERN MS WWD THROUGH SRN LA TO SOUTHEAST TX
ON WEDNESDAY. UPPER-LEVEL DIFLUENT FLOW AND WEAK LOW-LEVEL WAA
EXPECTED ACROSS EAST TX THROUGH THE SRN PART OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY
REGION WITHIN A VERY MOIST AIR MASS /PW VALUES AT OR ABOVE 1.5
INCHES/ WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION. THIS WILL
LIMIT SURFACE HEATING...AND COMBINED WITH WEAK LAPSE RATES RESULT IN
MUCAPE AT BEST OF 500-700 J/KG. WEAK LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL LIMIT
CONVERGENCE...WHILE THE WEAK INSTABILITY FURTHER INHIBITS UPDRAFT
STRENGTH. THE WEAK LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL ALSO LIMIT HODOGRAPH SIZE.
ALTHOUGH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 30 TO POSSIBLY 40 KT WILL BE
POSSIBLE...THE AFOREMENTIONED NEGATIVE FACTORS /WEAK LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND WEAK INSTABILITY/LAPSE RATES/ FOR MORE ROBUST STORMS
PRECLUDES THE INCLUSION OF SEVERE PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME. CONVECTION SHOULD WEAKEN WEDNESDAY EVENING AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WEAKENS FURTHER AND MOVES EWD AWAY FROM THE MOIST ENVIRONMENT.'

Note expected limiting of surface heating they mention.
Hope you appreciate me mentioning this. G'night everybody.

[srainhoutx]

The pesky upper low that has brought higher elevation heavy snow & flooding rains to Central Mexico is beginning to shift NNE this morning and fill in. The latest thinking is the upper low will move more NNE into West Texas versus into Central Texas as some of the guidance has been indicating. That should keep the heavier rainfall to our W across the Western Hill Country where they sorely need the rain. There is a chance for some elevated non severe storms tomorrow across portions of SE Texas, but chances of seeing anything more than an inch or two of rain seem to be decreasing. Water vapor imagery shows a robust jet streaking E across the Pacific and that may increase rainfall chances later this week. Typically the guidance struggles with such a pattern across Pacific, so expect day to day changes in the sensible weather forecast. That powerful jet screaming E would likely make for a fast and bumpy flight from Honolulu to Houston with such a strong tail wind.

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[srainhoutx]

Morning briefing from Jeff:

Two storm systems will affect TX over the next several days with additional widespread rainfall…some heavy.

An upper air storm system near Baja this morning will begin to move eastward today spreading lift from west to east across TX. At the surface warm southerly flow is bringing moisture back to the area with dewpoints into the low to mid 60’s which will likely result in some sea fog. Expect a mostly dry Tuesday followed by increasing rain chances tonight as the lift from the approaching upper level low spreads into the region. Will favor areas along and west of a Palacios to College Station line overnight for showers and even a thunderstorm or two.

Strong lift spreads eastward on Wednesday with showers and thunderstorms likely across the region. There is some debate on exactly how strong the sub-tropical ridging over the Gulf of Mexico will be and if that may keep the bulk of the activity north and west of metro Houston, but the latest short term guidance is fairly aggressive will thunderstorms over the central counties from late morning into early evening. A few of the storms could be on the strong side, but instability is generally lacking. Will favor the threat for isolated heavy rainfall especially NW of a line from Palacios to Waller to Cleveland where a low level boundary may establish.

Weak frontal boundary may stall across the area on Wednesday night into Thursday so cannot completely pull rain chances on Thursday with a low level focus in the region. Expect coastal areas to remain in the light onshore flow which will keep 60 degree dewpoints over the cool nearshore waters…so sea fog is a good bet Wednesday-Friday.

Friday-Sunday:
Another strong upper level system will dig into the SW US and then head for TX…very El Nino like…with widespread rain and thunderstorms likely Friday and Saturday. This system appears stronger and has more moisture to work with than the first system tomorrow so concern is growing for a possible flooding threat due to the longer duration of the event and possible higher totals. Could again see some thunderstorms with this system also Friday night and Saturday.

Hydro:
Grounds remain wet across the region with additional rainfall likely Wednesday and Friday/Weekend. Main river stems are in recession from the rainfall last week, but forecasted rainfall amounts over the next 3-5 days suggests widespread amounts of 1-3 inches with isolated totals up to 5 inches will be possible. This amount of rainfall will generate new rises on areas watersheds and likely require flood gate operations on area reservoirs.

[jasons2k]

Looks like there was an actual sea breeze today. You can still see it on radar moving across Harris County.

[Ptarmigan]

Looks to be a wet week. I would not be surprised if I hear thunder early morning.

[unome]

after some lovely weather to work outside & get the spring lawn & gardening chores done, this rain will be welcome

http://www.harriscountyfws.org/

http://tinyurl.com/may9552

Storm Total Precipitation - radar estimate, 12 hr loop

[srainhoutx]

The upper low and its associated cold pocket aloft should translate rather quickly NE with the fast split level zonal flow across the Southern tier of the Lower 48. Water Vapor imagery is showing the next Baja upper low organizing and that feature has a good tap of Eastern Pacific tropical moisture to work with. The current storm system looks impressive on radar, but dry air at the mid levels associated with the High Pressure ridge that brought a good weather weekend is still having an influence across our area. That ridge will continue to move East and should open the door to much better rain chances Friday with a heavy rainfall threat into Saturday as the next upper low moves across Texas. The pattern still looks unsettled into next week as yet another storm system develops to our West.

[srainhoutx]

Skies are clearing behind the batch of light rain that spread across the Region early this morning. There is a meso High Pressure cell building in that could bring gusty NW along the Coast today. Temperatures where the sunshine breaks out could near 80F. There is a chance of some isolated storms to fire this afternoon mainly across the Hill Country underneath the cold pocket aloft associated with the upper low.

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