Wx Infinity Forums

There is also a fairly vigorous wave axis in the Western Caribbean besides the Eastern Gulf disturbance.

Rip76 wrote:EGOM - starting to get that "look."

Yes it is. Sustained convection with a ball and coma feature. Decent mid level circulation too.

But, if I were a betting man, I'd say Louisiana.
Or - the dry side.

Rip76 wrote:EGOM - starting to get that "look."

Yeah Rip it is.

All this is making me feel AZish.

Ed Mahmoud wrote:Is there a bat colony on US59 on the Ft Bend County line or something?^^

I've been asking about those rings for years on different forums, screen shots and all, and nobody has replied yet. The strange thing is that they happen in the early morning, whereas the bat colonies in Central Texas appear in the evening.

robertscottlazar wrote:another day ,no rain. where is this so called wetter pattern with tropical showers that everyone was talking about?
seriously, david pauls futurecast didnt work too well this week. it busted.
weathermen need to stop relying so much on the computer models. instead of letting them make the forecasts, david paul should make the forecasts himself using old fashioned sense and anaylization of the model data. im sick and tired of promised 30 40 50 % chances of rain then getting nothing.

Seems like to me that you don't understand the forecast. 30% chance of rain means there is a 70% chance it will not rain...not sure why you are expecting so much rainfall from lower chances. Additionally this time of year storms are very scattered in nature they develop drop their rainfall and die meaning some locations get a quick inch and others nothing. There is no way to determine at 600am in the morning where an individual thunderstorm cell will develop in the next 8 hours...it is impossible and will be impossible for as far as I can see.

For all the complaining that goes on about the lack of rainfall...I have had none...zero...zilch at my house since June until last Friday when I picked up .40. In my local area the cracks are as big as in 2011, by it is very localized to about 5 miles around my subdivision. As proven in northern Grimes County two nights ago...it only takes one cell in the right location...over your location...to make a quick dent in the dryness.

Rip76 wrote:All this is making me feel AZish.

LOL!!!! I feel your pain!!

mr jeff, i understand the %'s and those numbers. what i am saying is that futurecast forecast thing was wrong. david paul had predicted a 40% chance of rain foe wendsday. he had said their was moisture coming this way from louisiana. apparently that moisture never made it and the atmoshere had too much sinking? i understand that meant theres a 60% chance of no rain.
however. the forecasted 40% coverage didnt occur. there was a less than 10% coverage according to what i was seeing on the radar. that is what people are complaining about.
less than 24 hours out and the models couldnt get it right. i dont think the futurecast map that khou uses is accurate.

Ed Mahmoud wrote:

jasons wrote:

Ed Mahmoud wrote:Is there a bat colony on US59 on the Ft Bend County line or something?^^

I've been asking about those rings for years on different forums, screen shots and all, and nobody has replied yet. The strange thing is that they happen in the early morning, whereas the bat colonies in Central Texas appear in the evening.

Speaking of bats, one of the SPC 'cool images' is bats flying from their caves West of SAT/AUS and being ingested into a supercell.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/plot_met.php?s ... _label=CDT

Diurnal max pressure came early at this buoy today, and wasn't much of a peak.

Woa, wait a minute... am I still in the wx forum? or did someone change to the bat channel?

robertscottlazar wrote:mr jeff, i understand the %'s and those numbers. what i am saying is that futurecast forecast thing was wrong. david paul had predicted a 40% chance of rain foe wendsday. he had said their was moisture coming this way from louisiana. apparently that moisture never made it and the atmoshere had too much sinking? i understand that meant theres a 60% chance of no rain.
however. the forecasted 40% coverage didnt occur. there was a less than 10% coverage according to what i was seeing on the radar. that is what people are complaining about.
less than 24 hours out and the models couldnt get it right. i dont think the futurecast map that khou uses is accurate.

I think it is ironic that you are complaining so much about the usage of models (and the inaccuracies that come with it) while your whole argument/ source of complaint is based off of one (in house) model. A 40% chance of rain is and has been a good forecast especially when KHOU broadcasting is mainly referencing the Houston Metro, surrounding areas and the coast. You have to understand how hard it is to forecast at the micro-scale. A lot of the rapid updating models have come a long way in these type of forecasts but trying to predict where one storm will pop up is still a long ways away. As for the LA Moisture, there is still a decent amount of moisture in the eastern/central gulf that should arrive late in the weekend into the beginning of next week. Hopefully this will provide you some rain and that 40% chance of rain will come true for you.

[quote="Ed Mahmoud"]You prefer I complain about David Paul and his 40% forecast while we also discuss cool images from the SPC website, and 1012 mb and falling pressure at a buoy just West of the Gulf blob?







Ed? Who was complaining???? I was CONFUSED!

I think robertscottlazar was talking about is the weatherman and weatherladies..Just use the models to do the forecast..If a model says 20% then I will say that on tv..If that is the case..Then anybody can do weather..Just read the model..and smile on camera and say 20% chance of rain..

robertscottlazar, he just wants to use everything you have at your disposable to do the weather. Look at many models, analyze data use your hunch, study the area..On what tends to happen put all that into a forecast and let it go.

I'm doing the wave.....

Let's do it!

Rain......

Afternoon e-mail from Jeff:

Tropical disturbance has shown some increase in organization this morning off the mouth of the MS River.

While surface observations from buoys, oil rigs, and vessels in the area do not support any type of closed surface circulation, radar and visible satellite images suggest a defined mid level circulation does exist and deep thunderstorms have been developing near/around this area now for several hours. Conditions are fairly favorable for some development should a surface low form with the only real negative factor the proximity to the US Gulf coast.

With upper level high north of this system…there is high confidence in a track toward the west with a landfall of this feature along the upper TX coast likely on Sunday.

The National Hurricane Center is currently suggesting a 20% chance of tropical cyclone development from this feature and there is little to no model support, but satellite trends appear to be suggesting organization is increasing.

Maybe it's my eyes, I'm just not seeing it moving West.
Maybe I need to focus on the whole blob..

If this area of thunderstorms develops and that is a big if, it would be like Tropical Storm Edouard in 2008. It developed in the same area and took the general path.

Rip76 wrote:Maybe it's my eyes, I'm just not seeing it moving West.
Maybe I need to focus on the whole blob..

You are seeing the expansion of the cloud shield off to the north. The Slidell radar suggest a very slow W drift. Think the models are too fast in brining this wave axis to the coast...

Here is what the HOUSTON NWS posted on their facebook page

US National Weather Service Houston-Galveston Texas shared a link.

4 minutes ago.

Keeping an eye on an area of disturbed weather in the eastern Gulf.
National Hurricane Center has a 20 percent chance of development. It is poorly organized and is surrounded by dry air on 3 sides at the present time. This wave should move across the northern Gulf and eventually move over Southeast Texas on Sunday and Monday bringing a good chance for rainfall - possibly even heavy rainfall.

Stay tuned.

AZ and others who get worked up over percentages and the way meteorologist present their forecast on TV.
First, it isn't that easy. You just don't look at "models" and get behind a green wall and smile to the camera and say there is a 40% chance of rain this evening. If a meteorologist had it that easy, then you wouldn't need them, and you could just go online to look at your local weather. Meteorologist look at many models, every day to give the best accurate forecast. I'm currently at OU here in Norman getting my met degree, and as I've quickly picked up on, is you are responsible to look at models everyday to pick up on patterns and such. Based on patterns, they (meteorologist) provide their input from the models to give us a forecast.
As Jeff/Andrew pointed out, a 40% chance of rain is a 40% the viewing area in and around Houston will get rain. However, a 60% you will not get rain.
Another example, here in Norman today, some local mets called for a 0% chance of rain today (less than 10%) while some mets called for a 10% of rain. There were some pretty unexpected scattered pop up thunderstorms this afternoon here in southern OK, but roughly 90% of the viewing area up here didn't receive any rainfall.

I know it's frustrating when day after day after day goes by and you don't see rain, even though the 7 day forecast has good chances for you to see some. That's Mother Nature. Can't sit on a computer and blame meteorologist for them proving what they observe. Now hopefully everyone will see rain either Sunday or Monday as this tropical system comes in, but unless there isn't a 100% of rain in the forecast, you still could miss out. Welcome to weather!

But please don't bash David Paul or any reliable met for that matter. They do a good job, not everyone can be perfect, especially when it comes to meteorology and predicting "day time thunderstorms".