April - Ends on Mild Note

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
SaskatchewanScreamer
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C2G wrote:
Texas Pirate wrote:Have I told y'all how much I really hate cold wx? :twisted:
Yes, I believe you have, and I'm sure you know I hate it too.
I could not imagine a more miserable Spring to have than what we're experiencing now.
April 20th and I'm wearing warm ups. Should be wearing shorts.
And now there's talk of another front next week? The hits keep coming.
Come up here so you can feel/see for yourselves what your fellow cold weather Texans wished upon us!!! :evil:

Only fair that *some* of you should suffer along with me! :D

I HATE THIS SPRING WITH A PASSION!!! :cry:

We should have green grass by now, trees about to bloom, early spring flowers up....but no I still have 2 1/2 feet of snow in my backyard. :P (with luck those hot weather lovers will take away Tireman's and ThundersleetDreams (I know YOU have a different Nick here), and all those other cold weather fools, access to the net.

So when is the latest date that Houston ever had frost? :twisted:
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tireman4
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Ptarmigan wrote:
tireman4 wrote:
That is fine. I was raised in Texas. Texas City, Texas is the place of my birth. As a runner, I do like the cold. The heat just wears me out and by August I am nearly exhausted. We do agree to disagree. Trust me, you will get your warmth. Even the coldest Summers we have experienced (1976 comes to mind) had warm days to them. :)
1976 had one 100 degree day on August 7, 1976. There have been summers without 100 degree days. That last happened in 1997.
See I was right....and to prove my point on 1976 ( and the winter was really cold too)

Winter of 1976:

January 1976: Not ranked, but January 1977 was the second coolest January of all time
Febuary 1976: Not ranked

Spring 1976:

March 1976: Not ranked
April 1976: Not ranked
May 1976 was 70.5 which is the coolest May of all time


Summer of 1976:

June 1976 was 78.4 which is the fifth coolest June of all time
July 1976 was 80.5 which is the fourth coolest July of all time
September 1976 was 76.2 which is the eighth coolest September of all time

Fall of 1976:

October was 60.6 which is the coolest October of all time
November was 51.8 which is the coolest November of all time
December was 49.2 which is the fifth coolest December of all time

Coolest years of all time:

1976: 65.8 degrees.


Now Ptarmigan has way more stats than I do. So, to really get down to the nitty gritty, you have to ask him. He is a whiz at those things. Could we be reverting back the mid 1970's as far as cool? Who knows. Just some grist for the gristmill.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/hgx/?n=climate_iah_top10_annual
SaskatchewanScreamer
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^ So much for my hopes that they'd turn on the cold lovers...... :cry:
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txflagwaver
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We are actually having Spring this year and not jumping straight into Summer. I like it... :D
Paul Robison

423 AM CDT SUN APR 21 2013/

DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE HAS MOVED EAST OF SE TX RESULTING IN A WEAK ONSHORE
FLOW AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER MOISTURE LEVELS. CLOUD COVER WILL BE MORE
PREVALENT TODAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER AS
WELL. MOISTURE LEVELS CONTINUE TO DEEPEN THROUGH TUESDAY IN
ADVANCE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS SE TX ON TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE AREA WILL REMAIN STRONGLY CAPPED THROUGH THROUGH
TUESDAY SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP OTHER THAN A
FEW STREAMER SHOWERS ON TUESDAY. SPC HAS PUT SE TX IN SEE TEXT FOR
TUESDAY BUT FEEL CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IS LOW DUE TO THE CAP
STRENGTH AND OVERALL LACK OF INSTABILITY
. MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE FRONT CROSSING THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT BETWEEN
06-12Z. THE NAM IS NOW THE FASTEST WITH THE FRONT CROSSING THE
COAST BY 09Z. THE GFS AND ECMWF LOOK SIMILAR WITH THE FRONTAL
TIMING AND MASS FIELDS. PARAMETERS LOOK A TOUCH OUT OF PHASE
BETWEEN BEST MOISTURE...CAPPING AND JET DYNAMICS SO WILL KEEP POPS
AT CHANCE FOR NOW. NOT VERY CONFIDENT WITH THE WEATHER PATTERN AT
THE END OF THE WEEK EITHER. THE GFS KEEPS THINGS UNSETTLED
THROUGH FRIDAY WHILE THE ECMWF BRINGS IN SOME DRYING. THE ECMWF IS
MUCH STRONGER WITH A S/WV ON SATURDAY AND BRINGS A SWATH OF PRECIP
THROUGH WHILE THE GFS IS DRIER AND FOCUSES THE PRECIP WELL NORTH
OF THE REGION. WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES UNTIL A
MODEL CONSENSUS FORMS. TEMPS WILL LIKELY WARM BACK INTO THE LOWER
80S BY FRIDAY AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO TREND CONSIDERABLY
WARMER BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS HEIGHTS BUILD AND SFC DEW PTS
INCREASE.


GOLD!
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srainhoutx
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Morning e-mail from Jeff:

After record lows on Saturday morning, a warming trend is now underway as winds have returned to the SE.

Next cold front is forecasted to cross the area Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, but strong capping in the mid-levels should once again reduce coverage along the front to just a thin line of showers. Front stalls over the coastal waters on Wednesday with SW flow aloft helping to bring moisture up and over the top of the surface cool dome. A period of overrunning cloudiness and possible light showers is expect Wednesday. The combined effects of clouds, cold air advection, and possible rain will keep temperatures very cool on Wednesday with highs only in the 60’s.

A strong shortwave looks to move across the area late Wednesday into early Thursday while the surface front over the Gulf begins to move northward as a warm front. This disturbance may have enough intensity to develop a round of showers and thunderstorms Wednesday night into early Thursday.

Will go with a warming and drying trend into next weekend with temperatures returning to near normal of lows in the 60’s and highs in the 80’s.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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Ptarmigan
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tireman4 wrote:
See I was right....and to prove my point on 1976 ( and the winter was really cold too)

Winter of 1976:

January 1976: Not ranked, but January 1977 was the second coolest January of all time
Febuary 1976: Not ranked

Spring 1976:

March 1976: Not ranked
April 1976: Not ranked
May 1976 was 70.5 which is the coolest May of all time


Summer of 1976:

June 1976 was 78.4 which is the fifth coolest June of all time
July 1976 was 80.5 which is the fourth coolest July of all time
September 1976 was 76.2 which is the eighth coolest September of all time

Fall of 1976:

October was 60.6 which is the coolest October of all time
November was 51.8 which is the coolest November of all time
December was 49.2 which is the fifth coolest December of all time

Coolest years of all time:

1976: 65.8 degrees.


Now Ptarmigan has way more stats than I do. So, to really get down to the nitty gritty, you have to ask him. He is a whiz at those things. Could we be reverting back the mid 1970's as far as cool? Who knows. Just some grist for the gristmill.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/hgx/?n=climate_iah_top10_annual
I am not sure if we going back to mid 1970s. For one, PDO was warming up, unlike right now which we are in a cool PDO phase. Also, 1970s had a cool Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). 1971 is when AMO went cool. I do know the 1970s had back to back La Ninas starting in 1973 to 1976. 1973-1974 had one of the strongest La Nina. 1974-1975 and 1975-1976 Winter were La Nina, while 1976-1977 was El Nino. Winter 1975-1976 had a moderate to strong La Nina.

Interestingly, Fall 1976 was cool throughout the nation. 1976 started as La Nina and ended up as El Nino. Also, PDO was becoming warmer. The coolest spring to occur in the Upper Texas Coast was in 1931. The coolest summer occurred in

Coolest Spring
1.) 1931 63.8°F
2.) 1915 65.9°F
3.) 1926 65.97°F
4.) 1983 66.13°F
5.) 1969 66.57°F
6.) 1952 66.93°F
7.) 1993 66.97°F
8.) 1924/1960 67.03°F
9.) 1937/1970 67.13°F
10.) 1932 67.17°F

Some of the coolest springs on record major hurricanes make landfall like in 1915 (Galveston Hurricane), 1932 (Freeport Hurricane), and 1983 (Alicia). Could a cooler than normal spring mean a major hurricane on our backyards this season? Tropical storms have made landfall in 1960 (Unnamed Tropical Storm) and 1970 (Felice). We did get heavy rain from Arlene in 1993.

Coolest Summer
1.) 1976 80.77°F
2.) 1903 80.83°F
3.) 1961 80.87°F
4.) 1940 80.97°F
5.) 1919 81.17°F
6.)1973/1974 81.2°F
7.) 1972 81.27°F
8.) 1946/1975 81.33°F
9.) 1933/1989 81.37°F
10.) 1968/1979/1983 81.53°F

1976 is the coolest summer since 1895. Interesting to note that 1933 (Tropical Storm #4), 1940 (Hurricane #2 and Tropical Storm #6), 1961 (Carla), 1973 (Delia), 1979 (Claudette and Elena), and 1983 (Alicia) had a tropical cyclone make landfall. Two had major hurricanes, Carla (1961) and Alicia (1983). We did side swiped by Tropical Storm Candy in 1968. Interesting to see back to back cool summers in the early 1970s from 1972 to 1974. 1973 and 1974 were La Ninas.

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/temp-and-precip/ranks.php
http://www7.ncdc.noaa.gov/CDO/CDODivisionalSelect.jsp
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Ptarmigan
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There is a lot of snow coverage in April.

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tireman4
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Amazing. For April, amazing. It looks like February. Will this be a harbinger of things to come? Hummm
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srainhoutx
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Morning e-mail from Jeff:

Summer seems to be having a hard time taking hold this year, unlike the past several as another shot of unseasonably cold air comes down into the area tonight.

Cold front over NW TX with sub-freezing temperatures into the TX panhandle and mid 40’s over NW TX will move southward and into the region late this afternoon and off the coast toward Wednesday morning. Air mass ahead of this front is strongly capped by a layer of warm air in the mid-levels…that sounds familiar! Front should progress through the region with only a thin band of showers as capping holds strong. Surface boundary will stall over the northwest Gulf on Wednesday with warm southerly flow surging up and over the surface cold dome resulting in a period of overrunning. Weak short waves in the WSW flow aloft will help encourage the moist flow over the cold dome and help with marginal lift. Expect showers and possibly a few thunderstorms to continue behind the front especially toward the coast on Wednesday.

Conditions will be downright cold for late April standards with highs on Wednesday likely not getting much above 60 or some 20 degrees below normal. Gusty winds, clouds, and possible rainfall will make it feel like a winter day instead of late spring. Record low maximum temperatures may fall on Wednesday if the front passes through the area near of shortly before midnight as highs will likely be at that moment. A stronger short wave crosses the area early Thursday and this may end up being the greatest chance of rainfall this week.

Warm front will move northward on Friday returning the area to more normal temperatures and humidity. WSW to SW flow aloft remains through the period and this will allow weak ripples of energy to moves across the area every few days. Models are not in good agreement on when such disturbances may move across the region nor how strong they may be, thus will maintain at least 20-30% rain chances each day from Friday through the weekend, but these could go up or down depending on if a stronger disturbance approaches the area at some point.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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Katdaddy
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The 8AM SPC Convective Outlook:

...CNTRL/E TX LATER TODAY THROUGH TNGT...
AN INCREASE IN THE COVERAGE OF ELEVATED SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY OCCUR
TNGT THROUGH EARLY WED OVER CNTRL AND ERN TX AS COLD FRONT CONTINUES
SEWD AND UNDERCUTS INCREASING LOW-LVL MOISTURE RETURN. STORM
DEVELOPMENT ALSO MAY BE FOSTERED BY THE APPROACH OF SRN STREAM UPR
IMPULSE NOW OVER NW MEXICO. WHILE THE CONVECTION IN CNTRL TX SHOULD
REMAIN TOO FAR REMOVED FROM APPRECIABLE MOISTURE TO POSE A RISK FOR
SVR HAIL...SUFFICIENT ELEVATED BUOYANCY MAY DEVELOP OVER SE TX TO
YIELD A CONDITIONAL SVR HAIL RISK GIVEN EXPECTED INCREASE IN PW TO
AOA 1.50 INCHES.
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wxman57
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Flew home from Norway yesterday. Cold and rainy (40s) most of the time. Had 2 days where the sun came out (Fri/Sat). Lake atop "Floyen" mountain was still frozen, though the elevation is probably under 1000 ft. Lots of ice along the hiking trails up there. Walked down the mountain on Sunday (took an hour).

Floyen:
http://www.floibanen.com/experience/

Flew over southern Greenland on the way back (below). Not very green. The scenery looked just like the images below across eastern Canada all the way south to the Great Lakes.

http://home.comcast.net/~cgh57/green1.JPG

http://home.comcast.net/~cgh57/green2.JPG
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tireman4
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Welcome back sir. I am glad you enjoyed yourself. We missed ya.
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wxman57
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Feels strange to walk outside without multiple layers of coats covered by rain gear. I see another cold front is on the way here. Should pass us tonight. Looking forward to a warm-up this weekend so we can get back on the bikes.

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kayci
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Is Galveston Co. going to stay above freezing or do I need to go home and cover my tomatoes?
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Katdaddy
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It will in the low to mid 50s along the coast early tomorrow morning and again Wednesday morning. As Wxman said, it will be a warm weekend......cant wait.
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kayci
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THANX KAT!
Paul Robison

There seem to be differing opinions as to whether or not the area will experience dangerous severe thunderstorms tonight with the frontal passage. Could someone tell me what the consensus among area forecasters is?
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Paul Robison wrote:There seem to be differing opinions as to whether or not the area will experience dangerous severe thunderstorms tonight with the frontal passage. Could someone tell me what the consensus among area forecasters is?
There will be no dangerous thunderstorms...a few elevated storms are possible with some small hail late tonight....but nothing I would consider dangerous.
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Where is that damn groundhog..

I'm posting a reward for its capture.
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