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Re: July: Increasing Heavy Rain Chances & Potential Flood Th

Posted: Wed Jul 11, 2012 11:51 am
by MontgomeryCoWx
Good Lord! Victoria is getting pounded by extreme heavy rainfall.

Re: July: Increasing Heavy Rain Chances & Potential Flood Th

Posted: Wed Jul 11, 2012 12:02 pm
by radiogirltx
Live in Port lavaca, and work at a radio station in Bay City. Only got as far as Blessing this morning and had to turn around and come home due to flooded roads. Matagorda county has been hammered for the last 24 hours.

Re: July: Increasing Heavy Rain Chances & Potential Flood Th

Posted: Wed Jul 11, 2012 12:22 pm
by jgreak
Are things over for Harris county?

Re: July: Increasing Heavy Rain Chances & Potential Flood Th

Posted: Wed Jul 11, 2012 12:40 pm
by MontgomeryCoWx
IMO, this is far from over.

Re: July: Increasing Heavy Rain Chances & Potential Flood Th

Posted: Wed Jul 11, 2012 1:35 pm
by weatherguy425
While this event definitely hasn't been a total bust for me, the northeast Harris County area has largely been spared from rains yesterday and today. Definitely could handle some more, judging by the clearing which is beginning to take place across northern and north-central areas along with some intense convect trying to work up the coastal bend and storms firing just north of our area...I'm still hopeful that my local area may see a bit more today.

Re: July: Increasing Heavy Rain Chances & Potential Flood Th

Posted: Wed Jul 11, 2012 2:58 pm
by jasons2k
Check out this update from Eric Berger on the rain: http://blog.chron.com/sciguy/2012/07/th ... is-summer/

Also, notice the area bounded by The Woodlands - New Caney - Kingwood - Spring.

Re: July: Increasing Heavy Rain Chances & Potential Flood Th

Posted: Wed Jul 11, 2012 3:22 pm
by Belmer
Has been pouring in sheets of rain for 30 minutes straight now. Not even a break in between. Looks like we have a training line of storms just south of Austin into Kyle and here into San Marcos. I expect a flood waning to be issued soon if this keeps up since I just passed by a few flooded streets.

Re: July: Increasing Heavy Rain Chances & Potential Flood Th

Posted: Wed Jul 11, 2012 3:23 pm
by MontgomeryCoWx
After the last few days of 75-80 degree temps, Im reminded of my Summers up North in Grad School.... I could go the rest of the Summer without seeing 90 degrees if it meant rain every day. I'd be happier than a pig in slop.

Alas, Houston is a suburb of Hell, and I am soaking up this 75-80 degree as much as possible here in July. I expect we will see the triple digit heat back here in due time. August is the worst month of the year. Boring heat, little rain, College Football is still a month away and no good TV or sports on the tube.

Can we fast forward to September? :lol:

Re: July: Increasing Heavy Rain Chances & Potential Flood Th

Posted: Wed Jul 11, 2012 3:47 pm
by gocuse22
Rain seems to be tapering off toward the southern part of the area, we still dont know if the blow up of thunderstorms tomorrow will be along the coast again like today, or further inland

Re: July: Increasing Heavy Rain Chances & Potential Flood Th

Posted: Wed Jul 11, 2012 4:22 pm
by jasons2k
Jeff seems to think it will be close to the coast again, possibly even offshore. He said most of it should be south of I-10. NWS seems to say anyone's guess.

Edit: I came home to more rain this morning than I thought - my .70" was turned into 1.63". So 1.63" for me the last 24 hours is good - I'll take that, and for me I'd say this is officially not a bust, even if my totals may be paltry compared to other spots. Overall a good call by everyone with the heavy rain threat this week.

Re: July: Increasing Heavy Rain Chances & Potential Flood Th

Posted: Wed Jul 11, 2012 5:30 pm
by weatherguy425
I can definitely see the coastal or offshore idea playing out due to this mornings coastal convection probably pushing an outflow boundary just offshore. However, the 12z ECMWF, RAP,and HRRR all seem to peg the central and northern areas tonight into tomorrow morning. Guess we'll just have to keep an eye on the radar.

Re: July: Increasing Heavy Rain Chances & Potential Flood Th

Posted: Wed Jul 11, 2012 7:29 pm
by Katdaddy
Picked up only .13" today. Perhaps more tomorrow for NW Galveston County.

Re: July: Increasing Heavy Rain Chances & Potential Flood Th

Posted: Wed Jul 11, 2012 7:47 pm
by Ptarmigan
These storms had no lightning or thunder, but plenty of rain. They happen at night like a tropical core rain event. I think some areas may see a total of 15 inches or more once it is all over.

Re: July: Increasing Heavy Rain Chances & Potential Flood Th

Posted: Wed Jul 11, 2012 8:18 pm
by Portastorm
Belmer wrote:Has been pouring in sheets of rain for 30 minutes straight now. Not even a break in between. Looks like we have a training line of storms just south of Austin into Kyle and here into San Marcos. I expect a flood waning to be issued soon if this keeps up since I just passed by a few flooded streets.
Belmer, good to see you finally got in on the rain action. I've had a little more than 3 inches at my house since Monday morning. Amazing! :D

Re: July: Increasing Heavy Rain Chances & Potential Flood Th

Posted: Wed Jul 11, 2012 8:24 pm
by jasons2k
Ptarmigan wrote:These storms had no lightning or thunder, but plenty of rain. They happen at night like a tropical core rain event. I think some areas may see a total of 15 inches or more once it is all over.
That's one thing that is fascinating about these storms for sure. I was amazed at how hard it was just pouring overnight and not a single clap of thunder. I checked the radar and expected to see this huge blob of red, but it was just a tiny spec - a tiny little cell, that just dumped right over me. I was glad to see the rain but I feel for those who have flooding to worry about.

Re: July: Increasing Heavy Rain Chances & Potential Flood Th

Posted: Wed Jul 11, 2012 8:28 pm
by jgreak
So far this week's total for my house in Kingwood is 2.4 inches. It's admirable, but I sure would appreciate a little more...my trees are starting to shed their leaves, looks like fall in my backyard!

Re: July: Increasing Heavy Rain Chances & Potential Flood Th

Posted: Wed Jul 11, 2012 9:34 pm
by Belmer
Portastorm wrote:
Belmer wrote:Has been pouring in sheets of rain for 30 minutes straight now. Not even a break in between. Looks like we have a training line of storms just south of Austin into Kyle and here into San Marcos. I expect a flood waning to be issued soon if this keeps up since I just passed by a few flooded streets.
Belmer, good to see you finally got in on the rain action. I've had a little more than 3 inches at my house since Monday morning. Amazing! :D

Yes, it sure is nice to see the rain we got last night into today after a bone dry end of May and into all of June. Not sure how much exactly San Marcos has picked up within the last 48 hours, as yesterday was a more hit and miss kind of day, but my guess with the 30-45 minute heavy rains I saw this afternoon, we picked up around 2-3 inches. Even though our rain chances start decreasing here in Central, TX for tomorrow and through the week, hopefully we can squeeze out another punch of rain. Grass needs it here!
Even though you've seen quite a bit of rain as well since Monday, I hope more comes your way. Seems like Austin had showers North, East, South, and West today, but not actually in Austin. :lol:

Re: July: Increasing Heavy Rain Chances & Potential Flood Th

Posted: Wed Jul 11, 2012 10:16 pm
by jasons2k
Looking at GrLevel2 radar, I've been watching this circulation all day sorta meander along the Brazos river valley. Earlier today it was headed SSE towards the coast. This evening it stalled and now it appears to be drifting back inland to the NNW, near I-10 now. If another round of nocturnal rains develop around this feature, there may be some flooding across those areas tonight and something to watch for.

Re: July: Increasing Heavy Rain Chances & Potential Flood Th

Posted: Wed Jul 11, 2012 10:33 pm
by rnmm
jasons wrote:Looking at GrLevel2 radar, I've been watching this circulation all day sorta meander along the Brazos river valley. Earlier today it was headed SSE towards the coast. This evening it stalled and now it appears to be drifting back inland to the NNW, near I-10 now. If another round of nocturnal rains develop around this feature, there may be some flooding across those areas tonight and something to watch for.

Is the coast clear of rain tonight?

Re: July: Increasing Heavy Rain Chances & Potential Flood Th

Posted: Wed Jul 11, 2012 10:50 pm
by Baseballdude2915
rnmm wrote:
jasons wrote:Looking at GrLevel2 radar, I've been watching this circulation all day sorta meander along the Brazos river valley. Earlier today it was headed SSE towards the coast. This evening it stalled and now it appears to be drifting back inland to the NNW, near I-10 now. If another round of nocturnal rains develop around this feature, there may be some flooding across those areas tonight and something to watch for.

Is the coast clear of rain tonight?

NWS says heavy rain....definately bites on this feature mentioned in jasons post. Could be a decent soaking overnight (after 1am or so) and into most of tomorrow. Maybe a peek of sun Friday to balance out.

Seriously looks like a week straight from now with at least a 30%-40% chance of rain every day.