November: Cool & Dry To End The Month

[snowman65]

Would appreciate any help from the pros if someone can give me an indication of the what to expect during Thanksgiving week for the Eastern Tennesee area. I know.....it's a long ways off but we will be up there that week....Thanks!

[wxman57]

Would appreciate any help from the pros if someone can give me an indication of the what to expect during Thanksgiving week for the Eastern Tennessee area. I know.....it's a long ways off but we will be up there that week....Thanks!

Yes, it's a long way off - too long. Check back in about 10-15 days.

[srainhoutx]

A quick look at the week ahead still suggests another Cold front in the Wednesday/Thursday time frame with a chance of pre frontal showers/storms, this go around. It does appear we are entering a more progressive pattern with fronts dropping down with more frequency and each one a bit stronger as the month moves along. The next front looks to drop some rain/snow in the Plains as well, so that will be something to watch. The Pacific is becoming rather active with big winter cyclones moving across the N Pacific and cold air building across Northern Alaska and the Yukon Territory. I would not be surprised to see our first frost in the next couple of weeks here in SE TX. We will see...

lol...

[srainhoutx]

I'm going to spend a little time during lunch giving some of my thoughts on what I think we may see ahead for the remainder of the month and into early December. Right now we are in a progressive pattern with a Western trough. That doesn't look to change anytime too soon. In fact we may start to see rains to our N as early as next week and increasing snows in the Rockies and Northern/Central Plains. Our area may not see much in the way of rain, but frequent 'cool fronts' will continue to slide by every 5-7 days. While I have posted the la la land GFS charts, there is something to the pattern for second half of November that leads to these swings. We could see a -NAO and a +PNA begin to develop which could bring some badly needed rains and cooler temps, but it will likely not last beyond early December. As some of you know I chat a lot with some forecasters that specialize in long range forecasting. The early signals are to watch out just after Christmas. For now, I'll save that for another time and another Topic.

[ejburas]

Srain, I'm headed to the Front Range and into the Colorado Rockies from Nov 18-22. I know it's early, but what might I expect up there?

[wxman57]

Srain, I'm headed to the Front Range and into the Colorado Rockies from Nov 18-22. I know it's early, but what might I expect up there?

It's too early for any specifics, check back in another week. But the general pattern over the next few weeks is for regular weather systems moving west to east across the Rockies, dropping a good bit of snow in the Rockies, particularly in the higher elevations (ski resorts).

[srainhoutx]

The cold front has entered the Panhandle and will sweep quickly S and E as the day goes by. Light streamer shower may develop this afternoon/evening ahead of the front as it nears are area, but not much in the way of rainfall. The big story with be the much cooler temps and gusty NW breezes that will bring another round of Red Flag Warnings for tomorrow. The front may bring the 'coolest' temps we have seen so far into the metro Houston area Friday morning. Low 40's and even upper 30's are possible and then a warm up begins for the weekend. Slight rain chances look in the offing and even better rain chances in N Central and N TX/OK with widespread rains and even some severe weather as a potent storm system takes shape the will likely become a major winter type storm for the Central and Northern Plains early next weeks. If the Euro is correct, there may even be some light snow in OK by mid week of next week as the trough ejects out of the Rockies. We will see.

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z WRF is a little more aggressive with a line of shower as the front moves by...

[wxman57]

Middle of the night frontal passages usually don't have much rain associated with them. No help from daytime heating. Sad to see those 80 deg temps slipping away.

[Ptarmigan]

Middle of the night frontal passages usually don't have much rain associated with them. No help from daytime heating. Sad to see those 80 deg temps slipping away.

The days are getting shorter.

[Ptarmigan]

I am not impress

http://radar.weather.gov/lite/N0R/HGX_loop.gif

Doesn't look to impressive.

[srainhoutx]

Coldest night of the year may be on tap for folks N of the Belt Way tonight. I wouldn't be surprised to see some Frost Warning issues later today for the Northern areas of the forecast area. Meanwhile, Red Flag Warnings are up for all the area today. Didn't get a drop of rain when the front passed by, but that may change the next storm system. More later about that...

[wxman57]

Middle of the night frontal passages usually don't have much rain associated with them. No help from daytime heating. Sad to see those 80 deg temps slipping away.

The days are getting shorter.

Well, maybe with the sun rising an hour earlier starting Sunday we'll get some extra heating before the afternoon.

[srainhoutx]

Morning e-mail from Jeff:

Fire Weather Watch has been upgraded to a Red Flag Warning for today

Wind Advisory in effect until 700pm

Strong cold front has cleared the coast and is rapidly roaring southward into the Gulf of Mexico this morning. NW winds of 15-25mph have been common behind this front with gust to near 40mph. In fact offshore platforms above the sea surface have been gusting to near 45-50mph this morning. Strong cold air advection is sending temperatures falling into the 40’s and 50’s across the region and we should continue to see the temperature slide downward through about 900am before we start to get some recovery. Radar is also showing a few post frontal showers over Victoria, Jackson, and Wharton counties and this activity should end quickly this morning.

High pressure will be nearly directly overhead tonight producing a cold night across the entire region. Dewpoints falling into the 20’s this afternoon combined with winds going calm will result in surface heating today being lost to space. Temperatures will crater after sunset with Friday morning lows the coldest of the season so far. Expecting mid 30’s north of HWY 105 and a few areas could reach freezing in this area. Upper 30’s along US 59 and low 40’s near the coast. Freeze warning has been issued for areas just to our west across central TX, but the current feeling is that widespread freezing temperatures will not impact our area and thus no warning at this time.

Red Flag Warning:
Other issue will be fire weather today with strong winds and falling RH. Still looks to be a marginal day with winds being the main controlling factor and RH finally bottoming out around 20% west of I-45 this afternoon. Winds of 15-25mph will continue through the early afternoon hours and then begin to weaken as the surface high builds overhead. Fine fuels have recovered some due to recent rainfall and suspect starts even with favorable air mass conditions will be on the low side. However should a fire get started rapid spread would be possible especially in the ladder and canopy fuels which remain very dry.

Extended:
As quick as it will come today and tonight, the surface high and cold will be shifting east on Friday and SE winds return on Saturday as the western US trough reloads. Noisy SW flow aloft will combine with increasing Gulf moisture to produce at least a 20-30% chance of showers late Saturday –Monday mainly from activity moving inland off the Gulf. Next cold front is due into the region late Tuesday and this front looks to have a decent shot at rainfall with plenty of moisture to work with. Additionally, post frontal clouds and rainfall may linger into Wednesday under another round of cold air advection. We shall see if the models continue with this wet trend or if the ongoing drought wins out again.

[tireman4]

Middle of the night frontal passages usually don't have much rain associated with them. No help from daytime heating. Sad to see those 80 deg temps slipping away.

The days are getting shorter.

Well, maybe with the sun rising an hour earlier starting Sunday we'll get some extra heating before the afternoon.

Wow, you are looking for anything for daytime heating. LOL. I love these temperatures. ( well, not yesterday's. Cooked me while I was running...sigh)

[redneckweather]

Wxman, you might get the best of both worlds next week.....COLD and WET.

[srainhoutx]

Waiting on the 12Z GFS. See previous days GFS 500 mb imagery hotlinked above somewhere.

0Z GFS, not a drought buster, under an inch total, but rain, and TT near 50, suggestive of some 'fun-derstorm' action.

Severe threat for N TX and OK is growing and SPC has already outlined those areas in the Day 5-6 range. 12Z GFS looks hopeful. We will see...

[srainhoutx]

Coldest night of the year may be on tap for folks N of the Belt Way tonight. I wouldn't be surprised to see some Frost Warning issues later today for the Northern areas of the forecast area. Meanwhile, Red Flag Warnings are up for all the area today. Didn't get a drop of rain when the front passed by, but that may change the next storm system. More later about that...

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
836 PM CDT THU NOV 3 2011

...FREEZE WARNING FOR THE NORTHWEST HALF OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...

.THE COMBINATION OF CLEAR SKIES...DECREASING WINDS...AND A VERY
DRY AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN A LIGHT FREEZE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
HALF OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

TXZ163-164-176-177-195>199-210>212-041400-
/O.NEW.KHGX.FZ.W.0001.111104T0800Z-111104T1400Z/
AUSTIN-BRAZOS-BURLESON-COLORADO-GRIMES-HOUSTON-MADISON-MONTGOMERY-
TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BELLVILLE...BRENHAM...BROOKSHIRE...
BRYAN...CALDWELL...COLLEGE STATION...COLUMBUS...CONROE...
CROCKETT...EAGLE LAKE...GROVETON...HEMPSTEAD...HUNTSVILLE...
LAKE SOMERVILLE...MADISONVILLE...NAVASOTA...PRAIRIE VIEW...
SEALY...THE WOODLANDS...TRINITY...WEIMAR...WILLIS
836 PM CDT THU NOV 3 2011

...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CDT FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HOUSTON/GALVESTON HAS ISSUED A
FREEZE WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CDT FRIDAY.

* EVENT...A LIGHT FREEZE MAINLY TO THE NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM
COLUMBUS TO HEMPSTEAD TO CONROE TO TRINITY.

* TIMING...TEMPERATURES WILL DIP TO AT BELOW FREEZING FOR BETWEEN
1 AND 4 HOURS DURING THE PERIOD 3 AM AND 9 AM.

* IMPACT...TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO BETWEEN 29 AND 32 DEGREES
ACROSS THE WARNING AREA...MAINLY IN RURAL LOCATIONS. MORE URBAN
AREAS WILL SEE SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZE WARNING MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE IMMINENT OR
HIGHLY LIKELY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL KILL CROPS AND OTHER
SENSITIVE VEGETATION.

[Ptarmigan]

Severe Weather Outbreak Possible Next Week
http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/news/s ... tbreak.asp

Should be an interesting next week.

[srainhoutx]

Severe Weather Outbreak Possible Next Week
http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/news/s ... tbreak.asp

Should be an interesting next week.

00Z NAM and GFS raise an eyebrow for N TX/OK. Cap needs to break in our area for some relief...