Wx Infinity Forums

Jamie81 wrote:srain, you mentioned in an earlier post that SHIP model is sugguesting slow movement of this system and I recall seeing in the July 4th outlook thread that some models were sugguesting the high moving toward the north. Are you seeing any indications of this actually happening and possiblity steering whatever this becomes more our way? keeping fingers crossed for some rain....

This will make landfall tomm night into Thursday morning most likely. Any rain we get July 4th will not be from this system but some of the models do indicate some moisture around that time period but it is a little to far out to say for sure.

95L is looking like a pretty large system. It will be interesting to see if areas around Corpus or Brownsville get any good precipitation amounts. I feel like tonight this will be our first depression.

Special Update has 95L up to 90% now...

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
400 PM EDT TUE JUN 28 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING
THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WAS ABLE TO
LOCATE A LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF CIRCULATION. HOWEVER...THE ASSOCIATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT SUFFICIENTLY ORGANIZED TO
DESIGNATE THE SYSTEM AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT THIS TIME.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE LIKELY TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT...AND THE LOW HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION AT ANY TIME. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS
IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH. INTERESTS ALONG THE
EAST COAST OF MEXICO IN THE STATES OF TAMAULIPAS AND VERACRUZ
SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM...AS A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THESE AREAS TONIGHT
OR EARLY WEDNESDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS SHOULD
CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN MEXICO OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/BERG

IMO, Should become Arlene tonight or tomorrow

Here we go:


BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_RENUMBER_al952011_al012011.ren
R
U
040
010
0000
201106282316
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP

Looks like they are going with TS Arlene.

AL, 01, 2011062818, , BEST, 0, 209N, 933W, 30, 1006, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 180, 75, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, ARLENE,

TROPICAL STORM ARLENE SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012011
0000 UTC WED JUN 29 2011

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE
COAST OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO FROM BARRA DE NAUTLA NORTHWARD TO
BAHIA ALGODONES.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BARRA DE NAUTLA TO BAHIA ALGODONES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 93.7W AT 29/0000Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT.......100NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..100NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 93.7W AT 29/0000Z
AT 28/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 93.3W

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 21.7N 94.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...100NE 40SE 40SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 22.0N 95.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 50SE 50SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 22.0N 96.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 75SE 75SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 22.0N 97.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 25SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 75SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 21.5N 100.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.2N 93.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/KIMBERLAIN

TS Arlene is here! Hoping we have some additional rains but it does not look good. A rogue northern feederband would be very nice.

Katdaddy wrote:TS Arlene is here! Hoping we have some additional rains but it does not look good. A rogue northern feeder band would be very nice.

We have a better chance of some rain (maybe) from the storms to our northeast that are moving south and southwestward, I think.

Katdaddy wrote:TS Arlene is here! Hoping we have some additional rains but it does not look good. A rogue northern feederband would be very nice.

.

Katdaddy I'm hoping for a couple of those rogue feeder bands myself.

wxman57 wrote:We have a better chance of some rain (maybe) from the storms to our northeast that are moving south and southwestward, I think.

And what's that - 5% instead of 0%??

srainhoutx wrote:

Jamie81 wrote:srain, you mentioned in an earlier post that SHIP model is sugguesting slow movement of this system and I recall seeing in the July 4th outlook thread that some models were sugguesting the high moving toward the north. Are you seeing any indications of this actually happening and possiblity steering whatever this becomes more our way? keeping fingers crossed for some rain....

First, welcome to the board, Jamie81. It does look as if moisture will increase close to Coastal TX, but not a lot inland beyond the Rio Grande Valley and the Corpus area. That said, the 12Z HWRF is a bit slower and suggests a stronger system. I'd keep an eye on the NATL discussions as there are hints of another perhaps stronger disturbance heading toward the Gulf from the NW Caribbean later in the 4th of July Holiday weekend...

Thanks srain - long time reader, finally decided to join. Looks like things could get interesting after the 4th, and for the rest of the season for that matter.

Looks like some very light shower "feeder bands" are moving across Brownsville tonight.

http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/southplains_loop.php

Hey, Tropical Storm Arlene, you are looking good for a tropical storm.

Arlene is looking a lot better. There is some great banding setting up and she is getting her act together a lot faster then most models are predicting. The conditions are superb in the BOC and this should continue. A general track to the west looks most likely and then to the WSW once inland in Mexico. The ridge is holding strong around here and I doubt we will get much moisture around here from Arlene. If you look at the water vapor you can clearly see the dry air surrounding us and as Arlene consolidates (due to her strengthening) this will only decrease our chances even more. Mexico and South Texas on the other hand could get a lot of rain and HPC is predicting 14 inches in some parts of Mexico. As I write this, deep convection is forming over the LLC and banding is getting more evident. I would not be surprised to see a cat 1 declared tomm as some impressive intensification is beginning. The old feeder bands way north of the LLC are dying and a lot of deep convection is forming around the LLC which is a clear indication that development is occurring and at a fast rate. I don't want to get too attached to the development though, as it could die off as seen many times in the past but I do not think this will happen. The best thing for Mexico is to prepare for a Cat 1 or even a Cat 2 (worst worst case scenario and I don't think this will happen) and to hope for the best. Unfortunately it does not look like this system will help us or our drought situation. Maybe next week, but that is a different story all together.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-wv.html

Arlene is looking much improved, structure wise this morning. RECON is enroute and should arrive to a stronger system within the hour...

Vortex Message # 1

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 29th day of the month at 12:58Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 308)
Storm Number & Year: 01L in 2011
Storm Name: Arlene (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 2
Observation Number: 06
A. Time of Center Fix: 29th day of the month at 12:30:00Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 21°19'N 95°22'W (21.3167N 95.3667W)
B. Center Fix Location: 171 miles (276 km) to the ESE (111°) from Tampico, Tamaulipas, México.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: Not Available
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 35kts (~ 40.3mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 90 nautical miles (104 statute miles) to the NE (41°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 101° at 46kts (From between the E and ESE at ~ 52.9mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 138 nautical miles (159 statute miles) to the NE (43°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1000mb (29.53 inHg) - Extrapolated
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 22°C (72°F) at a pressure alt. of 350m (1,148ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 24°C (75°F) at a pressure alt. of 450m (1,476ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 23°C (73°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Levels (sfc and flt lvl centers are within 5nm of each other): Surface and 1,500 feet
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 12 nautical miles
Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 46kts (~ 52.9mph) in the northeast quadrant at 11:42:30Z
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: Below 1,500 feet
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
L/V DIAMETER OF CENTER 24NM

Some of those tropical thunderstorm's canopies look like they might be in the -100ºF to -110ºF range.

Looking much better this morning...

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 29th day of the month at 14:27Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 308)
Storm Number & Year: 01L in 2011
Storm Name: Arlene (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 2
Observation Number: 09
A. Time of Center Fix: 29th day of the month at 14:08:00Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 21°14'N 95°28'W (21.2333N 95.4667W)
B. Center Fix Location: 168 miles (270 km) to the ESE (114°) from Tampico, Tamaulipas, México.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: Not Available
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 33kts (~ 38.0mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 98 nautical miles (113 statute miles) to the SE (131°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 198° at 35kts (From the SSW at ~ 40.3mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 100 nautical miles (115 statute miles) to the SE (131°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1000mb (29.53 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 24°C (75°F) at a pressure alt. of 300m (984ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 24°C (75°F) at a pressure alt. of 366m (1,201ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 24°C (75°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind and Pressure
N. Fix Levels (sfc and flt lvl centers are within 5nm of each other): Surface and 1,500 feet
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 9 nautical miles
Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 47kts (~ 54.1mph) in the southwest quadrant at 13:01:00Z
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
DIAMETER OF L/V CTR 18NM

The 10:00AM full package disco now brings Arlene near Hurricane strength just prior to landfall:

THE CURRENT LACK OF A WELL-DEFINED INNER CORE WOULD ARGUE AGAINST
SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...THE
SHIPS RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDEX SHOWS A SIGNIFICANTLY HIGH
PROBABILITY OF A 25 TO 30 KT INCREASE IN INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. THEREFORE THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS ABOVE MOST OF
THE GUIDANCE AND NOW SHOWS ARLENE APPROACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH AT
LANDFALL. BASED ON THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST...A HURRICANE WATCH
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO.