I was looking at TS and hurricane impacts for Klotzbach's analog years (1955, 1996, 1999 and 2008). He listed 2006 as a spring analog, but 2006 went El Nino during the season so he doesn't think 2006 will be a good analog for 2011.
What I plotted below is all hurricane landfalls for 1955, 1996, 1999 and 2008. Some storms made multiple landfalls, so each is indicated. Note the lack of landfalls in Florida, with the exception of Irene in 1999. Even when I plotted TS impacts, there were very few in Florida in the analog years.
An examination of the data reveals a general track pattern that is common in the analog years. The pattern appears to be one set that moves across the NE Caribbean then heads for the Bahamas and the Carolinas. The second path is similar to start with, but continues westward toward the Yucatan Channel then WNW toward either Mexico or south Texas.
The pattern is suggestive of a high pressure area over the central U.S. with a trof in the eastern U.S. It's actually somewhat close to the 2010 pattern, but with a weaker ridge over the U.S. and a stronger Bermuda High. The effect would be to increase the risk of a landfall in the NE Caribbean, the Carolinas, and the western Gulf, as indicated in my graphic below. I don't see the heightened risk to Florida indicated in any of the analog years - UNLESS the Bermuda high is even stronger. Think 1999's Floyd turning north a few hundred miles farther west.
