Page 2 of 79

Re: January 2024

Posted: Thu Dec 28, 2023 5:30 pm
by Cpv17
I never heard of anything interesting happening in 1973 so that’s news for me.

Re: January 2024

Posted: Thu Dec 28, 2023 6:19 pm
by DoctorMu
Cpv17 wrote: Thu Dec 28, 2023 3:43 pm I’d recommend watching Pow Ponders video today. Pretty good update.

Here it is:

https://youtu.be/fzB3hUqAWtQ?si=yb3iT_Y185xiC_vt
4-11th has the cold air in place with SSW unleashing the polar vortex like 2021. NAO and AO plunging together. It could take time to amplify. We need some snowpack north of us, which was at a 20 year low before the CO, KS, NE, SD blizzard.

Potentially a tasty set up for wintry mischief in mid and late January.

Re: January 2024

Posted: Thu Dec 28, 2023 6:26 pm
by Stratton20
18z GEFS is trending even colder, im loving it!

Re: January 2024

Posted: Thu Dec 28, 2023 6:45 pm
by tireman4
Cpv17 wrote: Thu Dec 28, 2023 5:30 pm I never heard of anything interesting happening in 1973 so that’s news for me.
It snowed twice in January and once in February, if memory serves

Re: January 2024

Posted: Thu Dec 28, 2023 7:10 pm
by Cpv17
tireman4 wrote: Thu Dec 28, 2023 6:45 pm
Cpv17 wrote: Thu Dec 28, 2023 5:30 pm I never heard of anything interesting happening in 1973 so that’s news for me.
It snowed twice in January and once in February, if memory serves
A winter where it snowed 3 times? That’s bananas! I’ve only seen snow here in Wharton County 3 times in my entire life lol (04,09,17). All 3 snow events happened in December, with the 09 and 17 events being early December. I’m thinking there’s a correlation between active hurricane seasons and December snows.

Re: January 2024

Posted: Thu Dec 28, 2023 7:49 pm
by tireman4
Cpv17 wrote: Thu Dec 28, 2023 7:10 pm
tireman4 wrote: Thu Dec 28, 2023 6:45 pm
Cpv17 wrote: Thu Dec 28, 2023 5:30 pm I never heard of anything interesting happening in 1973 so that’s news for me.
It snowed twice in January and once in February, if memory serves
A winter where it snowed 3 times? That’s bananas! I’ve only seen snow here in Wharton County 3 times in my entire life lol (04,09,17). All 3 snow events happened in December, with the 09 and 17 events being early December. I’m thinking there’s a correlation between active hurricane seasons and December snows.
Yes, it did. We lived in La Marque at the time. I remember it very well for I was 7 at the time and there are pictures to prove it. Lol

Re: January 2024

Posted: Thu Dec 28, 2023 8:14 pm
by Cpv17
tireman4 wrote: Thu Dec 28, 2023 7:49 pm
Cpv17 wrote: Thu Dec 28, 2023 7:10 pm
tireman4 wrote: Thu Dec 28, 2023 6:45 pm

It snowed twice in January and once in February, if memory serves
A winter where it snowed 3 times? That’s bananas! I’ve only seen snow here in Wharton County 3 times in my entire life lol (04,09,17). All 3 snow events happened in December, with the 09 and 17 events being early December. I’m thinking there’s a correlation between active hurricane seasons and December snows.
Yes, it did. We lived in La Marque at the time. I remember it very well for I was 7 at the time and there are pictures to prove it. Lol
I think those good winters like that are over with.

Re: January 2024

Posted: Thu Dec 28, 2023 8:42 pm
by Cpv17
Stratton20 wrote: Thu Dec 28, 2023 6:26 pm 18z GEFS is trending even colder, im loving it!
It does seem like it’s loading up some cold in western and central Canada but it doesn’t look too cold yet down here but overall I don’t see too much above normal temps.

Re: January 2024

Posted: Thu Dec 28, 2023 8:58 pm
by MontgomeryCoWx
Cpv17 wrote: Thu Dec 28, 2023 8:14 pm
tireman4 wrote: Thu Dec 28, 2023 7:49 pm
Cpv17 wrote: Thu Dec 28, 2023 7:10 pm

A winter where it snowed 3 times? That’s bananas! I’ve only seen snow here in Wharton County 3 times in my entire life lol (04,09,17). All 3 snow events happened in December, with the 09 and 17 events being early December. I’m thinking there’s a correlation between active hurricane seasons and December snows.
Yes, it did. We lived in La Marque at the time. I remember it very well for I was 7 at the time and there are pictures to prove it. Lol
I think those good winters like that are over with.
Well they were never common to begin with, but 2013 or 2014 (I can’t remember) had several winter events here.

Since recorded history started, SETX may average 2-3 winter storms a DECADE.

This past decade has been way above normal. WAYYYY above. I actually think we are more prone to them now than before.

Re: January 2024

Posted: Thu Dec 28, 2023 9:05 pm
by Stratton20
With an active SJT, I would not be surprised to see multiple southern sliders with this up upcoming pattern , lets hope for a big one!

Re: January 2024

Posted: Thu Dec 28, 2023 9:15 pm
by Cpv17
MontgomeryCoWx wrote: Thu Dec 28, 2023 8:58 pm
Cpv17 wrote: Thu Dec 28, 2023 8:14 pm
tireman4 wrote: Thu Dec 28, 2023 7:49 pm

Yes, it did. We lived in La Marque at the time. I remember it very well for I was 7 at the time and there are pictures to prove it. Lol
I think those good winters like that are over with.
Well they were never common to begin with, but 2013 or 2014 (I can’t remember) had several winter events here.

Since recorded history started, SETX may average 2-3 winter storms a DECADE.

This past decade has been way above normal. WAYYYY above. I actually think we are more prone to them now than before.
Well they don’t come to Wharton County lol I believe I’m too far south.

Re: January 2024

Posted: Thu Dec 28, 2023 11:11 pm
by don
Cpv17 wrote: Thu Dec 28, 2023 9:15 pm
MontgomeryCoWx wrote: Thu Dec 28, 2023 8:58 pm
Cpv17 wrote: Thu Dec 28, 2023 8:14 pm

I think those good winters like that are over with.
Well they were never common to begin with, but 2013 or 2014 (I can’t remember) had several winter events here.

Since recorded history started, SETX may average 2-3 winter storms a DECADE.

This past decade has been way above normal. WAYYYY above. I actually think we are more prone to them now than before.
Well they don’t come to Wharton County lol I believe I’m too far south.
I've personally seen snow here in Harris County 7 times since 2008.Not including the years before that. It snowed several times in 2014.With a moderate ice storm in March that year also. There were thunderstorms with an inch of rain falling overnight, most of that felled with temps hovering around 32F.Ice accumulations would have been much higher if temps had dropped a degree or two lower than they did.

A lot of the winter events over the last 15 years have been along and north of I-10.But there have been several events with frozen precip all the way to the coast also. The coastal counties are always the last areas to transition from liquid to frozen precip during winter wx events though. Due to being closer to the Gulf.

Re: January 2024

Posted: Thu Dec 28, 2023 11:28 pm
by don
I still think nothing has yet to top the 1997 multi day ice storm at least in recent history . Specifically when it comes to direct impacts and ice accumulation it's still the biggest winter storm we've seen in the last 30 years in SE Texas.

Re: January 2024

Posted: Fri Dec 29, 2023 2:05 am
by DoctorMu
don wrote: Thu Dec 28, 2023 11:28 pm I still think nothing has yet to top the 1997 multi day ice storm at least in recent history . Specifically when it comes to direct impacts and ice accumulation it's still the biggest winter storm we've seen in the last 30 years in SE Texas.
The 2004 Christmas Eve Miracle (see avatar) and the 5-6 inches of snow and ice in the Feb 2021 winter storm with double nickel nighttime lows in CLL rate pretty high. for me

Before 2008 we had very little snow and a couple of ice storms. The 1997 ice storm sticks out because I was one of the few then brave enough to drive on ice. Today, every idiot in town would be out and slipping and sliding because they use they gas and break pedal too much. Good tires and coasting on low gear are the way.

Our kids never saw snow until a trip to Colorado in May 2007! Since then, I think we've had 8 measurable snow storms. The upcoming SSW could set the stage - we still need a LOT of luck to get snow.

Re: January 2024

Posted: Fri Dec 29, 2023 4:12 am
by biggerbyte
I remember the snow of 1973 very well. My leg was broken, so playing in it was a disappointing no go at the young age of 10.

Re: January 2024

Posted: Fri Dec 29, 2023 9:32 am
by MontgomeryCoWx
Cosgrove speaking in almost certain absolutes that the Arctic and Southern Jet link up in the 2nd/3rd weeks of January and stay pretty much in tune until March.

That would be 1973 folks.

Re: January 2024

Posted: Fri Dec 29, 2023 9:55 am
by sambucol
Cosgrove has been consistent in his outlook for a while.

Re: January 2024

Posted: Fri Dec 29, 2023 10:00 am
by Harp1
Yes, he seems very certain in his outlook. Very encouraging.

Re: January 2024

Posted: Fri Dec 29, 2023 11:33 am
by DoctorMu
If we can get some snowpack north of us by mid-January...

Image

Re: January 2024

Posted: Fri Dec 29, 2023 11:56 am
by Cpv17
The models are active over southeast Texas with quite a few opportunities for rain over the next couple weeks. Looks really promising!