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DoctorMu wrote: ↑Mon Jun 19, 2023 4:54 pm Behind Bret. Bret's headed to the Caribbean, which seems hostile for now for development.

Geez, that is one huge area of unfavorable conditions.

The tropics looks to be heating up early on. In all place, the Eastern Atlantic.

The SHIPS model has Bret possibly undergoing rapid intensification.

Ptarmigan wrote: ↑Mon Jun 19, 2023 9:12 pm The tropics looks to be heating up early on. In all place, the Eastern Atlantic.

The SHIPS model has Bret possibly undergoing rapid intensification.

For a deep Atlantic storm…..in June…..aye aye aye.

Matt Lanza thinks the sheer will kill it.

Bret....

Temps in the MDR have been cooling off a bit over the past couple weeks and are expected to keep cooling off over the next couple weeks. This would probably allow for more westerly tracks. The Atlantic is expected to enter a lull in activity over much of July and will hand the keys over to the EPAC until late July and August could go gangbusters over the Atlantic.

Cpv17 im hearing that Kelvin waves are going to dominate when our side of the basin gets active

Temps in the Gulf are generally running about 84-87°F.

There’s been a good bit of warming in the Gulf this week.

Yep
Also i dont expect activity to pick up in the atlantic until probably after the 2nd week of july, right now the switch is on a n the oacific basin

Stratton20 wrote: ↑Fri Jun 30, 2023 2:15 pm Yep
Also i dont expect activity to pick up in the atlantic until probably after the 2nd week of july, right now the switch is on a n the oacific basin

The energy went to the East Pacific.

Ptarmigan wrote: ↑Fri Jun 30, 2023 9:45 pm

Stratton20 wrote: ↑Fri Jun 30, 2023 2:15 pm Yep
Also i dont expect activity to pick up in the atlantic until probably after the 2nd week of july, right now the switch is on a n the oacific basin

The energy went to the East Pacific.

Maybe it’s just me but it seems like storms have a lot easier time developing in the EPAC compared to the Atlantic.

Cpv17 i have to agree, it seems like the EPAC never has high wind shear or much dry air for these waves to contend with

Pretty decent ensemble support for some tropical development in the GOM mid month (10-15th time frame) we will see about that

Geez, some parts of the Gulf are now 90°F.

Stratton20 wrote: ↑Fri Jun 30, 2023 10:51 pm Cpv17 i have to agree, it seems like the EPAC never has high wind shear or much dry air for these waves to contend with

I mentioned this exact thing summer of last year, during the middle of that dry spell: Gulf of Mexico is a useless, dead ocean. Can't produce squat, even with all that warm bathwater — granted, the GOM does have the challenges of constant mid-latitude intrusions which scour moisture away up the East Coast, as well as SALs coming off across the Atlantic that can cap things, but still...

Cpv17 wrote: ↑Fri Jun 30, 2023 10:47 pm

Ptarmigan wrote: ↑Fri Jun 30, 2023 9:45 pm

Stratton20 wrote: ↑Fri Jun 30, 2023 2:15 pm Yep
Also i dont expect activity to pick up in the atlantic until probably after the 2nd week of july, right now the switch is on a n the oacific basin

The energy went to the East Pacific.

Maybe it’s just me but it seems like storms have a lot easier time developing in the EPAC compared to the Atlantic.

On the other hand, the East Pacific is a smaller basin compared to Atlantic and West Pacific. East Pacific is an active area for sure.

Looks like the atlantic basin will be shut down until probably early august, definitely looks like a dead month in the tropics for our side of the basin

Stratton20 wrote: ↑Sat Jul 01, 2023 7:06 pm Looks like the atlantic basin will be shut down until probably early august, definitely looks like a dead month in the tropics for our side of the basin

July usually is.

It’s strange to me how there’s some cooler waters (as opposed to the rest of the Gulf) along the mid to lower coastline of TX. Not sure I’ve seen that before. Not really a big deal. Just thought it was interesting.

The euro and UKMET long range guidance are calling for a very busy atlantic hurricane season starting in August and beyond, even the university of colorado and several other offices have pretty aggressive predictions, this el nino will not be strong enough to suppress the atlantic, the switch is coming, alot of people are going to be fooled

Euro has an ACE total near 200