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The models sure do want to send Earl chasing Danielle. That very well may be the case. I guess my earlier statement holds, after all. Atlantic stays Atlantic. Home grown or bust, it looks to be.

Earl may surprise us as he gets closer, but the way things look today...

000
WTNT32 KNHC 262048
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EARL ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
500 PM AST THU AUG 26 2010

...EARL GETTING A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT MOVES WESTWARD
OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.2N 38.8W
ABOUT 1620 MI...2610 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

Still watching Earl. Indications this evening are that he should head further west due to the behavior of Danielle. How far west? The models still suggest a curve northward. If Earl makes it into the Caribbean, or especially the Gulf, it would be a big game changer as to where he would end up. Let's watch his progress for that turn as the islands come into play. The long term key is at this point in his journey.

Things with Earl are not as cut and dry at the moment, folks.

Impressive burst of convection tonight. Let's see if it persists. NHC is taking Earl to a Major in five days.

000
WTNT42 KNHC 271431
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
1100 AM AST FRI AUG 27 2010

THE OVERALL PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH DURING THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS. EARL CONTINUES TO HAVE A LARGE CIRCULATION...MODERATE BANDS
OF DEEP CONVECTION AND FAIR OUTFLOW. DVORAK SATELLITE ESTIMATES
STILL SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS. THE OCEAN AND THE
ATMOSPHERE APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION...AND THIS IS
REFLECTED IN THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE WHICH ARE ALL SHOWING
STRENGTHENING. IN FACT...BOTH GFDL AND HWRF ARE AGGRESSIVE IN
MAKING EARL AN INTENSE HURRICANE IN 5 DAYS. ACCORDINGLY...THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS EARL BECOMING A MAJOR HURRICANE BY THE END
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

EARL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 15 KNOTS EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE EASTERLY FLOW AROUND THE SOUTH SIDE OF A NARROW
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THEREAFTER...THE CYCLONE WILL BEGIN TO
APPROACH A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND SHOULD BEGIN TO
TURN MORE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST FOR
THE FIRST 48 HOURS SINCE THE STEERING CURRENTS ARE WELL
ESTABLISHED. ONCE THE CYCLONE BEGINS TO APPROACH 60 DEGREES WEST...
THE TRACK MODELS ARE IN LESS AGREEMENT AND THERE IS LESS CONFIDENCE
IN THE FORECAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN BETWEEN THE GFS AND
THE ECMWF AND IS A LITTLE BIT SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE.

A DEVIATION TO THE SOUTH OF THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK COULD BRING
EARL INTO THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. WITH THE WEEKEND
COMING...RESIDENTS IN THESE ISLANDS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF EARL.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 27/1500Z 15.7N 43.6W 40 KT
12HR VT 28/0000Z 15.8N 45.8W 45 KT
24HR VT 28/1200Z 16.3N 49.5W 50 KT
36HR VT 29/0000Z 16.8N 53.0W 60 KT
48HR VT 29/1200Z 17.5N 56.0W 70 KT
72HR VT 30/1200Z 18.8N 60.5W 80 KT
96HR VT 31/1200Z 21.5N 64.0W 90 KT
120HR VT 01/1200Z 25.0N 67.0W 100 KT

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

Poor Earl, his hat got blown off again. This had definitely been somewhat of an ugly ducking storm. It cant seem to organize into a more normal round shape and its convection keeps getting blown off. However I would think the longer he takes to organize and strengthen means more warm relatively undisturbed water for future Fiona to work with.
Also I am wondering if it takes longer than forecast to reach the expected strength will that cause more of a westward track in the longer term?

000
WTNT32 KNHC 272030
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EARL ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
500 PM AST FRI AUG 27 2010

...EARL RACING WESTWARD OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC WITH NO CHANGE IN
STRENGTH YET...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.8N 46.0W
ABOUT 1140 MI...1835 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...32 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
FRENCH SAINT MARTIN AND SAINT BARTHELEMY. THIS TROPICAL STORM WATCH
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 72 HOURS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FRENCH SAINT MARTIN AND SAINT BARTHELEMY

RESIDENTS IN THE REMAINDER OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EARL.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED
STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EARL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 46.0 WEST. EARL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. EARL IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY SUNDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM
TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

WTNT32 KNHC 272335
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 10A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
800 PM AST FRI AUG 27 2010

...EARL MOVING QUICKLY WESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.9N 46.9W
ABOUT 1080 MI...1735 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...32 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

000
WTNT32 KNHC 281140
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 12A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
800 AM AST SAT AUG 28 2010

...EARL CONTINUES HEADING WESTWARD AT A GOOD CLIP...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.8N 51.2W
ABOUT 800 MI...1290 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SAINT MARTIN AND SAINT BARTHELEMY
* ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...AND ANGUILLA
* ST. MAARTEN...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS

I honestly believe that the eastern Caribbean and Florida will need to keep a close watch on this system. Earl continues on a western track and continues to not intensify much. That is what I am concerned about because the weakness created by Danielle will not be felt Earl if it continues to stay this far south and weak. The models continue to shift west and I do not see this stopping anytime soon. So it should be interesting to watch Earl and see where it goes.

Andrew wrote:I honestly believe that the eastern Caribbean and Florida will need to keep a close watch on this system. Earl continues on a western track and continues to not intensify much. That is what I am concerned about because the weakness created by Danielle will not be felt Earl if it continues to stay this far south and weak. The models continue to shift west and I do not see this stopping anytime soon. So it should be interesting to watch Earl and see where it goes.

This is what I have been wondering about with Earl. It cant seem to get it self very well organized. Every few hours it seems like the center pops out from under the convection. If it cant stack itself it wont get pulled by the higher level steering currents. I haven't seen it in the discussions but it seems like Earl is behind schedule with its strengthening which I also believe will send it farther west before it gets pulled north.

Recon found the central pressure of Earl to be at 983 millibars, which is quite low for a tropical storm. Must be in an area of lower ambient pressure.

http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/recon/a ... uct=URNT15

000
WTNT32 KNHC 282349
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 14A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
800 PM AST SAT AUG 28 2010

...EARL HEADING TOWARD THE LEEWARD ISLANDS IN A HURRY...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.5N 54.6W
ABOUT 570 MI...920 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...105 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...34 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.20 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
SAINT MARTIN AND SAINT BARTHELEMY.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...AND ANGUILLA
* ST. MAARTEN...SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS
* SAINT MARTIN AND SAINT BARTHELEMY

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* THE PUERTO RICO ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES

The LLC has tucked back under the convection and might be even farther south now where all the strong convection is. It is still heading west at a steady clip and if this keeps up it will get to the islands by tomorrow. The models since the beginning have been indicating a turn to the north but that has yet to happen at all. With the speed of this storm it could really throw off the models. Hopefully the new data that will be introduced to the models during the 00z run will help determine how strong the ridge is and how much of a curve this storm will take.

Andrew mentioned data. RECON has a awful lot of assets scheduled for Earl...

000
NOUS42 KNHC 281500
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1100 AM EDT SAT 28 AUGUST 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 29/1100Z TO 30/1100Z AUGUST 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-089

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL STORM EARL
FLIGHT ONE -- NOAA 49
A. 30/0000Z
B. NOAA9 0307A EARL
C. 29/1730Z
D. NA
E. NA
F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 71
A. 30/0000,0600Z
B. AFXXX 0407A EARL
C. 29/2230Z
D. 17.8N 60.0W
E. 29/2330Z TO 30/0600Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

FLIGHT THREE -- TEAL 72
A. 30/1200,1800Z
B. AFXXX 0507A EARL
C. 30/1045Z
D. 18.7N 62.0W
E. 30/1130Z TO 30/1800Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES.
3. REMARKS:
A. NOAA P-3'S WILL CONTINUE A SERIES OF RESEARCH
MISSIONS INTO EARL. TAKEOFFS AT 29/0800Z,
29/2000Z AND 30/0800Z. FLOWN AT 12,000 FT.
B. NASA DC-8 WILL DO RESEARCH INTO EARL DEPARTING
TISX AT 29/1400Z. FLIGHT LVL 32,000 TO 39,000 FT.

Yea srain should really help with the models tonight especially with the ridge to the north. I can't wait for the runs to come out.

It will probably take several cycles of data input from missions to settle the GFS down. There have been some interesting runs to say the least over the past couple of days. With that said, the 12Z seemed to have the right 'idea' today regarding the track.

srainhoutx wrote:It will probably take several cycles of data input from missions to settle the GFS down. There have been some interesting runs to say the least over the past couple of days. With that said, the 12Z seemed to have the right 'idea' today regarding the track.

Yea prob so but hopefully we should get a better idea of what is going to happen. Looks pretty good right now:

FWIW Nam is farther west and south in 42hours: