Re: TD 6 Eastern Atlantic
Posted: Sat Aug 21, 2010 4:56 pm
Looks to be a large and intense hurricane. I think a Category 3-4 is likely.
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Hurricane Danielle Western Atlantic
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Re: TD 6 Central Atlantic
Posted: Sat Aug 21, 2010 7:01 pm
18Z HWRF...
Re: TD 6 Central Atlantic
Posted: Sat Aug 21, 2010 7:19 pm
Showing some rotation and seems to still be moving west.
Re: TD 6 Central Atlantic
Posted: Sat Aug 21, 2010 7:42 pm
Hmmm...
Code: Select all
1 KWBC 220028
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0028 UTC SUN AUG 22 2010
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE SIX (AL062010) 20100822 0000 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
100822 0000 100822 1200 100823 0000 100823 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 11.2N 32.3W 11.8N 33.4W 13.0N 34.7W 14.6N 36.9W
BAMD 11.2N 32.3W 11.9N 33.9W 12.6N 35.6W 13.5N 37.5W
BAMM 11.2N 32.3W 11.9N 33.7W 13.0N 35.2W 14.4N 37.5W
LBAR 11.2N 32.3W 11.8N 34.5W 12.7N 37.4W 13.4N 40.8W
SHIP 25KTS 30KTS 38KTS 49KTS
DSHP 25KTS 30KTS 38KTS 49KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
100824 0000 100825 0000 100826 0000 100827 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 16.5N 40.1W 20.0N 47.9W 21.1N 54.2W 21.2N 56.5W
BAMD 14.7N 39.7W 18.6N 44.2W 23.4N 48.2W 27.8N 50.5W
BAMM 16.1N 40.4W 19.7N 47.1W 21.8N 52.5W 23.2N 55.3W
LBAR 14.1N 44.4W 15.7N 51.0W 17.2N 54.4W 25.1N 55.3W
SHIP 60KTS 78KTS 84KTS 84KTS
DSHP 60KTS 78KTS 84KTS 84KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.2N LONCUR = 32.3W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR = 7KT
LATM12 = 10.6N LONM12 = 31.0W DIRM12 = 282DEG SPDM12 = 8KT
LATM24 = 10.4N LONM24 = 29.6W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 75NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 300NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
Re: TD 6 Central Atlantic
Posted: Sat Aug 21, 2010 7:51 pm
Yea Srain I don't really believe it is moving 290 degrees. Maybe the center was located at the wrong point initially.
Re: TD 6 Central Atlantic
Posted: Sat Aug 21, 2010 9:55 pm
Good night folks. Some interesting nights ahead...
000
WTNT41 KNHC 220243
TCDAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062010
1100 PM AST SAT AUG 21 2010
CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE AND A 2202 UTC SSMIS MICROWAVE OVERPASS SHOW
IMPROVED CURVED BANDING...PARTICULARLY OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF
THE CYCLONE. ALTHOUGH DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS A BIT LIMITED OVER
THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE...A 2300 UTC ASCAT PASS INDICATED A MORE
SYMMETRIC CIRCULATION THAN EARLIER NOTED...AND BELIEVABLE 25 KT
WINDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. OUTFLOW OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
AREA OF THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE IMPROVING AND HAS BECOME MORE
DIFFLUENT. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 2.0
AND 1.5 RESPECTIVELY. BASED ON THE PREMISE THAT THE WINDS ARE
PROBABLY A LITTLE STRONGER IN THE CONVECTIVE BANDING TO THE WEST
AND NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ADJUSTED UP
TO 30 KT.
THE CYCLONE SHOULD GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN AS IT REMAINS OVER WARM SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND WITHIN A RELATIVELY LOW NORTHEASTERLY
SHEAR ENVIRONMENT DURING...AT LEAST FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS. THE SHIPS
AND THE GFDL CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM WILL BECOME A
HURRICANE WITHIN 3 DAYS...AND THIS IS ALSO INDICATED IN THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST. THROUGH THE REMAINING PERIOD...INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED OVER THE TRACK IN RESPONSE TO A MID
TO UPPER TROUGH MOVING OFF OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD AROUND DAY 5.
SUBSEQUENTLY...THE INTENSITY FORECAST INDICATES ONLY MODEST
STRENGTHENING DURING THIS TIME-FRAME.
THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...OR...290/7. THE DEEP
TRADES ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE
DEPRESSION NOW APPEAR TO BE THE MORE DOMINANT STEERING
MECHANISM...WITH LESS OF AN INFLUENCE FROM THE SOUTHWESTERLY
MONSOONAL FLOW. DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
RIDGE STEERING THE CYCLONE IN A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGH
DAY 3. AFTERWARD...A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS INDICATED IN THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST AS A DEEP-LAYER MID-LATITUDE TROUGH MOVES OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND BREAKS DOWN THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY...AND IS BASED ON THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 22/0300Z 11.3N 32.6W 30 KT
12HR VT 22/1200Z 12.0N 33.9W 35 KT
24HR VT 23/0000Z 12.9N 36.0W 40 KT
36HR VT 23/1200Z 13.8N 38.4W 50 KT
48HR VT 24/0000Z 14.7N 41.3W 60 KT
72HR VT 25/0000Z 18.0N 47.0W 80 KT
96HR VT 26/0000Z 21.5N 51.5W 90 KT
120HR VT 27/0000Z 25.0N 55.0W 95 KT
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN
000
WTNT41 KNHC 220243
TCDAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062010
1100 PM AST SAT AUG 21 2010
CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE AND A 2202 UTC SSMIS MICROWAVE OVERPASS SHOW
IMPROVED CURVED BANDING...PARTICULARLY OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF
THE CYCLONE. ALTHOUGH DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS A BIT LIMITED OVER
THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE...A 2300 UTC ASCAT PASS INDICATED A MORE
SYMMETRIC CIRCULATION THAN EARLIER NOTED...AND BELIEVABLE 25 KT
WINDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. OUTFLOW OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
AREA OF THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE IMPROVING AND HAS BECOME MORE
DIFFLUENT. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 2.0
AND 1.5 RESPECTIVELY. BASED ON THE PREMISE THAT THE WINDS ARE
PROBABLY A LITTLE STRONGER IN THE CONVECTIVE BANDING TO THE WEST
AND NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ADJUSTED UP
TO 30 KT.
THE CYCLONE SHOULD GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN AS IT REMAINS OVER WARM SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND WITHIN A RELATIVELY LOW NORTHEASTERLY
SHEAR ENVIRONMENT DURING...AT LEAST FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS. THE SHIPS
AND THE GFDL CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM WILL BECOME A
HURRICANE WITHIN 3 DAYS...AND THIS IS ALSO INDICATED IN THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST. THROUGH THE REMAINING PERIOD...INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED OVER THE TRACK IN RESPONSE TO A MID
TO UPPER TROUGH MOVING OFF OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD AROUND DAY 5.
SUBSEQUENTLY...THE INTENSITY FORECAST INDICATES ONLY MODEST
STRENGTHENING DURING THIS TIME-FRAME.
THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...OR...290/7. THE DEEP
TRADES ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE
DEPRESSION NOW APPEAR TO BE THE MORE DOMINANT STEERING
MECHANISM...WITH LESS OF AN INFLUENCE FROM THE SOUTHWESTERLY
MONSOONAL FLOW. DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
RIDGE STEERING THE CYCLONE IN A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGH
DAY 3. AFTERWARD...A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS INDICATED IN THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST AS A DEEP-LAYER MID-LATITUDE TROUGH MOVES OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND BREAKS DOWN THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY...AND IS BASED ON THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 22/0300Z 11.3N 32.6W 30 KT
12HR VT 22/1200Z 12.0N 33.9W 35 KT
24HR VT 23/0000Z 12.9N 36.0W 40 KT
36HR VT 23/1200Z 13.8N 38.4W 50 KT
48HR VT 24/0000Z 14.7N 41.3W 60 KT
72HR VT 25/0000Z 18.0N 47.0W 80 KT
96HR VT 26/0000Z 21.5N 51.5W 90 KT
120HR VT 27/0000Z 25.0N 55.0W 95 KT
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN
Re: TD 6 Central Atlantic
Posted: Sun Aug 22, 2010 9:12 am
Looking a bit better, but shear has exposed the center of circulation...
RECENT CENTER FIXES ARE A BIT UNCERTAIN GIVEN A LACK OF MICROWAVE
DATA BUT YIELD AN INITIAL MOTION OF 295/08...A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT
AND FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ESTIMATE. A DEEP LAYER EAST-
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SHOULD STEER THE
CYCLONE ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD COURSE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS...WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR 27N41W THAT IS FORECAST BY
THE GLOBAL MODELS TO MOVE SOUTHWEST AND CAUSE A DEVELOPING WEAKNESS
IN THE RIDGE BETWEEN 45-50W IN ABOUT 72 HOURS. THE WEAKNESS IN THE
RIDGE BECOMES MORE PRONOUNCED AS A LARGER MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO DIG OVER THE EAST CENTRAL ATLANTIC LATE IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD. MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOW A BIT MORE DIVERGENT BUT SHOWS THE
DEPRESSION MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD WITH A
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AS IT MOVES INTO THE WEAKNESS. THE
OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST TRACK IS SLOWED AT LATER FORECAST TIMES AS A
RESULT OF A SLOWER TREND IN THE GUIDANCE AND INCREASING MODEL
SPREAD.
SHIPS MODEL OUTPUT AND UW-CIMSS SHEAR ANALYSES INDICATE MODERATE
EAST-NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE CYCLONE...SEEMINGLY
CONFIRMED BY THE EXPOSED NATURE OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER.
HOWEVER...THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE AS THE DEPRESSION MOVES
OUT OF THE LOW-LEVEL MONSOONAL FLOW OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL
ATLANTIC. THE LOWER SHEAR ENVIRONMENT ALONG WITH INCREASING SSTS
SHOULD FAVOR A GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION...AND THE DEPRESSION IS
FORECAST TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH WITHIN 3 DAYS. THEREAFTER...
AN INCREASE IN SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH
THE DIGGING TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC COULD HAMPER FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION. THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST IS REDUCED ONLY
SLIGHTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AND
IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE LGEM STATISTICAL INTENSITY GUIDANCE.
RECENT CENTER FIXES ARE A BIT UNCERTAIN GIVEN A LACK OF MICROWAVE
DATA BUT YIELD AN INITIAL MOTION OF 295/08...A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT
AND FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ESTIMATE. A DEEP LAYER EAST-
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SHOULD STEER THE
CYCLONE ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD COURSE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS...WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR 27N41W THAT IS FORECAST BY
THE GLOBAL MODELS TO MOVE SOUTHWEST AND CAUSE A DEVELOPING WEAKNESS
IN THE RIDGE BETWEEN 45-50W IN ABOUT 72 HOURS. THE WEAKNESS IN THE
RIDGE BECOMES MORE PRONOUNCED AS A LARGER MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO DIG OVER THE EAST CENTRAL ATLANTIC LATE IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD. MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOW A BIT MORE DIVERGENT BUT SHOWS THE
DEPRESSION MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD WITH A
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AS IT MOVES INTO THE WEAKNESS. THE
OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST TRACK IS SLOWED AT LATER FORECAST TIMES AS A
RESULT OF A SLOWER TREND IN THE GUIDANCE AND INCREASING MODEL
SPREAD.
SHIPS MODEL OUTPUT AND UW-CIMSS SHEAR ANALYSES INDICATE MODERATE
EAST-NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE CYCLONE...SEEMINGLY
CONFIRMED BY THE EXPOSED NATURE OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER.
HOWEVER...THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE AS THE DEPRESSION MOVES
OUT OF THE LOW-LEVEL MONSOONAL FLOW OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL
ATLANTIC. THE LOWER SHEAR ENVIRONMENT ALONG WITH INCREASING SSTS
SHOULD FAVOR A GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION...AND THE DEPRESSION IS
FORECAST TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH WITHIN 3 DAYS. THEREAFTER...
AN INCREASE IN SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH
THE DIGGING TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC COULD HAMPER FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION. THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST IS REDUCED ONLY
SLIGHTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AND
IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE LGEM STATISTICAL INTENSITY GUIDANCE.
Re: TD 6 Central Atlantic
Posted: Sun Aug 22, 2010 10:10 am
000
WTNT41 KNHC 221452
TCDAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062010
1100 AM AST SUN AUG 22 2010
THE UPWARD TREND IN ORGANIZATION OF THE DEPRESSION APPEARS TO HAVE
STOPPED FOR THE TIME BEING. THE SYSTEM HAS A WELL-DEFINED
CENTER...BUT THE CIRCULATION IS A LITTLE STRETCHED FROM NORTHEAST
TO SOUTHWEST DUE TO ANOTHER DISTURBANCE LOCATED ABOUT 350 N MI TO
THE NORTHEAST. THIS HAS ALSO CAUSED THE CENTER TO MOVE ALMOST DUE
NORTH OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...PULLING IT FARTHER AWAY FROM THE
DEEP CONVECTION. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 30 KT AND 45 KT
FROM SAB AND TAFB...RESPECTIVELY...AND AN 1134 UTC ASCAT PASS
SHOWED A MAXIMUM OF 30 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE KEPT AT 30
KT SINCE THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN ORGANIZATION.
WITH THE RECENT NORTHWARD MOTION...THE SMOOTHED INITIAL MOTION IS
ROUGHLY 310/10. ONCE THE DEPRESSION ESCAPES THE INFLUENCE OF THE
DISTURBANCE TO ITS NORTHEAST...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED ALONG
26N SHOULD STEER THE CYCLONE GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH
INCREASING FORWARD SPEED THROUGH THE NEXT 72 HOURS. BY DAYS 4 AND
5 THERE IS GREATER UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK FORECAST DEPENDING ON
HOW THE MID-LATITUDE LONGWAVE PATTERN EVOLVES IN RELATION TO WHEN
THE DEPRESSION ACTUALLY BEGINS MOVING WESTWARD. THE GLOBAL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH NEAR 45W
BY DAY 4...WHICH SHOULD BE TOO FAR EAST TO INDUCE SIGNIFICANT
RECURVATURE. THIS PATTERN...HOWEVER...SHOULD CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO
SLOW DOWN A LITTLE BY DAYS 4 AND 5 AS IT BECOMES TRAPPED TO THE
SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED
A LITTLE SOUTH AND WEST BY DAY 5...VERY CLOSE TO THE GFS...GFDL
...AND HWRF MODELS...AND LIES A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE MODEL
CONSENSUS TVCN.
THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MODERATE
EAST-NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO...BUT
THEREAFTER THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT BECOMES MORE CONDUCIVE FOR
STRENGTHENING. HOWEVER...THE SYSTEM MAY STILL HAVE TO CONTEND WITH
DRY AND RELATIVELY STABLE AIR TO ITS NORTH AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC...AND MOST OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE NOW SHOWS A SLOWER
RATE OF INTENSIFICATION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED
DOWN A LITTLE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BUT IS STILL HIGHER THAN
EVERY INTENSITY MODEL AT DAY 5 EXCEPT FOR THE GFDL. BASED ON AN
EXPERIMENTAL INTENSITY PROBABILITY PRODUCT AT NHC...THE DEPRESSION
CURRENTLY HAS A 1 IN 5 CHANCE OF REACHING MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS AT
SOME POINT OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 22/1500Z 12.7N 34.1W 30 KT
12HR VT 23/0000Z 13.0N 35.6W 35 KT
24HR VT 23/1200Z 13.8N 38.1W 40 KT
36HR VT 24/0000Z 14.7N 40.8W 50 KT
48HR VT 24/1200Z 15.9N 43.7W 60 KT
72HR VT 25/1200Z 19.0N 49.0W 70 KT
96HR VT 26/1200Z 22.0N 53.0W 80 KT
120HR VT 27/1200Z 24.5N 56.0W 85 KT
$$
FORECASTER BERG
WTNT41 KNHC 221452
TCDAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062010
1100 AM AST SUN AUG 22 2010
THE UPWARD TREND IN ORGANIZATION OF THE DEPRESSION APPEARS TO HAVE
STOPPED FOR THE TIME BEING. THE SYSTEM HAS A WELL-DEFINED
CENTER...BUT THE CIRCULATION IS A LITTLE STRETCHED FROM NORTHEAST
TO SOUTHWEST DUE TO ANOTHER DISTURBANCE LOCATED ABOUT 350 N MI TO
THE NORTHEAST. THIS HAS ALSO CAUSED THE CENTER TO MOVE ALMOST DUE
NORTH OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...PULLING IT FARTHER AWAY FROM THE
DEEP CONVECTION. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 30 KT AND 45 KT
FROM SAB AND TAFB...RESPECTIVELY...AND AN 1134 UTC ASCAT PASS
SHOWED A MAXIMUM OF 30 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE KEPT AT 30
KT SINCE THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN ORGANIZATION.
WITH THE RECENT NORTHWARD MOTION...THE SMOOTHED INITIAL MOTION IS
ROUGHLY 310/10. ONCE THE DEPRESSION ESCAPES THE INFLUENCE OF THE
DISTURBANCE TO ITS NORTHEAST...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED ALONG
26N SHOULD STEER THE CYCLONE GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH
INCREASING FORWARD SPEED THROUGH THE NEXT 72 HOURS. BY DAYS 4 AND
5 THERE IS GREATER UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK FORECAST DEPENDING ON
HOW THE MID-LATITUDE LONGWAVE PATTERN EVOLVES IN RELATION TO WHEN
THE DEPRESSION ACTUALLY BEGINS MOVING WESTWARD. THE GLOBAL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH NEAR 45W
BY DAY 4...WHICH SHOULD BE TOO FAR EAST TO INDUCE SIGNIFICANT
RECURVATURE. THIS PATTERN...HOWEVER...SHOULD CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO
SLOW DOWN A LITTLE BY DAYS 4 AND 5 AS IT BECOMES TRAPPED TO THE
SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED
A LITTLE SOUTH AND WEST BY DAY 5...VERY CLOSE TO THE GFS...GFDL
...AND HWRF MODELS...AND LIES A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE MODEL
CONSENSUS TVCN.
THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MODERATE
EAST-NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO...BUT
THEREAFTER THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT BECOMES MORE CONDUCIVE FOR
STRENGTHENING. HOWEVER...THE SYSTEM MAY STILL HAVE TO CONTEND WITH
DRY AND RELATIVELY STABLE AIR TO ITS NORTH AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC...AND MOST OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE NOW SHOWS A SLOWER
RATE OF INTENSIFICATION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED
DOWN A LITTLE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BUT IS STILL HIGHER THAN
EVERY INTENSITY MODEL AT DAY 5 EXCEPT FOR THE GFDL. BASED ON AN
EXPERIMENTAL INTENSITY PROBABILITY PRODUCT AT NHC...THE DEPRESSION
CURRENTLY HAS A 1 IN 5 CHANCE OF REACHING MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS AT
SOME POINT OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 22/1500Z 12.7N 34.1W 30 KT
12HR VT 23/0000Z 13.0N 35.6W 35 KT
24HR VT 23/1200Z 13.8N 38.1W 40 KT
36HR VT 24/0000Z 14.7N 40.8W 50 KT
48HR VT 24/1200Z 15.9N 43.7W 60 KT
72HR VT 25/1200Z 19.0N 49.0W 70 KT
96HR VT 26/1200Z 22.0N 53.0W 80 KT
120HR VT 27/1200Z 24.5N 56.0W 85 KT
$$
FORECASTER BERG
Re: TD 6 Central Atlantic
Posted: Sun Aug 22, 2010 10:52 am
Latest visible loop indicates that the LLC is breaking off to the north while the convection is still heading off to the west. We could be looking at a center reformation real fast:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-vis.html
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-vis.html
Re: TD 6 Central Atlantic
Posted: Sun Aug 22, 2010 10:58 am
Not much change last night. TD6 is large, so it will probably take more time. I notice the LLC is breaking off too. I know with depression and storms, there could be multiple centers fighting each other to be the one.Andrew wrote:Latest visible loop indicates that the LLC is breaking off to the north while the convection is still heading off to the west. We could be looking at a center reformation real fast:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-vis.html
Re: TD 6 Central Atlantic
Posted: Sun Aug 22, 2010 2:07 pm
Looking a bit better as convection refires near the center...
Re: TD 6 Central Atlantic
Posted: Sun Aug 22, 2010 3:00 pm
WOW!
Re: TD 6 Central Atlantic
Posted: Sun Aug 22, 2010 3:14 pm
Code: Select all
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 22 AUG 2010 Time : 194500 UTC
Lat : 12:57:35 N Lon : 34:46:50 W
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.9 /1001.0mb/ 43.0kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.7 3.1 3.3Since the convection is wrapping around the LLC, I think Danielle is very likely already.
Re: TD 6 Central Atlantic
Posted: Sun Aug 22, 2010 3:53 pm
KHOU's Hurricane Center has already upgraded Tropical Depression 6 to Tropcial Storm Danielle as of 5p.m. EDT, just so you know. You might want to change the title of this subject, srainhoutx.
Re: TS Danielle Central Atlantic
Posted: Sun Aug 22, 2010 4:06 pm
Thanks for the reminder sleetstorm.
000
WTNT41 KNHC 222044
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062010
500 PM AST SUN AUG 22 2010
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS TO NEAR
-85C...HAVE RECENTLY FORMED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE CYCLONE...AND
THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS NOW EMBEDDED BENEATH THE CONVECTIVE CANOPY.
DVORAK FINAL T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE NOW BOTH 2.5...35
KT...AND THE MOST RECENT 3-HOUR AVERAGE ADT FROM UW-CIMSS IS 2.7.
THE DEPRESSION IS THEREFORE UPGRADED TO A 35-KT TROPICAL STORM.
GIVEN THE NORTHWARD MOVEMENT OF THE CENTER OF DANIELLE THROUGH MUCH
OF THE DAY...THE ESTIMATED INITIAL MOTION IS 310/10. HOWEVER...
RECENT SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER IS TURNING BACK
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM IS STEERED BY THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO ITS NORTH. A BREAK IN THE RIDGE BY DAY 3 COULD ALLOW THE
CYCLONE TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST...BUT DANIELLE IS EXPECTED TO
SLOW DOWN AS IT APPROACHES A NEW RIDGE TO ITS NORTH ON DAY 5. THE
NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
DURING THE FIRST 72 HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INITIAL POSITION...BUT
IT CONVERGES BACK WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST ON DAYS 4 AND 5. THERE
HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT SHIFT IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE SINCE THE LAST
ADVISORY...AND THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TVCN IS EXTREMELY CLOSE TO
OFCI.
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFDL...THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE HAS
CONTINUED TO SCALE BACK ON THE INTENSIFICATION OF THE CYCLONE.
SLOW STRENGTHENING IS ANTICIPATED FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
SINCE VERTICAL SHEAR IS CURRENTLY NOT IDEAL...AND SOME DRY AIR
APPEARS TO SURROUND THE SYSTEM. THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE SEEMS TO
SUGGEST THAT THE VERTICAL SHEAR COULD INCREASE AGAIN AFTER DAY
3...AND THE LGEM DOES NOT EVEN STRENGTHEN THE CYCLONE TO A HURRICANE
DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. FOR NOW...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST IS LEFT UNCHANGED OUT OF RESPECT FOR CONTINUITY.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 22/2100Z 13.4N 35.1W 35 KT
12HR VT 23/0600Z 14.0N 36.6W 35 KT
24HR VT 23/1800Z 14.9N 39.2W 40 KT
36HR VT 24/0600Z 16.0N 42.0W 50 KT
48HR VT 24/1800Z 17.3N 44.9W 60 KT
72HR VT 25/1800Z 20.0N 50.0W 70 KT
96HR VT 26/1800Z 23.0N 54.0W 75 KT
120HR VT 27/1800Z 25.5N 57.0W 85 KT
$$
FORECASTER BERG
000
WTNT41 KNHC 222044
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062010
500 PM AST SUN AUG 22 2010
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS TO NEAR
-85C...HAVE RECENTLY FORMED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE CYCLONE...AND
THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS NOW EMBEDDED BENEATH THE CONVECTIVE CANOPY.
DVORAK FINAL T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE NOW BOTH 2.5...35
KT...AND THE MOST RECENT 3-HOUR AVERAGE ADT FROM UW-CIMSS IS 2.7.
THE DEPRESSION IS THEREFORE UPGRADED TO A 35-KT TROPICAL STORM.
GIVEN THE NORTHWARD MOVEMENT OF THE CENTER OF DANIELLE THROUGH MUCH
OF THE DAY...THE ESTIMATED INITIAL MOTION IS 310/10. HOWEVER...
RECENT SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER IS TURNING BACK
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM IS STEERED BY THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO ITS NORTH. A BREAK IN THE RIDGE BY DAY 3 COULD ALLOW THE
CYCLONE TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST...BUT DANIELLE IS EXPECTED TO
SLOW DOWN AS IT APPROACHES A NEW RIDGE TO ITS NORTH ON DAY 5. THE
NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
DURING THE FIRST 72 HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INITIAL POSITION...BUT
IT CONVERGES BACK WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST ON DAYS 4 AND 5. THERE
HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT SHIFT IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE SINCE THE LAST
ADVISORY...AND THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TVCN IS EXTREMELY CLOSE TO
OFCI.
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFDL...THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE HAS
CONTINUED TO SCALE BACK ON THE INTENSIFICATION OF THE CYCLONE.
SLOW STRENGTHENING IS ANTICIPATED FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
SINCE VERTICAL SHEAR IS CURRENTLY NOT IDEAL...AND SOME DRY AIR
APPEARS TO SURROUND THE SYSTEM. THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE SEEMS TO
SUGGEST THAT THE VERTICAL SHEAR COULD INCREASE AGAIN AFTER DAY
3...AND THE LGEM DOES NOT EVEN STRENGTHEN THE CYCLONE TO A HURRICANE
DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. FOR NOW...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST IS LEFT UNCHANGED OUT OF RESPECT FOR CONTINUITY.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 22/2100Z 13.4N 35.1W 35 KT
12HR VT 23/0600Z 14.0N 36.6W 35 KT
24HR VT 23/1800Z 14.9N 39.2W 40 KT
36HR VT 24/0600Z 16.0N 42.0W 50 KT
48HR VT 24/1800Z 17.3N 44.9W 60 KT
72HR VT 25/1800Z 20.0N 50.0W 70 KT
96HR VT 26/1800Z 23.0N 54.0W 75 KT
120HR VT 27/1800Z 25.5N 57.0W 85 KT
$$
FORECASTER BERG
Re: TS Danielle Central Atlantic
Posted: Sun Aug 22, 2010 5:06 pm
Well, newbies, here we go again. This storm looks to be a no brainer where strength is concerned. You see how fast we went from wave to tropical storm. The next few days will bring some ups and downs, but the overall trend will show that everyone should pay attntion. As of this day, it appears that this will move out to sea. However, as with storms past that have proven today to be wrong as we enter a new day, no one is out of the woods just yet. Texas, all the way right to Bermuda, including the north east states really should check daily for the latest.
Re: TS Danielle Central Atlantic
Posted: Sun Aug 22, 2010 10:53 pm
Based on the satellite presentation, I think Danielle is undergoing rapid intensification. I think we could see Hurricane Danielle by tomorrow. I notice rapid intensification happens at night.
Re: TS Danielle Central Atlantic
Posted: Sun Aug 22, 2010 10:56 pm
-85ºC, that would be -114.6ºF which is, needless to say, extremely icy!srainhoutx wrote:Thanks for the reminder sleetstorm.
000
WTNT41 KNHC 222044
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062010
500 PM AST SUN AUG 22 2010
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS TO NEAR
-85C...HAVE RECENTLY FORMED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE CYCLONE...AND
THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS NOW EMBEDDED BENEATH THE CONVECTIVE CANOPY.
DVORAK FINAL T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE NOW BOTH 2.5...35
KT...AND THE MOST RECENT 3-HOUR AVERAGE ADT FROM UW-CIMSS IS 2.7.
THE DEPRESSION IS THEREFORE UPGRADED TO A 35-KT TROPICAL STORM.
GIVEN THE NORTHWARD MOVEMENT OF THE CENTER OF DANIELLE THROUGH MUCH
OF THE DAY...THE ESTIMATED INITIAL MOTION IS 310/10. HOWEVER...
RECENT SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER IS TURNING BACK
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM IS STEERED BY THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO ITS NORTH. A BREAK IN THE RIDGE BY DAY 3 COULD ALLOW THE
CYCLONE TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST...BUT DANIELLE IS EXPECTED TO
SLOW DOWN AS IT APPROACHES A NEW RIDGE TO ITS NORTH ON DAY 5. THE
NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
DURING THE FIRST 72 HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INITIAL POSITION...BUT
IT CONVERGES BACK WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST ON DAYS 4 AND 5. THERE
HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT SHIFT IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE SINCE THE LAST
ADVISORY...AND THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TVCN IS EXTREMELY CLOSE TO
OFCI.
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFDL...THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE HAS
CONTINUED TO SCALE BACK ON THE INTENSIFICATION OF THE CYCLONE.
SLOW STRENGTHENING IS ANTICIPATED FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
SINCE VERTICAL SHEAR IS CURRENTLY NOT IDEAL...AND SOME DRY AIR
APPEARS TO SURROUND THE SYSTEM. THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE SEEMS TO
SUGGEST THAT THE VERTICAL SHEAR COULD INCREASE AGAIN AFTER DAY
3...AND THE LGEM DOES NOT EVEN STRENGTHEN THE CYCLONE TO A HURRICANE
DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. FOR NOW...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST IS LEFT UNCHANGED OUT OF RESPECT FOR CONTINUITY.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 22/2100Z 13.4N 35.1W 35 KT
12HR VT 23/0600Z 14.0N 36.6W 35 KT
24HR VT 23/1800Z 14.9N 39.2W 40 KT
36HR VT 24/0600Z 16.0N 42.0W 50 KT
48HR VT 24/1800Z 17.3N 44.9W 60 KT
72HR VT 25/1800Z 20.0N 50.0W 70 KT
96HR VT 26/1800Z 23.0N 54.0W 75 KT
120HR VT 27/1800Z 25.5N 57.0W 85 KT
$$
FORECASTER BERG
WOW!By the way, my youngest sister's name is Danielle.
At least I think it is -114.6ºF. If any of you would not mind please check the math on that for I am not completely certain that is the right answer.
Re: TS Danielle Central Atlantic
Posted: Sun Aug 22, 2010 11:06 pm
That's cold! Most intense tropical cyclones have really cold cloud tops.
Re: TS Danielle Central Atlantic
Posted: Mon Aug 23, 2010 4:26 am
TROPICAL STORM DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062010
500 AM AST MON AUG 23 2010
DANIELLE HAS BEEN EXHIBITING A CLASSIC BURSTING PATTERN WITH CLOUD
TOP TEMPERATURES AS LOW AS -85C DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.
AMSR-E AND TRMM MICROWAVE IMAGERY FROM 0351 AND 0541 UTC...
RESPECTIVELY...CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THE CIRCULATION
CENTER LIES ON THE NORTHEAST EDGE OF THE CONVECTIVE CANOPY...
PERHAPS A LITTLE MORE UNDERNEATH THE MAIN CONVECTIVE MASS THAN
PREVIOUSLY NOTED. THE BURSTING PATTERN AND THE PLACEMENT OF THE
SURFACE CENTER SUGGESTS THAT DANIELLE CONTINUES TO UNDERGO EASTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR BUT POSSIBLY NOT AS MUCH BEFORE. DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 3.0 AND 4.0 FROM SAB AND TAFB...
RESPECTIVELY...AND 3-HOUR AVERAGE ADT VALUES ARE 3.4. USING A BLEND
OF THESE INTENSITY ESTIMATES...THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS RAISED
CONSERVATIVELY TO 50 KT.
THE MICROWAVE IMAGERY AND RECENT SATELLITE FIXES SUGGEST A
MOTION TO THE LEFT AND FASTER THAN PREVIOUS ESTIMATES...300/12.
GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE STORM ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC WHICH SHOULD KEEP DANIELLE ON A
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY COURSE WITH SOME FURTHER INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. THEREAFTER...THE GUIDANCE IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE CYCLONE WILL BEGIN TO ENCOUNTER A BREAK
IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BETWEEN 45-50W WHICH SHOULD BECOME MORE
PRONOUNCED AS A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH DIGS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
IN A FEW DAYS. THESE EVENTS SHOULD CAUSE DANIELLE TO TURN MORE
NORTHWESTWARD AND DECELERATE. TRACK MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE FAIRLY
TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AND HAVE SHIFTED EASTWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS
PACKAGE. THE OFFICIAL NHC TRACK FORECAST IS ADJUSTED EASTWARD AND
IS CLOSE TO...BUT NOT AS FAR EAST AS...THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062010
500 AM AST MON AUG 23 2010
DANIELLE HAS BEEN EXHIBITING A CLASSIC BURSTING PATTERN WITH CLOUD
TOP TEMPERATURES AS LOW AS -85C DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.
AMSR-E AND TRMM MICROWAVE IMAGERY FROM 0351 AND 0541 UTC...
RESPECTIVELY...CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THE CIRCULATION
CENTER LIES ON THE NORTHEAST EDGE OF THE CONVECTIVE CANOPY...
PERHAPS A LITTLE MORE UNDERNEATH THE MAIN CONVECTIVE MASS THAN
PREVIOUSLY NOTED. THE BURSTING PATTERN AND THE PLACEMENT OF THE
SURFACE CENTER SUGGESTS THAT DANIELLE CONTINUES TO UNDERGO EASTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR BUT POSSIBLY NOT AS MUCH BEFORE. DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 3.0 AND 4.0 FROM SAB AND TAFB...
RESPECTIVELY...AND 3-HOUR AVERAGE ADT VALUES ARE 3.4. USING A BLEND
OF THESE INTENSITY ESTIMATES...THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS RAISED
CONSERVATIVELY TO 50 KT.
THE MICROWAVE IMAGERY AND RECENT SATELLITE FIXES SUGGEST A
MOTION TO THE LEFT AND FASTER THAN PREVIOUS ESTIMATES...300/12.
GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE STORM ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC WHICH SHOULD KEEP DANIELLE ON A
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY COURSE WITH SOME FURTHER INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. THEREAFTER...THE GUIDANCE IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE CYCLONE WILL BEGIN TO ENCOUNTER A BREAK
IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BETWEEN 45-50W WHICH SHOULD BECOME MORE
PRONOUNCED AS A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH DIGS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
IN A FEW DAYS. THESE EVENTS SHOULD CAUSE DANIELLE TO TURN MORE
NORTHWESTWARD AND DECELERATE. TRACK MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE FAIRLY
TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AND HAVE SHIFTED EASTWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS
PACKAGE. THE OFFICIAL NHC TRACK FORECAST IS ADJUSTED EASTWARD AND
IS CLOSE TO...BUT NOT AS FAR EAST AS...THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.