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Re: Invest 97L forms on 7/19/2010
Posted: Mon Jul 19, 2010 12:53 pm
by Hardcoreweather
12Z CMC says I don't have to go far to intercept 97L
Re: Invest 97L forms on 7/19/2010
Posted: Mon Jul 19, 2010 1:36 pm
by srainhoutx
Code: Select all
260
WHXX01 KWBC 191819
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1819 UTC MON JUL 19 2010
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL972010) 20100719 1800 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
100719 1800 100720 0600 100720 1800 100721 0600
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 19.2N 65.1W 20.2N 68.8W 21.5N 72.4W 22.0N 75.8W
BAMD 19.2N 65.1W 19.8N 67.0W 20.4N 68.9W 20.8N 70.6W
BAMM 19.2N 65.1W 19.9N 67.5W 20.5N 69.9W 20.7N 72.2W
LBAR 19.2N 65.1W 19.7N 67.6W 20.2N 70.5W 20.8N 73.5W
SHIP 25KTS 30KTS 36KTS 42KTS
DSHP 25KTS 30KTS 36KTS 42KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
100721 1800 100722 1800 100723 1800 100724 1800
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 22.4N 79.0W 22.4N 85.6W 22.9N 91.4W 23.7N 95.9W
BAMD 21.1N 72.2W 21.8N 75.4W 22.3N 79.0W 23.7N 82.8W
BAMM 20.8N 74.4W 21.0N 78.4W 21.7N 82.1W 23.0N 85.4W
LBAR 21.4N 76.8W 22.8N 83.2W 24.7N 89.0W .0N .0W
SHIP 48KTS 60KTS 73KTS 82KTS
DSHP 48KTS 34KTS 50KTS 56KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 19.2N LONCUR = 65.1W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 12KT
LATM12 = 18.8N LONM12 = 62.7W DIRM12 = 282DEG SPDM12 = 13KT
LATM24 = 18.1N LONM24 = 60.1W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 75NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1014MB OUTPRS = 1017MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
Re: Invest 97L forms on 7/19/2010
Posted: Mon Jul 19, 2010 1:56 pm
by Hardcoreweather
ECMWF at 72 hrs
120HRS into LA
Re: Invest 97L forms on 7/19/2010
Posted: Mon Jul 19, 2010 2:11 pm
by Hardcoreweather
Re: Invest 97L forms on 7/19/2010
Posted: Mon Jul 19, 2010 2:26 pm
by Hardcoreweather
Re: Invest 97L forms on 7/19/2010
Posted: Mon Jul 19, 2010 2:56 pm
by srainhoutx
Keep an eye just NE of PR.
Re: Invest 97L forms on 7/19/2010
Posted: Mon Jul 19, 2010 3:03 pm
by srainhoutx
Ed Mahmoud wrote:
While previewing- Steve typed a new post and said to look NE of Puerto Rico, except everything East of the DR-Haiti border has been chopped...
Hi RES Vis Imagery...
http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=15
Re: Invest 97L forms on 7/19/2010
Posted: Mon Jul 19, 2010 3:06 pm
by Hardcoreweather
Re: Invest 97L forms on 7/19/2010
Posted: Mon Jul 19, 2010 3:11 pm
by srainhoutx
18Z Intensity Guidance suggest a Tropical Storm
Re: Invest 97L forms on 7/19/2010
Posted: Mon Jul 19, 2010 3:17 pm
by redfish1
Hardcoreweather wrote:
i may be wrong but isnt there supposed to be a high move in keeping it on a more westerly path???
Re: Invest 97L forms on 7/19/2010
Posted: Mon Jul 19, 2010 3:28 pm
by srainhoutx
San Juan Radar...long range
Shorter range
Re: Invest 97L forms on 7/19/2010
Posted: Mon Jul 19, 2010 4:05 pm
by srainhoutx
HGX thoughts...
WEEKEND WEATHER IS FORECAST TO BE MORE HOT AND RELATIVELY DRIER.
SLIGHT CHANCE WEEKEND POPS WITH DIURNAL EXTREME TEMPERATURES
INCREASING BY 2 TO 5 DEGREES FROM THURSDAY`S VALUES UNDER PARTLY
CLOUDY. OF NOTE...EURO WANTS TO BRING AN EASTERLY WAVE TO THE
TEXAS COAST BY SATURDAY WHILE GFS HOLDS OFF ON THIS IDEA UNTIL MON
OR TUE. IT APPEARS ENSEMBLE IS TILTING TOWARDS A MORE TRADITIONAL
LATE JULY PATTERN...WEAKER (FLATTENED) SOUTHERN PLAINS RIDGING...
INCREASED PROBABILITY OF THE HIGHER FREQUENCY OF EASTERN TROPICAL
WAVES/HIGHLY MOIST AIR MASSES HEADING INTO THE WESTERN GULF. 31
Re: Invest 97L forms on 7/19/2010
Posted: Mon Jul 19, 2010 4:32 pm
by Hardcoreweather
Re: Invest 97L forms on 7/19/2010
Posted: Mon Jul 19, 2010 4:57 pm
by Hardcoreweather
Re: Invest 97L forms on 7/19/2010
Posted: Mon Jul 19, 2010 5:01 pm
by Hardcoreweather
Re: Invest 97L forms on 7/19/2010
Posted: Mon Jul 19, 2010 5:15 pm
by srainhoutx
18Z Para GFS @ 60 Hrs...
Re: Invest 97L forms on 7/19/2010
Posted: Mon Jul 19, 2010 5:25 pm
by srainhoutx
114 hours...
Re: Invest 97L forms on 7/19/2010
Posted: Mon Jul 19, 2010 5:43 pm
by Hardcoreweather
HWRF @126hrs
Re: Invest 97L forms on 7/19/2010
Posted: Mon Jul 19, 2010 5:49 pm
by Scott747
So it doesn't confuse anyone.
That's the 6z run of the HWRF. There wasn't a 12z run and the 18z should be out in a few minutes.
Re: Invest 97L forms on 7/19/2010
Posted: Mon Jul 19, 2010 5:57 pm
by biggerbyte
In order for some of the suggested tracks to become valid, the ridge is going to have to weaken and move away quit a bit. A Texas, to Texas LA border makes more sense at this point. Everybody in the western gulf should watch this carefully.
