Wx Infinity Forums

96L models Have a great 4th

http://i508.photobucket.com/albums/s330 ... 744434.jpg

You were right ED!!
Now...Lets hope the "crazy Uncle" is not as right about it's path as you were about this being an invest by today.

EURO sees it and buries it in MX as a weak TS...need more model support though....I do think this will develope and become a TS....how big and bad remains to seen...

i dont think the models were initialized in the right spot

Have a Happy 4th of July Folks!


WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1045 AM EDT SUN 04 JULY 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 05/1100Z TO 06/1100Z JULY 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-034

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 05/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01BBA INVEST
C. 05/1500Z
D. 19.5N 86.0W
E. 05/1730Z TO 05/2200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: BEGIN 6-HRLY FIXES
AT 06/1800Z IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.

95L and 96L model runs

http://i508.photobucket.com/albums/s330 ... 41bd37.jpg

That wave of tropical showes and thunderstorms looks more healty than the one raining on the Lesser Antilles, in my opinion.

I would want to see rotation with that tropical wave prior calling it a depresion. Tonight or tomorrow might be telling.

96L is a go IMO..either tonight or tomorrow....aint going the way of Alex either...More WGOM- NGOM IMO....

we have been saying it over and over again...If you havent made preps yet the sooner the better.

Paul wrote:96L is a go IMO..either tonight or tomorrow....aint going the way of Alex either...More WGOM- NGOM IMO....

we have been saying it over and over again...If you havent made preps yet the sooner the better.

I'm with you on that Rock.The one behind it may be an issue later on.

Paul wrote:96L is a go IMO..either tonight or tomorrow....aint going the way of Alex either...More WGOM- NGOM IMO....

we have been saying it over and over again...If you havent made preps yet the sooner the better.

Why do you think 96L will be more WGOM-NGOM?

Don't even really pay attention to the operational GFS anymore. About go into the trash bin in a month or so.

Latest parallel GFS and HWRF take a weak system further N across the YP and into the Gulf and off the lower Texas coast by around day five. Misses much of the water impacted by Alex. No idea on intensity yet.

I expect models to start shifting to the right


HWRF 18z:

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN JUL 4 2010

A VIGOROUS TROPICAL DISTURBANCE LOCATED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. ALTHOUGH THERE DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE A CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION AT THIS TIME...NEARBY
SHIP AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS INDICATED WINDS OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
BRIEFLY OCCURRED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SYSTEM DURING THE PAST
FEW HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS DISTURBANCE AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
TO 15 MPH...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
GRAND CAYMAN ISLAND AND MUCH OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA OVER
THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

No surprise that the GFDL so far doesn't show anything with 96 yet. Both the GFDL and HWRF haven't had the best of starts for the tropical season.

This should be red in the next few TWO's.

18z NAM takes it into the middle Texas Coast FWIW

I am getting to the point where I dislike the new ops GFS...underdoing the intensity....not that I looked for that in this model but it does relate to track.....sticking with the EURO and CMC for now...

is this a possible upper texas or sw louisiana storm??

Red, any area in the GOM is game right now. Until we can pinpoint a center the models will be flippy......stay tuned...

for the record, I am not liking this one....