OCTOBER 2018 - Stormy Halloween

[srainhoutx]

Folks fretting over cool/cold weather on October 2nd need not worry too much. Cold/wintry weather is looking more and more likely as we get closer and closer to Thanksgiving and then December 1st. Some of the analogs I am inspecting as a possibility suggest we may see frequent bouts of cold and wintry mischief as Winter gets underway. Patience.

[unome]

wicked storm here, getting hail (pea size)

nice radar loop on this https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/exper/lsr/lsr.php

[BlueJay]

I'm hearing rumbles of thunder. We may get a taste of that wicked storm.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Folks fretting over cool/cold weather on October 2nd need not worry too much. Cold/wintry weather is looking more and more likely as we get closer and closer to Thanksgiving and then December 1st. Some of the analogs I am inspecting as a possibility suggest we may see frequent bouts of cold and wintry mischief as Winter gets underway. Patience.

Warms my heart to hear that!

[snowman65]

Folks fretting over cool/cold weather on October 2nd need not worry too much. Cold/wintry weather is looking more and more likely as we get closer and closer to Thanksgiving and then December 1st. Some of the analogs I am inspecting as a possibility suggest we may see frequent bouts of cold and wintry mischief as Winter gets underway. Patience.

Warms my heart to hear that!

The word "warm" is not allowed after Oct 1....

[CrashTestDummy]

Folks fretting over cool/cold weather on October 2nd need not worry too much. Cold/wintry weather is looking more and more likely as we get closer and closer to Thanksgiving and then December 1st. Some of the analogs I am inspecting as a possibility suggest we may see frequent bouts of cold and wintry mischief as Winter gets underway. Patience.

NO cold and wintry stuff!! We have citrus!!

[djmike]

Weve gone an entire day without one post. Must be a some pretty non-eventful weather over the next week or so.
ANY sight of a possible cool fromt any time soon?

[snowman65]

Weve gone an entire day without one post. Must be a some pretty non-eventful weather over the next week or so.
ANY sight of a possible cool fromt any time soon?

Well, we have had 2 straight days with no rain. Maybe everyones been outside..lol....BTW, we will be paying dearly for those 2 days at some point...

[srainhoutx]

Highly active weather period unfolding for the weekend into next week. A very deep Great Basin/Intermountain West Trough funneling deep tropical moisture from the Gulf and the NW Caribbean Sea where an area of tropical disturbed weather continues to fester. Currently the NHC gives the NW Caribbean disturbance a 30% chance of development over the next 5 Days. The overnight Ensemble guidance is becoming s bit more aggressive with some development in the Southern/Central Gulf of Mexico over the weekend into to next week as upper level winds relax and pressure falls across the Gulf. We typically are safe from any tropical troubles in the NW Gulf this late in the year, but with a stalled boundary to the N and a prolonged onshore flow as well as being on the Western periphery of the Big Mid Atlantic Ridge, we might want to monitor the weather in our backyard a bit more closely.

[tireman4]

To quote our own Long Range Pro Met, Srain, Climo will dictate in the end...fronts WILL come...

000
FXUS64 KHGX 041603
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1103 AM CDT Thu Oct 4 2018

.DISCUSSION...
Not a lot of changes with the forecast for the update. Things are
expected to pick up once again later this afternoon when we reach
convective temperatures. Activity could be scattered as given the
lack of a distinct boundary. Going grids look good. 41

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 444 AM CDT Thu Oct 4 2018/

High pressure ridge will continue to be the main feature today.
Like yesterday, very few isolated showers were observed moving
northward across the local waters. No rainfall was detected inland
during the night and early morning hours. A very similar weather
pattern from the previous days will occur today with showers
developing across the coastal counties during the late morning
hours and expand northwards towards the central counties in the
afternoon. Shower activity is expected to dissipate after sunset.

Although model guidance continues to show the high pressure
moving towards the Carolinas during the weekend, the displacement
is occuring at a slower pace. The 250-500MB Height model guidance
looks to have delayed the timing of the trough for SE TX. The
trough now shows amplification as it moves across the Great Basin
and Rockies by the end of the weekend into early next week and
digs more south expanding across SE TX around early to mid next
week. Because the displacement of the high pressure is fairly
slow, southerly flow is expected to entrain moisture from the
Gulf from this weekend through at least Tuesday. Guidance also
suggest, PWAT values ranging between 2.0-2.2 in (especially Tue),
good CAPE values (mainly the 18-00Z timeframe), as well as
positive moisture and temperature advection during this period. In
general, the overall weather dynamics supports the potential for
shower and thunderstorm activity across SE TX. Keep in mind, this
is at the end of the forecast period and variations to the model
will occur for the long term period.

Side Note: Some of the models are indicating an area of low
pressure or tropical disturbance moving northward across the Gulf
of Mexico by mid next week. At this time, the track and direct
impacts of this feature cannot be determined. Please continue to
monitor your local NWS forecast. For more information refer to
the TROPICS section below.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 90 73 88 73 88 / 20 10 30 0 40
Houston (IAH) 89 75 87 74 87 / 40 10 40 10 50
Galveston (GLS) 85 79 84 78 84 / 30 20 40 20 50

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 041734
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1234 PM CDT Thu Oct 4 2018

.AVIATION...
Starting to see some iso/sct showers and tstms develop along the
seabreeze which should be making its way further inland this
afternoon. Outside of any convection, VFR conditions are expected
to persist into the overnight hours. Like the past couple nights,
lower cigs (IFR) and patchy fog should develop again...generally
north and west of the metro airports late tonight...burning off
toward mid morning Fri. 47

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1103 AM CDT Thu Oct 4 2018/
Not a lot of changes with the forecast for the update. Things are
expected to pick up once again later this afternoon when we reach
convective temperatures. Activity could be scattered as given the
lack of a distinct boundary. Going grids look good. 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 90 73 88 73 88 / 20 10 30 0 40
Houston (IAH) 89 75 87 74 87 / 40 10 40 10 50
Galveston (GLS) 85 79 84 78 84 / 30 20 40 20 50

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

[Cpv17]

There doesn’t really appear to be any significant weather events across SETX anytime soon besides the possibility of a front mid next week. Most of the rain will be well north of us and east of us. I’m not sure why the rain chances are so high for the early part of next week. I don’t see anything that justifies having such high rain chances. Pretty boring weather pattern setting up over us if you ask me, but most of us would be happy with that after all the recent rains.

[DoctorMu]

Oppressive dew points for about 1 more week, allegedly per models, until a real taste of fall. I look forward to winter, but would like to experience some fall weather first.

Last year we literally had a day of Fall between hot, humid weather and the epic December snowfall.

[snowman65]

Sooooo....what's up with Michael (next named storm)?

[srainhoutx]

Sooooo....what's up with Michael (next named storm)?

A Very broad monsoonal gyre across the Western Caribbean across Central America extending into the Eastern Pacific with multiple vortices rotating around the broad area of lower pressure in that Region. The models suggest a highly sheared lopsided low pressure with heavy rainfall extending well East of whatever surface low forms...if it does. We could see some sinking drier air around E/SE Texas as the disturbance moves NW to N and eventually NE into the SE Louisiana/MS/AL Western Florida Region. Fingers crossed that the Upper trough shifts over Texas and brings some cooler drier air and shields us from any worries.

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI OCT 5 2018

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO:

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM LESLIE, LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED NEAR CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON THE EASTERN BORDER OF HONDURAS
AND NICARAGUA HAVE BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS. ALTHOUGH STRONG WINDS ALOFT ARE LOCATED JUST TO THE NORTH OF
THIS SYSTEM, THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE
ENOUGH TO ALLOW SLOW DEVELOPMENT, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD
FORM BY LATE THIS WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA OR SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WHILE THE SYSTEM MOVES
SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD. REGARDLESS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION,
THIS DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING TORRENTIAL RAINS PRIMARILY
TO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...30 PERCENT.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 5 DAYS...MEDIUM...60 PERCENT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[Cpv17]

After the next 3-4 days things appear to be drying out over our area.

[srainhoutx]

Oh look. Cooler weather on the way too...

[DoctorMu]

The initial front should if climo prevails put the breaks on Michael heading on a Texas vector.



The second front next weekend puts the hammer down.

[srainhoutx]

Enjoy the last vestiges of SE Texas Summer this weekend as changes are brewing as we enter the second week of October. INVEST 91L is attempting to organize as a weak surface low has developed just North of Bay Islands of Honduras in the NW Caribbean Sea. Wind shear is rather strong and should keep any development in check as the tropical disturbance drift slowly NW and then N over the weekend. A Strong Fall Frontal Boundary is currently located across portions of the Panhandle. Amarillo is currently 47F and Freeze/Frost Warnings are flying across Western/Central Nebraska. A very potent shortwave currently over Western Oregon/Idaho is dropping SE in the NW flow aloft and will deepen a digging Great Basin/Intermountain West upper trough as the weekend progresses. Another very potent upper air disturbance is diving SE across British Columbia this morning and will dig a very deep full latitude trough across the Intermountain West and the Plains as the work week begins. At this time it appears that 91L will not impact SE Texas or SW Louisiana, but we will continue to monitor for any unexpected changes. 91L or future Michael may play a role in our sensible weather by allowing a first surge of modified Canadian Air to filter into our Region Wednesday into Thursday as the tropical system passes off to our ESE and E. A much stronger Fall Front is penciled in for arrival Friday into Saturday. As of this morning, it appears that our Area may get that first legitimate taste of Fall Weather next Sunday with morning lows in the upper 40's to low 50's across SE Texas.

[Katdaddy]

Who is ready for the first real strong TX cold front? As much as I dislike cold weather.............unless it snows .......the first strong cold front is always refreshing and finishes off any late season NW GOM tropical threats for the season. For now, one more hot and humid weekend with a few scattered showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon.