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FXUS64 KHGX 311152
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
652 AM CDT Tue Jul 31 2018

.AVIATION [12Z TAF Issuance]...

Main concern going forward for the next 6 to 12 hours will be
TSRA. Latest radar shows another round of TSRA forming N to NE of
KUTS and then pushing SE with NW flow aloft. This activity seems
to be ahead of an upper leve trough axis stretching across north
Texas. Mesoscale models have not handled the evolution of
convection well so TAFs based on latest HRRR trends which will
likely change from run to run. This still brings TSRA south into
the Houston area around 17 to 21Z and then along the coast after
that in the evening. Timing of TSRA could be moved earlier
depending upon the evolution of current ongoing TSRA and any
further upscale development along the frontal boundary. Winds
should shift behind the front later this evening and tonight.
Overall MVFR ceilings are not expected as TSRA bases should be
higher than 3000 ft with gusty winds.

Overpeck

Meso and line of storms has formed east and north of Houston moving past Conroe. We had a welcome 0.67 in IMBY last night. North wind about 10 mph and line 2 is forming over us.

Any chance anything makes it into Houston proper and on down towards the coast? I just got back from vacation and need to mow badly.

Cromagnum wrote:Any chance anything makes it into Houston proper and on down towards the coast? I just got back from vacation and need to mow badly.

Nope. Looks like it's all going to be east of me. As usual.

I would retract that statement Cromagnum...

tireman4 wrote:I would retract that statement Cromagnum...

I'm on the southern 288 corridor. All of the rain is n Alvin and to the east /southeast. Unless it builds back to the NW, I'm going to miss out.

Edit: Yep, it built WAY to the west and to the South. I got completely dryslotted except for a little sprinkle shower.

ticka1 wrote:This month is usually the hottest month fir SE texas and usually see uptick in tropical action! Busy month with summer vacations winding down and kids and teachers going back to school. Will we be hot and dry or rainy and muggy?

WHAT ‘typical’ pattern are referring to?? The one where we can expect a couple of T-storms to build up along the coast and move northwestward as the day progresses, as I experienced in the late 70’s, early 80’s? Or the one where our pine trees die due to drought conditions for months at a time, that we experienced in the early 2000’s?? Or the pattern where we get 20+” of rain in a week we’ve seen post-Katrina??

What’s ‘typical’ these days??

CrashTestDummy wrote:WHAT ‘typical’ pattern are referring to?? The one where we can expect a couple of T-storms to build up along the coast and move northwestward as the day progresses, as I experienced in the late 70’s, early 80’s? Or the one where our pine trees die due to drought conditions for months at a time, that we experienced in the early 2000’s?? Or the pattern where we get 20+” of rain in a week we’ve seen post-Katrina??

What’s ‘typical’ these days??

Well, as much as people obsess about the second scenario, it hardly is anything common, and is not even associated with true summer weather pattern orientation across the country. So that can be ruled out handedly.

FunNestle wrote:

CrashTestDummy wrote:WHAT ‘typical’ pattern are referring to?? The one where we can expect a couple of T-storms to build up along the coast and move northwestward as the day progresses, as I experienced in the late 70’s, early 80’s? Or the one where our pine trees die due to drought conditions for months at a time, that we experienced in the early 2000’s?? Or the pattern where we get 20+” of rain in a week we’ve seen post-Katrina??

What’s ‘typical’ these days??

Well, as much as people obsess about the second scenario, it hardly is anything common, and is not even associated with true summer weather pattern orientation across the country. So that can be ruled out handedly.

It seems to me you are 'cherry picking' facts to fit an agenda. As a lifelong resident the Houston Area, I've seen many patterns over 60 years that verified from droughts to floods during summer months. Every year brings different weather patterns. Last year we witnessed above normal rainfall prior to Harvey. This year we've witnessed an unusually deep trough lately across the Central/Eastern US. That is not unheard of. Past history shows us that it does happen as Hemispheric Patterns change. Over the course of historical data, this is not anything out of the ordinary. Careful cherry picking current patterns to fit an agenda. Historically we have seen such patterns currently unfolding that are not unheard of.

A nice cool August 1st morning across SE TX with upper 60s and low to mid 70s. There are also a few areas of patchy fog. Mostly sunny skies and highs in the mid 90s today and tomorrow.

July was very generous with the rain this year. Here’s to hoping for a wet August as well...just not all at once.

Today is another Air Quality Alert day. We tend to see more of those in August / September.

Air quality alert is right. My lungs got accustomed to breathing in mountain air, and then I got back to discover that I do not in fact possess a set of gills to breathe in this Houston air.

srainhoutx wrote:It seems to me you are 'cherry picking' facts to fit an agenda. As a lifelong resident the Houston Area, I've seen many patterns over 60 years that verified from droughts to floods during summer months. Every year brings different weather patterns. Last year we witnessed above normal rainfall prior to Harvey. This year we've witnessed an unusually deep trough lately across the Central/Eastern US. That is not unheard of. Past history shows us that it does happen as Hemispheric Patterns change. Over the course of historical data, this is not anything out of the ordinary. Careful cherry picking current patterns to fit an agenda. Historically we have seen such patterns currently unfolding that are not unheard of.

Still doesn't change the fact that some patterns are clearly less common and/or normal during summer than others. No agenda, just plain fact.

Also note that I'm speaking in terms of expected climate paradigm when I refer to "true summer pattern." That is, you expect certain climates to behave in similar ways, regarding precipitation patterns and the like. And it's clear that the waviness of the jet stream across North America is responsible for deviation from this expected pattern: geographer Glenn Trewartha identified these deviations as "problem climates" (very informative book based on that concept). The wavy jet streams ends up dragging out westerly influence into summer at latitudes they would otherwise be absent in, forcing an amplified ridge out west that is "slanted SE" in a way that induces subsidence over Texas. The low-latitude presence of the westerlies associated with the Texas summer drought pattern indicates more of a winter/spring/fall pattern that just so happens to be showing up in summer; just to underscore, during the recent dry period in Texas this July, a summer Nor'easter formed along the Eastern US. Yes, a Nor'easter.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/cap ... 73b6478802

https://twitter.com/StuOstro/status/1019714184685158400

jasons wrote:July was very generous with the rain this year. Here’s to hoping for a wet August as well...just not all at once.

Today is another Air Quality Alert day. We tend to see more of those in August / September.

Air quality alerts from ozone peak during late spring and early fall. Funny enough, there's actually a minimum during summer over Houston.

HGX forecast August 1, 2018

Cromagnum wrote:Air quality alert is right. My lungs got accustomed to breathing in mountain air, and then I got back to discover that I do not in fact possess a set of gills to breathe in this Houston air.

I sure felt it this morning with the stagnant air. Part of my run is along one of the ‘feeder streets’ that cuts through the neighborhood, and I was breathing a LOT of car exhaust. Not fun.

FunNestle wrote:

jasons wrote:July was very generous with the rain this year. Here’s to hoping for a wet August as well...just not all at once.

Today is another Air Quality Alert day. We tend to see more of those in August / September.

Air quality alerts from ozone peak during late spring and early fall. Funny enough, there's actually a minimum during summer over Houston.

It tends to happen on days when the wind is calm...like today. Nowhere for all those pollutants to go.

jasons wrote:July was very generous with the rain this year. Here’s to hoping for a wet August as well...just not all at once.

Today is another Air Quality Alert day. We tend to see more of those in August / September.

Not as much rain here in July. Yesterday finished at 0.75 in - I'll take it. The good news is the northerly winds and dry conditions (dew point = 56°F) resulting in a heat index lower than the temperature! Air quality if fine up here. A 20% chance of rain during the weekend...then back to the upper 90s. The extended forecast on GFS has a heightened chance of showers the following weekend as well, with retrograde weakness under the ridge. We'll see.


We generally don't see much rain in August in CLL without something tropical until the last week of the month.

jasons wrote:

FunNestle wrote:

jasons wrote:July was very generous with the rain this year. Here’s to hoping for a wet August as well...just not all at once.

Today is another Air Quality Alert day. We tend to see more of those in August / September.

Air quality alerts from ozone peak during late spring and early fall. Funny enough, there's actually a minimum during summer over Houston.

It tends to happen on days when the wind is calm...like today. Nowhere for all those pollutants to go.

We have some advection 10-15 mph NNE winds up here. Our dew points are about 6-7°F lower as well. Maybe the breeze will reach you all soon.

The afternoon guidance suggests we are likely to settle into a typical and potentially unsettled pattern regime as the weekend arrives. A return flow off the Gulf with embedded disturbances dropping into our Region combined with increasing moisture values nearing 2 inches continuing into next week may provide some relief with clouds and increasing shower/storm chances. The afternoon Updated Day 6 to 10 Outlook from the Climate Prediction Center reflect those possibilities. I also don't particularly like seeing Mid August 1983 showing up as an analog with a deep Western trough ahead.