Wx Infinity Forums

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN JUL 31 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a strong and fast-moving
tropical wave now entering the extreme eastern Caribbean Sea are
disorganized, while satellite data and surface observations indicate
no signs of a closed surface circulation. Although some gradual
development of this system is possible during the next couple of
days, the chance for tropical cyclone formation should increase
after the wave reaches the western Caribbean Sea in a couple of
days. This disturbance is expected to bring locally heavy rains and
gusty winds to portions of the Lesser Antilles, the Virgin Islands,
and Puerto Rico today. These conditions should spread westward
across the eastern and central Caribbean Sea tonight and reach
Hispaniola on Monday. Interests in these areas and elsewhere in the
Caribbean Sea should continue to monitor the progress of this
system. For additional information on this system, see High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent

Sunday morning briefing from Jeff:

Tropical cyclone increasingly likely over the southern Gulf of Mexico by the end of the week

Residents in the west Caribbean Sea and western Gulf of Mexico…including Texas…should closely monitor the progress of this system

Discussion:
97L passed over the Leeward Islands overnight with strong gusty winds and squalls, but as expected surface observations showed no low level circulation. While the feature continues to look well organized on satellite images, the fast forward motion is preventing any surface circulation from forming and a westerly wind on the south side from closing off a surface low. The wave continues to move rapidly westward at 25-30mph on the south side of a strong sub-tropical ridge over the central Atlantic Ocean. While a few models show near term development, this fast forward motion should preclude any sustained development for the next 24-48 hours.

Track:
Global and hurricane track models are in good agreement that 97L will continue rapidly westward for the next 24-48 hours with strong high pressure to the north producing a strong easterly steering flow across the Caribbean Sea. After 48 hours the system will be reaching the western Caribbean Sea and begins to slow down and this is where model guidance begins to diverge with a few models taking a more WNW and then NW track and other continuing along on a nearly due W track. Much of the track forecast over the Gulf of Mexico by late next week and next weekend will hinge on the intensity of the system and the movement and break down of a high pressure ridge over TX. A stronger more defined system will turn more poleward finding the developing weakness over TX in the height field and this is suggested by the latest operational GFS and many of the GFS ensemble runs. While a weaker system will likely continue along toward the west trapped under the low to mid level ridge over the central Gulf of Mexico as suggested by the EURO and UKMET. I am not finding either the HWRF nor GFDL hurricane models of much use right now with the HWRF (extreme intensity) and the GFDL (showing little development).

Intensity:
Not expecting much intensity changes over the next 48 hours as 97L continues rapidly westward. Once over the western Caribbean is where global models begin to show differing degrees of development as the system slows and conditions become increasingly favorable. Generally the system will likely track over the Yucatan and then emerge in the Gulf of Mexico late this week or early next weekend where conditions look very favorable for development. Wind shear is forecast to be light, sea surface temperatures are very warm, and the system will have plentiful moisture surrounding it. If an inner core can become established either over the western Caribbean Sea or Gulf of Mexico…faster intensification would be possible. Over 40% of the GFS ensemble members bring 97L to hurricane intensity over the western Gulf of Mexico while less than 10% of the EURO ensemble members show a hurricane. This is likely a direct correlation to the track forecast with the GFS much further north and over the Gulf a long period of time versus the EURO further south and over the Bay of Campeche a shorter period of time.

Impacts:
At this time the uncertainty remains too great to discuss any impacts to the TX coast. Will go ahead and bump up rain chances for Friday-Sunday due to the ridge weakening aloft and possible bands of rain approaching from the SE on the northern flank of any southern Gulf tropical system. Will likely need to start ramping up long period swells in the outer waters by Friday and then on the coast by Saturday depending on how large and intense the system becomes which will likely start to affect coastal tides by early next weekend.

Actions:
Residents along the TX coast should review your hurricane preparation plans. Those without a plan…now would be a good time to develop one. Monitor weather information sources daily and keep up to date on the forecast of this system.

The latest tropical weather outlook from NHC gives 97L a now 70% chance of development over the next 5 days.

We began issuing advisories on this system yesterday. I think it's almost certain that it will develop into at least a tropical storm in the southwestern Gulf next Thursday or Friday. Nothing would prevent it from becoming a hurricane except time over the water. Right now, a track toward Tampico, MX looks more likely, but I certainly wouldn't rule out a Texas hurricane threat next Friday/Saturday.

Time to watch the tropics closely and go through your hurricane kits one last time. Get anything you need now, don't wait for the big rush that may come later this week.

I would like to thank both of our pro-mets for not closing the door to 97L having an affect on the Texas coastline.We all on the KHOU forum need to keep an eye on this system.I'm confident that srainhoutx and our pro-mets won't allow us to drop our guard.

wxman57 wrote:We began issuing advisories on this system yesterday. I think it's almost certain that it will develop into at least a tropical storm in the southwestern Gulf next Thursday or Friday. Nothing would prevent it from becoming a hurricane except time over the water. Right now, a track toward Tampico, MX looks more likely, but I certainly wouldn't rule out a Texas hurricane threat next Friday/Saturday.

Time to watch the tropics closely and go through your hurricane kits one last time. Get anything you need now, don't wait for the big rush that may come later this week.

Right - the upper level ridge over TX is likely to be weakened and sliding N next weekend. Anything can happen, and we've had a few dull years in the western Gulf. The Water in its path is very warm with little wind shear above..

97L stays at 40/70 for the 2PM TWO:

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN JUL 31 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a strong and fast-moving
tropical wave over the eastern Caribbean Sea have changed little in
organization this morning, and there are still no signs of a closed
surface circulation. Although some gradual development of this
system is possible during the next day or so, the chance for
tropical cyclone formation should increase after the wave reaches
the western Caribbean Sea in a couple of days. This disturbance is
expected to cause locally heavy rains and gusty winds over portions
of the Lesser Antilles, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico today
and tonight. These conditions should spread westward across the
central Caribbean Sea and reach Hispaniola by Monday and Jamaica and
Cuba by Tuesday. Interests in these areas and elsewhere in the
Caribbean Sea should continue to monitor the progress of this
system. For additional information on this system, see High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and on
the Web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.

Forecaster Kimberlain

Levi Cowan ‏@TropicalTidbits · 20m20 minutes ago
Worth noting that the 18Z ATCF position for 97L is about 200 km too far south. Model initialization points a bit off

DoctorMu wrote:

Right - the upper level ridge over TX is likely to be weakened and sliding N next weekend. Anything can happen, and we've had a few dull years in the western Gulf. The Water in its path is very warm with little wind shear above..

http://static.baynews9.com/images/wx/bn9/60min/TCHP.jpg

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/a ... wg8sht.GIF

If conditions are right with low wind shear and moist air, it could undergo explosive intensification. Also, if it slows down as well.

Levi Cowan ‏@TropicalTidbits · 16m16 minutes ago
Buoy south of 97L shows falling pressure, and easterly winds slowing down due to the surface low eroding trade winds

It appears to me that we may be witnessing the beginning of TC Genesis somewhere South of Mona Passage or Hispaniola during the next 24 hours

The National Hurricane Center increased chances of a Tropical Cyclone developing in the next 48 hours to 50% with the 8:00 PM EDT Outlook.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN JUL 31 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a strong and fast-moving
tropical wave over the east-central Caribbean Sea continue to show
signs of organization, but there is still no evidence of a closed
surface circulation. This system has the potential to become a
tropical cyclone when the wave reaches the western Caribbean Sea in
a couple of days. The disturbance is expected to cause locally
heavy rains and gusty winds over portions of the Leeward Islands,
the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico tonight. These conditions are also
spreading across Hispaniola, and should reach Jamaica and Cuba by
late Monday as the wave moves westward near 25 mph over the central
Caribbean Sea. Interests in these areas and elsewhere in the western
Caribbean Sea should continue to monitor the progress of this
system. For additional information on this system, see High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and on
the Web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.

Forecaster Pasch

Pretty strong ridge I assume.

Starting to look good now.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... imated.gif

Wow, starting to ramp up.

https://twitter.com/weathergeneral/stat ... 4333165568

Hmmmm

MontgomeryCoWx wrote:https://twitter.com/weathergeneral/stat ... 4333165568

Hmmmm

What tha?

Aside from 97l....

Take a breath before checking the long range of the 0z GFS. Classic track and setup for a big Texas cane. Keep in mind that its extremely long range but it already has mine and josh's attention.

Scott747 wrote:Aside from 97l....

Take a breath before checking the long range of the 0z GFS. Classic track and setup for a big Texas cane. Keep in mind that its extremely long range but it already has mine and josh's attention.

Yea ridging sets up over central/eastern Gulf Coast. Could be cause for concern if synoptics stay the same.

That's twice in less than 24 hours the GFS solution has shown up. Could be a long couple of weeks monitoring. Tis the season..