January-Foggy Mornings/Cool & Cloudy To The Month

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

I see nothing that looks warm across our Region into the first 10 Days of January. Brrr...

12252014 12Z GFS 360 gfs_T2ma_namer_47.png

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

*ugh* I miss summer.

Cant get here soon enough.

Where oh where is my violin????

[brooksgarner]

Happy January 2nd! Looking for another misty, drizzly day across southeast TX. Still, significant icing potential (in progress) in central/west, panhandle region... A totally different world up there today... No wintry weather here in southeast TX, but with 40s and low 50s for highs, it'll feel more like New England in March, than Houston in January.

Tonight a strong upper system -- resulting from that arctic blast for the southwest -- approaches and enhances our jet stream dynamics (upper-level divergence), resulting in convection (elevated) with overnight storms. Some storms I see as potentially severe with wind gusts the main threat. Low level jet develops with 40kt winds... A downdraft could easily translate that to the ground with gusts over 50mph around sunrise tomorrow. Modest hail potential too...

Then, looking for subsidence behind the front tomorrow and sunshine breaking out by lunch, for a pleasant Saturday afternoon.

After all this chilly weather, low 60s for highs tomorrow will feel delightful.

Anyone going to work today?
-Brooks

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[srainhoutx]

The upper trough that has brought snowy and icy conditions very far S into the SW and the Southern Rockies/Southern Plains finally begins to organize a second 700mb low over Southern New Mexico/NW Texas later today and begins to lift NE toward the Mid West/Great Lakes Region Saturday into Sunday. A very moist disturbance rides SE along the Northern stream ushering in another shot of cold Canadian air as the SW low pulls additional Eastern Pacific moisture over a cold modified air mass entrenched across West Central/NW Texas into Central Oklahoma where the stage is set for over running freezing rain and sleet that will cause treacherous conditions with numerous travel issues extending from Southern New Mexico into Southern Missouri. In the warm sector, strong to severe storms may develop as a Western Gulf low develops tonight and a warm front retreats N along the Central Gulf Coast where the SPC has placed a Slight Risk for Severe Storms across portions of SE Louisiana/Mississippi into Alabama later this weekend as the busy Holiday travel period comes to an end.

01022014 07Z Low Tracks lowtrack_ensembles.gif

01022014 0745Z Snow 2 inch prb_24hsnow_ge02_2015010212f024.gif

01022014 Ice 10th inch prb_24hicez_ge_10_2015010212f024.gif

01022015 SPC Day 2 day2otlk_0700.gif

01022015 Departs fro Mormal Temps t0.gif

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z NAM suggests freezing temperatures and even some frost into the Western and Northern areas of SE Texas may be possible Monday Morning as we head back to work and school.

01022015 12Z NAM nam_T2m_scus_25.png

[srainhoutx]

The Extended Range Discussion suggests that E of the Continental Divide could be cold as additional chilly Canadian Air settles S into the Plains and on toward the East Coast.

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
159 AM EST FRI JAN 02 2015

VALID 12Z MON JAN 05 2015 - 12Z FRI JAN 09 2015

HIGHLY-AMPLIFIED FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTH AMERICAN CONTINENT
PRODUCES A STRONG RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST AND INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST---WITH A COLD TROUGH EXPECTED TO ANCHOR OVER EASTERN HALF OF
THE CONTINENT. THE WPC BLEND THIS MORNING UTILIZED THE 1/12Z ECENS
MEANS...ITS DETERMINISTIC RUN AND THE 1/18Z GEFS MEAN THROUGH DAY
5...TRIMMING BACK THE 1/12Z DETERMINISTIC ECMWF INPUT FOR DAYS
6-7...AND MAINTAINING A 2/3RDS ECENS AND 1/3RD GEFS APPROACH FOR
DAYS 6-7.

THE FORECAST CHALLENGE THIS MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD WILL BE
TEMPERATURES---TO THE EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...FROM NORTH
CENTRAL MONTANA TO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. BY DAY 7...THE
CHALLENGE SHIFTS TO THE WEST...AND TIMING THE ONSET OF
PRECIPITATION---WITH A SLOW...EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF TROUGHING
AND EMBEDDED MID-LEVEL---FROM THE EAST CENTRAL PACIFIC TO THE US
MAINLAND.

THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BOIL DOWN TO TIMING THE
ENTRANCE AND EXIT OF SEVERAL COLD...CANADIAN HIGHS THAT SETTLE
ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL PORTION OF THE NATION. IN PARTICULAR...THE
SHALLOW NATURE OF THE COLD AIRMASS ALONG ITS WESTERN FLANKS...AND
THE WIND SHIFTS---FROM UPSLOPE TO DOWNSLOPE---ABOVE ~2500FT MSL.
THE SURFACE HIGHS THAT SPREAD THROUGH THE LOWER 48 THIS
PERIOD---APPEAR TO BE IN THE 1044MB-1048MB RANGE...WITH THE
LEADING EDGE OF ARCTIC AIR SPREADING TO THE GULF COAST...LOWER RIO
GRANDE VALLEY AND SOUTH CENTRAL FLORIDA.

FROM A MASS FIELD PERSPECTIVE...THERE WAS NOT MUCH DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN THE 1/18Z GEFS AND 1/12Z ECENS WITH RESPECT TO THE
SUCCESSION OF CANADIAN SURFACE HIGHS THAT MIGRATE SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO THE LOWER 48 THIS MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD.

IN THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE...THE SUBTLE DIFFERENCES ARE TIED TO
THE 'RELATIVE' STRENGTH OF A 'CLIPPER-TYPE' SYSTEM MIGRATING
ACROSS THE MISSOURI VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES BETWEEN DAYS 4 AND 6.
IN ITS WAKE...A SECONDARY SURGE OF CANADIAN AIR DOES MOVE INTO THE
LOWER 48---BUT THE QUESTION CONCERNS THE TRAJECTORY OF THE COLDEST
AIR...BEGINNING IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS...THEN SPREADING EAST INTO
THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST. THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDING IN BEHIND
THIS 'CLIPPER' SHOULD SETTLE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AROUND DAY
6...BUT THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WHETHER A SECOND CLIPPER DEVELOPS ON
DAY 6-7 OVER SOUTHEASTERN ALBERTA OR THE FRONT RANGE OF THE
COLORADO ROCKIES. AND WITH "THOSE SUBTLE DIFFERENCES" IN THE
SOLUTIONS...DOES COLD AIR REMAIN LODGED IN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS? I PREFERRED THE ECMWF VERSION FOR SOME OF THE
DETAILS...ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER DAYS 4-6...AND WEST OF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE DAYS 6-7 FOR THE ENERGY THAT 'UNDERCUTS' THE
BROAD UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE.

"THOSE SUBTLE DIFFERENCES" APPEARED TO BE ROOTED IN THE TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF EAST PACIFIC ENERGY MIGRATING INTO THE WEST COAST. IT
IS A BIT MORE COMPLEX OF A FORECAST HERE---AS THE EAST PACIFIC
ENERGY INTERACTS WITH THE RIDGE...THE ENERGY SPLITS---GENERALLY
ALONG 140W LONGITUDE. PART OF THE ENERGY AND MOISTURE ROTATES
NORTHWARD INTO THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE GULF OF ALASKA AND SOME
ENERGY...ALBEIT...A MUCH WEAKER MID-LEVEL ENERGY STREAM...MIGRATES
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHWEST QUARTER OF THE NATION. IN
ESSENCE...'UNDERCUTTING' THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE---WITHOUT ACTUALLY
DISLODGING IT ALONG THE CANADIAN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN GREAT BASIN.
THIS 'SOUTHERN ENERGY' IS WHERE THE FRONT RANGE 'CLIPPER' EMERGES
ON/JUST AFTER DAY 6. SUSPECT THAT IN THE COMING DAYS...MORE DETAIL
SHOULD EMERGE...AND WHETHER OR NOT...SOME ADDITIONAL WEAKNESS IN
THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE DOES DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ALASKA
PANHANDLE AND SOUTHWEST BC.

...SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...
PRECIPITATION EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOULD FOCUS ALONG/AHEAD OF THE
FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHEAST---WITH SOME WINTRY
PRECIP POSSIBLE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. BEHIND THIS FRONT...HIGH
PRESSURE AND COLD AIR DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD---EAST OF THE DIVIDE
WITH SOME UPSLOPE SNOWS FOR MONTANA...WYOMING AND THE FRONT RANGE
OF COLORADO.

LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...A COLDER AND DRIER REGIME EAST OF
THE DIVIDE AND SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOWFALLS FOR THE
GREAT LAKES WITH 850MB TEMPS NEAR/COLDER THE M20C AND LAKE WATER
TEMPS IN THE 2-5C RANGE.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL WEST OF THE DIVIDE
AND COLDER THAN AVERAGE IN THE EAST...AVERAGING UP TO ABOUT 15F
BELOW CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD.
VOJTESAK

[srainhoutx]

01022015 mcd0005.gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0005
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1107 AM CST FRI JAN 02 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...THE PERMIAN BASIN AND LOW ROLLING PLAINS OF W TX

CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN

VALID 021707Z - 022130Z

SUMMARY...A BAND OF FREEZING RAIN WILL PERSIST FOR SEVERAL HOURS
ACROSS PARTS OF W TX WITH ICE ACCRETION RATES UP TO AROUND 0.10
IN/HR.

DISCUSSION...FREEZING RAIN HIGHLIGHTED EARLIER THIS MORNING WITHIN
MCD 0004 APPEARS LIKELY TO PERSIST FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. IR CLOUD
TOPS HAVE RECENTLY COOLED WITHIN A LOBE OF FORCED ASCENT DOWNSTREAM
OF THE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH CENTERED OVER SE AZ. THIS APPEARS
TO BE SUPPORTING CONTINUOUS REDEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION WITHIN ABOUT
A 50-MILE WIDE CONVEYOR BELT FROM THE TRANS-PECOS NE TOWARDS THE RED
RIVER. METAR/MESONET OBSERVATIONS CONFIRM SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN
THE 27-31 DEG F RANGE WITHIN THIS PRECIPITATION BAND. ALTHOUGH
NEAR-SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT...MAINTENANCE OF A NLY
COMPONENT WILL STILL YIELD CAA /ALBEIT QUITE WEAK/ TO SLOW LIMITED
DIURNAL HEATING. WITH AN ABOVE-FREEZING WARM NOSE SAMPLED BY 12Z MAF
RAOB...SETUP SHOULD YIELD PROLONGED ICE ACCUMULATIONS. THIS SCENARIO
APPEARS WELL SIMULATED BY 12Z 4KM WRF-NMM GUIDANCE.

..GRAMS.. 01/02/2015


ATTN...WFO...LUB...MAF...

[BlueJay]

Happy New Year to everyone!

I'm trying to work on this January 2, 2015. What a dreary day.

[Paul Robison]

Happy January 2nd! Looking for another misty, drizzly day across southeast TX. Still, significant icing potential (in progress) in central/west, panhandle region... A totally different world up there today... No wintry weather here in southeast TX, but with 40s and low 50s for highs, it'll feel more like New England in March, than Houston in January.

Tonight a strong upper system -- resulting from that arctic blast for the southwest -- approaches and enhances our jet stream dynamics (upper-level divergence), resulting in convection (elevated) with overnight storms. Some storms I see as potentially severe with wind gusts the main threat. Low level jet develops with 40kt winds... A downdraft could easily translate that to the ground with gusts over 50mph around sunrise tomorrow. Modest hail potential too...

Then, looking for subsidence behind the front tomorrow and sunshine breaking out by lunch, for a pleasant Saturday afternoon.

After all this chilly weather, low 60s for highs tomorrow will feel delightful.

Anyone going to work today?
-Brooks

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Hold it, Brooks. SPC does not include Houston in its marginal threat area. They place Beaumont in that threat area. Do you know something they don't?

[srainhoutx]

After a stormy night and what seems like days of dreary cold weather without any sunshine, it appears may get a break! The latest satellite imagery suggests that last of the pesky cold upper trough that has plagued our Region is beginning to lift out into the Plains. The last of the wintry weather is confined to Eastern New Mexico and the Panhandle as the upper low moves NE toward the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley. A strong front arrives tomorrow in the wake of the winter storm and should bring gusty winds and freezing temperatures almost to the Coastal Counties of Texas. It looks to be a bit warmer into Louisiana, but still chilly.

01032015 1440Z TX VIS latest.jpg

01032015 12Z NAM nam_T2m_us_17.png

The next shot of Canadian Continental Air is expected to arrive on Wednesday ushering in very gusty winds and very cold air with possible wind chill advisories needed for much of our Region including those to our E in Louisiana and the Central Gulf Coast. The fly in the ointment is another upper air disturbance to our West. If this feature moves in a bit quicker than expected and brings some mid and upper clouds across the area, then the temperatures will likely not be as cold as currently forecasted. This shot of very cold air with its 1050mb+ Canadian High Pressure cell looks to be a quick hitter for Texas, but to our N and E the very cold air could be entrenched most of the late week into next weekend.

01032015 00Z GFS gfs_T2m_namer_23.png

01032015 00Z GFS 132 gfs_ir_us_23.png

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z GFS is a bit 'colder' than the 00Z run, but the wild card continues to be the upper air disturbance to our West advancing E with its mid/high level clouds and moisture. It would likely be too dry at the surface for any of that moisture to survive the dry low levels, but we are in the 120 hour range, so it is worth monitoring. Regardless, the 2 meter temperatures are worrisome and suggest a hard freeze could be likely into the Coastal Counties of Matagorda Bay on E into Louisiana.

01032015 12Z GFS 120 gfs_T2m_us_21.png

01032015 12Z GFS 120 gfs_ir_us_21.png

[Katdaddy]

1.26" of rain overnight with quite a bit of lightening and thunder. Most of the rain and thunderstorms have moved offshore or into LA. There are clearing skies across Central TX that should arrive this afternoon.

[srainhoutx]

The Storm Prediction Center has issued a Tornado Watch until 6:00 PM CST for portions of Central/SE Louisiana into Mississippi...

01032015 Tornado Watch ww0001_radar.gif

[srainhoutx]

Morning Update from the Weather Prediction Center regarding our mid week strong blast of very cold air...

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1057 AM EST SAT JAN 03 2015

VALID 12Z TUE JAN 06 2015 - 12Z SAT JAN 10 2015

...COLD BLAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL/EASTERN/SOUTHERN STATES
MIDWEEK...


...OVERVIEW...

HIGHLY-AMPLIFIED FLOW PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA WILL PRODUCE
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE COUNTRY EAST OF
THE ROCKIES NEXT WEEK. ALONG THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA... AN
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL PREVAIL DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD
BEFORE A SERIES OF PACIFIC SYSTEMS WILL FIND A WEAKNESS IN THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE RIDGE AND MOVE INTO THE PAC NW AND PAST THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.

...MODEL PREFERENCES...

ENSEMBLES WERE GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE END OF NEXT
WEEK THANKS TO A FAIRLY PREDICTABLE AMPLIFIED PATTERN. A BLEND OF
THE 06Z PARALLEL GFS AND 00Z ECMWF/ECENS MEAN OFFERED A GOOD
STARTING POINT TO THE FORECAST. RECENT 00Z/06Z OPERATIONAL GFS
RUNS SEEMED TO SUFFER FROM CONTINUITY ISSUES OVER ALASKA AND THE
EASTERN PACIFIC... MAKING THEIR USE LIMITED IN THE WESTERN DOMAIN.
FARTHER EAST... STRENGTH/LOCATION OF IMPRESSIVE SFC HIGH PRESSURE
WAS THE FORECAST CHALLENGE -- IMPACTING THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
NEAR 1060MB HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST BY THE MODELS WHICH WOULD
APPROACH OR EXCEED MONTHLY MAXIMUM VALUES FOR THE HIGH PLAINS.

...SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...

ON TUESDAY THE CLIPPER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO GENERATE A SWATH OF
SNOWFALL FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY BEFORE EXITING
THE NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY. IN ITS WAKE... THE DEPTH OF THE COLD
AIR SUPPORTS LAKE-EFFECT SNOWS FOR THE GREAT LAKES AND ALONG THE
SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS INTO NEW ENGLAND FOR MUCH OF THE MEDIUM
RANGE PERIOD. CORE OF 850 TEMP ANOMALIES SHOULD SPLIT E-W... ONE
CHUNK MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHEAST AND THE
OTHER OVER TEXAS -- STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES IN THE -2 TO -3.5 SIGMA
RANGE WILL SUPPORT LOWS NEAR FREEZING TO THE GULF COAST.

WITH THE CANADIAN HIGH MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD MIDWEEK... HIGH AND
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE A GOOD 15-30F BELOW AVERAGE IN THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND THEN SPREAD EASTWARD AND SOUTHWARD AS THE
STRONG HIGH SINKS INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. MANY LOCATIONS WILL
EXPERIENCE THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON BY 10-15F.

IN CONTRAST... TEMPERATURES IN THE WEST WILL BE ABOUT 10-15F ABOVE
AVERAGE... WITH THE EXCEPTIONS BEING IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS OF
THE GREAT BASIN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES WHERE STRONG INVERSIONS WILL
LIMIT THE OTHERWISE BROAD-SCALE WARMUP. PRECIPITATION WILL BE
LIMITED TO THE PAC NW LATER IN THE WEEK WHILE CALIFORNIA AND THE
DESERT SW SHOULD STAY DRY.


FRACASSO/VOJTESAK

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z Euro suggests a 1055mb+ High across the Central Plains on Wednesday will push a very strong front S into Texas. By early Thursday the Euro is onboard with the other global determinist guidance suggesting a 1044mb High settles over Central Texas with freezing temperatures across our Region. The Euro also has the Western upper air disturbance approaching, so we will see if mid/high level clouds protect us from a hard freeze early Thursday morning.

01032015 12Z Euro f120.gif

[harpman]

If only that disturbance could squeeze out some moisture with that cold air in place......

[BlueJay]

If only that disturbance could squeeze out some moisture with that cold air in place......

........then we would have ice!?!

[harpman]

Not neccessarily.

[ronyan]

Not neccessarily.

It could be snow, the Euro shows 0C 850mb isotherm past Houston on Thursday. My feeling on this is it will be a dry front but very cold.

[harpman]

I'm in New Orleans, so I'm looking at it from a different perspective.